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ABSTRACTDiversification is routinely promoted to improve poor rural peoples' livelihoods. However, policy recommendations for livelihood diversification based on evidence from crop‐cultivating sedentary rural societies may not work for mobile pastoral communities, where socio‐ecological conditions predetermine livestock herding as the preferred livelihood strategy. Using survey and semi‐structured interview data collected from 159 households in the Altay and Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, China, this study applies cluster analysis to identify six distinct groups based on livelihood strategies: pastoralists, agropastoralists, crop farmers, wage labourers, hired herders and mixed smallholders. Although pastoralism is the least diverse of these in terms of sources of income, it is significantly more diverse in ecological dimensions such as spatial movement, land use pattern and livestock portfolio. Patterns of livelihood diversification and their relationship with household incomes indicate that pastoralism, although preferred, is unattainable for 55 per cent of households given their meagre asset endowments and the pressure of government policies toward sedentarization. The results strongly suggest that livelihood diversification does not improve welfare for pastoral households. Future development interventions should promote policies that enable households to regain flexible access to pastures and should aim to correct the imbalance of opportunities that exists in northern Xinjiang.

Subjective risk perceptions give rise to unique policy implications as they reflect both the expectation of risk exposure and the ability to mitigate or cope with the adverse impacts. Based on data collected from semistructured interviews and iterative ranking exercises with 159 households in the Altay and Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang, China, this study investigates and explains the risks with respect to a seriously understudied population and location. Using both geostatistical and econometric methods, we show that although fear of environmental crisis is prevalent among our respondents, recently implemented pastoral conservation, sedentarization, and development projects are more likely to be ranked as the top concerns among affected households. In order to reduce these concerns, future pastoral policy must be built on the livestock economy, and intervention priority should be given to the geographic areas identified as risk hot spots. In cases where pastoralists have to give up their pastures, the transition to other comparable livelihood strategies must be enabled by creating new opportunities and training pastoralists to acquire the needed skills.

After the Wenchuan earthquake (magnitude 7.9, May 12, 2008), intensive debates on how China should establish a natural disaster insurance system were initiated among researchers, policymakers, and insurance professionals. Our focus was the social aspects of disaster insurance, explored in China through a nationwide survey. Our questionnaires investigated people's risk awareness, insurance acceptance, their opinions on governmental measures for disaster management, and their willingness to pay for disaster house insurance. We analyzed the results at both regional and individual scales. We found that the integrated hazard index and respondents' experience of insurance (considered objective factors), and their opinions on the importance of insurance and government responsibility (considered subjective factors) showed strong correlation with the regional overall acceptance of disaster insurance. An individual's decision to participate highly depended on his/her experience of both insurance and disaster and his/her opinion on the importance of insurance as a coping mechanism. Respondents from poverty‐stricken or less‐developed counties were not necessarily more reluctant to accept natural disaster insurance, though they exhibited relatively lower ability to afford insurance. In general, respondents had correct perceptions of natural disasters in their areas; however, people from regions with a greater multihazard threat showed less willingness to accept disaster insurance because they tended to expect the government to undertake to cover losses and considered insurance to be less important. People's willingness to pay for an assumed disaster house insurance was also investigated and analyzed. We consequently discuss the policy implications for developing a disaster insurance system in China.