Suchergebnisse

Theoretical basis for presenting research results in agricultural science is mathematical statistics and probability theory using empirical forms of generalization of experimental data. To improve the methods of planning field experiment and processing its data using digital technologies, we proposed to use mathematical modeling based on physical principle of balance of cause-and-effect interactions in a closed physical system as a priority option. When analyzing impact of environmental factors on crop yields, the initial provisions, the mathematical modeling of the crop yield is based, on are not associated with characteristics of crops and natural conditions, therefore, the model options are universal in application and are valid for any agricultural crop, regardless of the region of cultivation. To ensure statistically correct digital information, based on the established forms of mathematical model, the field experiment layout aimed at establishing the dependence of the crop yield on yield-forming factors should include at least 4 options for nutritional levels (NPK) with a research duration of at least 4 years. To check the accuracy of the developed crop yield model, the data of independent field experiments of Professor N.N. Semenenko with barley and winter triticale has been used. It has been determined that, in Belarus, yield-forming factors, as a result of their impact on the grain yield, are arranged in the following decreasing sequence: total dose of applied NPK º the amount of precipitation during the active phases of growing season → air temperature for the same period. Calculations have shown that decrease in the number of yield-forming factors taken into account in the mathematical model from three (food, moisture and heat) to two (food and moisture) reduces the accuracy of calculating the grain crop yield insignificantly.

The programming (simulation) of yield in the area of "risky farming" that Belarus belongs to according to data from a single-factor experiment considering only the food mode, can lead to unacceptably large errors in the calculations. These errors can easily be avoided by increasing the factorality of agronomic experiment by using standard meteorological data processed using mathematical model of crop yields. A mathematical model of environmental factors effect on crop yields is proposed and tested. It is shown that the accuracy of yield simulation (calculation) increases with the growing number of crop-forming factors taken into account. The possibilities of mathematical simulation allowing to switch from one-factor to multifactorial agronomic research are demonstrated, involving meteorological data characterizing the moisture and heat availability of the vegetation period when analyzing the results of the experiment as additional information. The moisture supply conditions can be characterized quite accurately by atmospheric precipitation during the vegetation period, and the heat supply – by the maximum daily air temperatures in the same period. Inclusion in analysis of additional water and heat factors of yield makes it possible not only to increase the factorality of field experiment, but also to substantially increase the conclusions validity according to the results based on the proposed mathematical model.