Suchergebnisse

This thesis deals with the role of opium as a conflict resource in the Myanmar civil war. It poses the question whether some actors have developed an interest in deliberately prolonging the conflict because they perceive war as more profitable than peace. The topic has been chosen because there is little to be found in the literature which influence opium has had on the longevity and intensity of the conflicts in Myanmar. The thesis therefore aims to shed light on some of the actors and structures which are connected to the narcotics trade and investigates whether some actors sabotage or have incentives to sabotage the Nationwide Ceasefire Process (NCA) that is still ongoing. The thesis uses the concept of spoilers in peace processes to analyze the conflict. The method is framed by using theories on the role of natural resources on civil wars and on shadow and war economies and black markets. The thesis also makes references to peace and conflict research concepts such as structural violence. The data used comes from five expert interviews, reports by for example the UNODC and the Transnational Institute (TNI), academic literature and news resources. The study found that currently nobody engaged in the narcotics trade has an interest ins sabotaging the NCA for several reasons, one is that a potential ceasefire is unlikely to affect the opium business at all. On the contrary, many former insurgent groups' drug trade activities have started to thrive since they agreed to a ceasefire with the government. This means that a ceasefire, understood as a form of negative peace in this thesis, is perceived more profitable than continued warfare. The NCA might be still threatened by actors because of other reasons, especially political ones. Spoilers might still emerge in the future. The study results point towards other areas, especially the conflict potential of other natural resources such as gemstones and timber as well as to the political reasons for spoiling.

Maģistra darba nosaukums ir "Diskriminācijas pēc vecuma aizliegums un to regulējošo tiesību normu efektivitāte Latvijā". Darbā ir analizēts diskriminācijas jēdziens saturs, diskriminācijas pēc vecuma tiesiskais regulējums starptautiskajās un ES tiesībās, aprakstīta Eiropas Padomes direktīva 2000/78 EK un minētās direktīvas transponēšana Latvijā un citās ES dalībvalstīs. Darbā, izmantojot statistikas datus un aptauju rezultātus, noskaidrota sabiedrības izpratne par diskriminācijas jautājumiem un situāciju Latvijā, attieksme pret diskriminācijas novēršanu un iedzīvotāju informētība par aizskarto tiesību aizsardzības iespējām. Darba izstrādes gaitā ir analizēti Eiropas Kopienu tiesas prejudiciālie nolēmumi, ES dalībvalstu vienlīdzīgas attieksmes iestāžu lēmumi, kā arī Latvijas Satversmes tiesas un vispārējās jurisdikcijas tiesu spriedumi diskriminācijas pēc vecuma aizlieguma pārkāpuma gadījumos. Darbā vērtēta Latvijas normatīvā regulējuma un diskriminācijas upuru tiesiskās aizsardzības iespēju atbilstība Nodarbinātības direktīvas prasībām, kuras mērķis ir nepieļaut un apkarot diskrimināciju, tai skaitā, pēc vecuma un izveidot kopēju sistēmu vienlīdzīgai attieksmei pret nodarbinātību, profesiju un profesionālo apmācību. Darbā analizētas diskriminācijas pēc vecuma aizlieguma piemērošanas tiesiskās problēmas, novērtēta esošā tiesiskā regulējuma efektivitāte, izteikti priekšlikumi apzināto problēmu risināšanai Par tēmas aktualitāti liecina diskriminācijas pēc vecuma ietekme uz personas sociālo statusu, kā arī uz valsts ekonomisko situāciju un ilgtermiņa attīstības rādītājiem. ; The topic of the master paper is "Prohibition of the Age Discrimination and Efficiency of the Legislation Regulating in Latvia". In the paper, the notion and the content of the term "discrimination" is analyzed, legal regulations on age discrimination in the international and EU law are examined, the Council Directive 2000/78/EC and transposing of the above mentioned directive into the legislation of Latvia and other EU Member States is analyzed. By analysing statistical data and survey results, the paper provides an explicit insight into the issues of discrimination and the situation in Latvia, attitude towards discrimination prevention and awareness of the inhabitants of possible right protection measures. When elaborating the paper, the preliminary rulings of the European Court of Justice, decisions of institutions of the EU Member States for equal attitude, as well as judgments of the Constitutional Court and the courts of general jurisdiction on breach of age discrimination prohibition were analyzed. In the paper, the author assesses Latvian normative regulation and preventive measures available to discrimination victims, as well as compliance thereof with the requirements of the Employment Directive, the objective of which is to prevent and eliminate discrimination, including age discrimination, and to form a common system for an equal attitude towards employment, profession and professional training. In the paper, legal problems regarding application of age discrimination prohibition is analysed, the effectiveness of the current legal regulation is assessed, suggestions for solving the problems highlighted are made. The urgency of the topic is proven by the influence of age discrimination on the social status of a person, as well as on the economic situation and indices of sustainable development of the State.

Autorzy zadają pytania o formy i rodzaje działalności publicznej Kurdów w Polsce w ciągu ostatniego półwiecza, o wpływ transformacji ustrojowej na tą działalność, a także o różnice i podobieństwa między działalnością diaspory kurdyjskiej w Polsce i w krajach zachodnich. Posługując się analizą dokumentów i literatury naukowej oraz obserwacją działalności opisywanych przez siebie organizacji, autorzy zwracają uwagę na różnice demograficzne między diasporą polską a diasporami zachodnimi, postępujące integrowanie się działalności publicznej Kurdów w Polsce z polskim życiem publicznym oraz na problem braku umiejętności wykorzystania kapitału społecznego członków diaspory do osiągania wspólnych, długofalowych celów. ; The authors raise questions about the forms and types of public activity of Kurds in Poland during the last half-century, the impact of the political transformation on this activity, and the similarities and differences between the activities of Kurdish minorities in Poland and in Western countries. On the basis of an analysis of documents and academic studies, as well as examining the organizations described, the authors point to the demographic differences between Kurdish minorities in Poland and in the West, the advancing integration of Kurdish public activity with Polish public life and, finally, the inability to use the social capital of members of this minority for achieving common, long-term goals.

The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here, we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows a maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of 14.6±5.6 days. Our findings suggest that trends in local mobility allow us to forecast the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 for a window of two weeks and adjust local control strategies in real time.

Throughout the past six months, no number has dominated the public media more persistently than the reproduction number of COVID-19. This powerful but simple concept is widely used by the public media, scientists, and political decision makers to explain and justify political strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we explore the effectiveness of political interventions using the reproduction number of COVID-19 across Europe. We propose a dynamic SEIR epidemiology model with a time-varying reproduction number, which we identify using machine learning. During the early outbreak, the basic repro6.33duction number was 4.22±1.69, with maximum values of and 5.88 in Germany and the Netherlands. By May 10, 2020, it dropped to 0.67±0.18, with minimum values of 0.37 and 0.28 in Hungary and Slovakia. We found a strong correlation between passenger air travel, driving, walking, and transit mobility and the effective reproduction number with a time delay of 17.24±2.00 days model provides the flexibility to simulate various outbreak. Our new dynamic SEIR control and exit strategies to inform political decision making and identify safe solutions in the benefit of global health.

The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of 14.6 ± 5.6 days. Our findings suggests that local mobility can serve as a quantitative metric to forecast future reproduction numbers and identify the stages of the pandemic when mobility and reproduction become decorrelated.

A key strategy to prevent a local outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic is to restrict incoming travel. Once a region has successfully contained the disease, it becomes critical to decide when and how to reopen the borders. Here we explore the impact of border reopening for the example of Newfoundland and Labrador, a Canadian province that has enjoyed no new cases since late April, 2020. We combine a network epidemiology model with machine learning to infer parameters and predict the COVID-19 dynamics upon partial and total airport reopening, with perfect and imperfect quarantine conditions. Our study suggests that upon full reopening, every other day, a new COVID-19 case would enter the province. Under the current conditions, banning air travel from outside Canada is more efficient in managing the pandemic than fully reopening and quarantining 95% of the incoming population. Our study provides quantitative insights of the efficacy of travel restrictions and can inform political decision making in the controversy of reopening.

For the first time in history, on March 17, 2020, the European Union closed all its external borders in an attempt to contain the spreading of the coronavirus 2019, COVID-19. Throughout two past months, governments around the world have implemented massive travel restrictions and border control to mitigate the outbreak of this global pandemic. However, the precise effects of travel restrictions on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 remain unknown. Here we combine a global network mobility model with a local epidemiology model to simulate and predict the outbreak dynamics and outbreak control of COVID-19 across Europe. We correlate our mobility model to passenger air travel statistics and calibrate our epidemiology model using the number of reported COVID-19 cases for each country. Our simulations show that mobility networks of air travel can predict the emerging global diffusion pattern of a pandemic at the early stages of the outbreak. Our results suggest that an unconstrained mobility would have significantly accelerated the spreading of COVID-19, especially in Central Europe, Spain, and France. Ultimately, our network epidemiology model can inform political decision making and help identify exit strategies from current travel restrictions and total lockdown.