Suchergebnisse

This study aims to describe recent developments in the Southern African region by documenting a set of mega-trends defining social, economic, political and environmental conditions. It includes analysis of the recent past as well as projections of future trends. To the extent possible, the report is based on information from 2010 to the present, except in some cases where more recent information was not available. The purpose of this analysis is to get a snapshot of current conditions in the Southern African region and the dynamics that generated them, to inform the design and implementation of investments to secure climate-resilient agricultural livelihoods in the region. The study goes beyond simply tracing trends, however, and provides guidance on how the information can best be used in making plans for the future. The mega-trend analysis gives insights into forces that will shape the future but does not provide predictions of the future. Humans are typically very linear thinkers and tend to look at trends from the past and project them forwards into the future, and we often fall into the trap of thinking that the future is defined by what has happened in the past. There is considerable uncertainty over how several of these mega-trends will play out in the near future, with the possibility of major disruptions and changes on the horizon. This can be seen quite clearly in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which is still unfolding, and which is already disrupting expectations of future conditions. This uncertainty of future conditions greatly complicates decision-making today. To address this complication, the development of scenarios to identify a range of plausible futures is an important tool for decision-makers. In the final section of the report we give examples of recent scenario work in the region to illustrate how the analysis of megatrends and their uncertainties can be useful in strategic decision-making under uncertainty.

ABSTRACTWe explore poor farmers' incentives to adopt production systems that increase soil carbon sequestration, focusing on the impact of risk. A dynamic optimization model of conservation agriculture adoption is presented, where farmers optimize over expected utility of profits from agriculture and carbon sequestration. Adoption impacts on agricultural productivity are modeled as a combination of the technological effects of the new system, and productivity effects of changes in soil carbon on agricultural output. Comparative static results indicate increases in soil carbon sequestration price and the discount rate have unambiguous impacts on equilibrium soil carbon levels; the former leading to higher, and the latter to lower, carbon levels. Increases in the price of agricultural output and risk aversion have ambiguous impacts, depending on the relative strength of the productivity and technology effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of designing soil carbon payment mechanisms to benefit low income farmers.

AbstractThis introductory paper summarizes the policy context, methodological approach, and key results from the set of papers contained in this special edition derived from a FAO-led project on seed sourcing in local markets and its farm-level impacts. The introduction provides the conceptual framework used in the papers for considering the relationship between sourcing seed from market and rural household decision-making as well as the effects this has on two key farm outcomes: on-farm diversity and household welfare. Approaches for data collection and study site selection are described, with a focus on how methodological issues were addressed in the different studies. Lastly, the paper summarizes the results of the individual papers and draws broad conclusions and policy implications for promoting the sustainable utilization of crop genetic resources through increasing market access and in a manner that supports agricultural production.

AbstractThe paper presents an analysis of the role of two forms of social capital – linking and bonding – on two key farm outcomes: on-farm crop diversity and household wellbeing. Where market transactions are limited, social capital is an important household asset for accessing seed and channelling information. The study is set in a drought-prone region of Ethiopia, with high rates of food insecurity and dependency on agriculture for livelihoods. The region is very rich in crop genetic diversity, particularly for sorghum. The data were collected for a production year that experienced a major drought shock. Results of the analysis indicate that social capital is an important determinant of farm level diversity and wellbeing, with opposing effects related to the two different forms of social capital. This suggests possible trade-offs between the two forms of social capital in terms of food security, production and diversity, which need to be considered in planning interventions.