Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Rainfall-induced landslides not only cause property loss, but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in mountainous areas in China. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent with rainfall threshold values used in an early warning system at a regional scale for the occurrence of landslides. However, the limited availability of data always causes difficulties. In this paper we present a method to calculate rainfall threshold values with limited data sets for two rainfall parameters: hourly rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The method has been applied to the Huangshan region, in the province of Anhui, China. Four early warning levels (zero, outlook, attention, and warning) have been adopted and the corresponding rainfall threshold values have been defined by probability lines. A validation procedure showed that this method can significantly enhance the effectiveness of a warning system, and finally reduce and mitigate the risk of shallow landslides in mountainous regions.

Abstract. Landslide monitoring is important in predicting the behavior of landslides, thereby ensuring environmental, life, and property safety. On the basis of our previous studies, we conducted the double shear test by using a third-generation optical fiber transducer that uses expandable polystyrene (EPS) as base material. However, the third-generation transducer has poor performance when cohesive force is present between the grout and capillary stainless steel pipe of the transducer. Thus, the fourth-generation optical fiber transducer was invented. Similar to the third-generation transducer, the fourth-generation transducer also used EPS as its base material. Single shear test was conducted on the fourth-generation transducer after being grouted with cement mortar (1 : 1 mix ratio). The micro-bend loss mechanism of the optical fiber was considered, and the optical time domain reflectometry instrument was used. The fact that the loss sequence of optical fibers subjected to loading is different at various locations is found. The relationship of the loading-point displacement vs. optical fiber sliding distance and optical loss were measured. Results show that the maximum initial measurement precision of the newly proposed device is 1 mm, the corresponding sliding distance is 21 mm, and the dynamic range is 0–20 mm. The fourth-generation transducer can measure the movement direction of loadings, thus making this transducer applicable for landslide monitoring.

arXiv:1305.6887 ; Since the advent of atomic force microscopy, mechanical resonators have been used to study a wide variety of phenomena, including the dynamics of individual electron spins, persistent currents in normal metal rings and the Casimir force. Key to these experiments is the ability to measure weak forces. Here, we report on force sensing experiments with a sensitivity of 12 zN Hz -1/2 at a temperature of 1.2 K using a resonator made of a carbon nanotube. An ultrasensitive method based on cross-correlated electrical noise measurements, in combination with parametric downconversion, is used to detect the low-amplitude vibrations of the nanotube induced by weak forces. The force sensitivity is quantified by applying a known capacitive force. This detection method also allows us to measure the Brownian vibrations of the nanotube down to cryogenic temperatures. Force sensing with nanotube resonators offers new opportunities for detecting and manipulating individual nuclear spins as well as for magnetometry measurements. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. ; We acknowledge support from the European Union through the RODIN-FP7 project, the ERC-carbonNEMS project and a Marie Curie grant (271938), the Spanish state (FIS2009-11284), the Catalan government (AGAUR, SGR) and the US Army Research Office. ; Peer Reviewed

The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

Abstract. The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.