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The ancient Silk Road played a crucial role in cultural exchange and commercial trade between western and eastern Eurasia during the historical period. However, the exchanges were interrupted in the early 16th century CE, during the Ming dynasty. Various causes for the decline of the ancient Silk Road have been suggested. Unlike social factors, natural factors have not been adequately addressed. In this study, we use evidence from a sedimentary site (Xishawo, XSW) in Dunhuang oasis, together with analysis of historical archives, to demonstrate the occurrence of extreme droughts and desertification events in the Dunhuang area post ∼ 1450 CE, which persisted at least for decades. The desertification may be closely associated with the accessibility of the ancient Silk Road in the area, which was responsible for a steep fall in the volume of trade, as well as political chaos and mass migrations. Therefore, besides socio-economic factors, climate change may have played an important role in trade exchange between the Ming government and the West and may have even influenced the rise and decline of the ancient Silk Road.

The ancient Silk Road played a crucial role in cultural exchange and commercial trade between western and eastern Eurasia during the historical period. However, the exchanges were interrupted in the early 16th century CE, during the Ming dynasty. Various causes for the decline of the ancient Silk Road have been suggested. Unlike social factors, natural factors have not been adequately addressed. In this study, we use evidence from a sedimentary site (Xishawo, XSW) in Dunhuang oasis, together with analysis of historical archives, to demonstrate the occurrence of extreme droughts and desertification events in the Dunhuang area post ∼ 1450 CE, which persisted at least for decades. The desertification may be closely associated with the accessibility of the ancient Silk Road in the area, which was responsible for a steep fall in the volume of trade, as well as political chaos and mass migrations. Therefore, besides socio-economic factors, climate change may have played an important role in trade exchange between the Ming government and the West and may have even influenced the rise and decline of the ancient Silk Road.

The Ancient Silk Road played a crucial role in cultural exchange and commercial trade between western and eastern Eurasia during the historical period. However, the exchanges were interrupted in the early 16th century AD, in the Ming dynasty. Three causes of the demise of the ancient Silk Road have been suggested: (1) the thriving of the sea trade route after the great geographic discovery in the Ming dynasty; (2) frequent incursions by the Wala and Turpan kingdoms, or fighting in border areas; and (3) climate change. In this study, new evidence from a sedimentary site in Dunhuang oasis together with analysis of historical archives indicate that neither the sea trade route nor the frontier wars were the pivotal reason for the closure of the Jiayuguan Pass. Extreme droughts and desertification events, caused by climate change, occurred in the Dunhuang area, west of the Jiayuguan Pass, during ~ 1440–1460 AD. After ~ 1450 AD, desertification rendered the ancient Silk Road impassable in the area, which resulted in a steep fall in the volume of trade as well as political chaos and mass migrations. The final closure of the Jiayuguan Pass in 1539 AD and the abandonment of Dunhuang city further interrupted the operation of the ancient Silk Road.