Suchergebnisse

Abstract
China's wolf warrior diplomacy has attracted worldwide attention since April 2020. Unlike previous studies, which mainly adopted a conceptual/qualitative approach, this study, based on Google Trends data during April 2020–May 2021, performs a comprehensive empirical analysis. In particular, this study finds that China's wolf warrior diplomacy began to develop rapidly in April 2020. It finds that China's wolf warrior diplomacy failed to stir up domestic nationalism but significantly augmented the perception of a Chinese threat around the world. However, Xi Jinping's new guidelines on China's wolf warrior diplomacy on May 31, 2021 have reduced the significance of this style of diplomacy.

Abstract
Russia's aggression on Ukraine has attracted worldwide attention. The relations between Russia's aggression and NATO's expansion are being debated with conflicting viewpoints. Based on weekly Google Trends data from 5 March 2017 to 13 February 2022, this study creatively creates a series of time series variables to measure the public agenda in the US. Based on time series modellings, this study finds that the U.S. public believes that there are bi-directional relations between NATO's expansion and Russia's aggressiveness. In particular, Russia's aggressiveness is driven by both NATO's expansion and Russia's imperialism. NATO's expansion is driven by Russia's foreign policy, Russia's aggressiveness, and Russia's imperialism. These conclusions predicted the U.S. government's policy towards this war. This study contributes to policymakers by providing solid empirical evidence on the U.S. public's opinion on this important issue and to academia as well by presenting a (still) new quantitative method in international relations. By employing this method, we can leverage readily accessible high-frequency time series data to gain valuable insights into U.S. public opinion, potentially enabling people to predict U.S. foreign policies.

The cross-strait relations between Taiwan and China are critical in the Asia Pacific and the world. This study focuses on economic relations and their implications. The main conclusions include: First, the economic gap in output is increasingly larger, thus favouring China. Based on a time series robust least squares model, this study finds that this economic strength will significantly reduce the number of Taiwan's foreign allies. At the same time, this economic strength also brings military imbalance. Second, by employing the Granger causality tests to examine the causality relations between the stock markets of Taiwan and China, which reflect the economic integrations in areas such as the trade of goods and services and capital flow, this study finds that China is in a dominant position. At the same time, Taiwan is in a dominated position. However, except for tourism, the effects of China's dominant position as leverage seem limited.

Abstract
China's debt trap diplomacy has been debated among academia, think tanks, and the policymaking community. Unlike previous research, which mainly focuses on China's lending practice and strategic intentions, this study looks at the measurement of this narrative and its relations with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China threat narratives. In particular, based on Google Trends search results from 1 February 2018 to 7 November 2021, this study creatively created weekly time series data to measure the narratives. Based on an autoregressive distributed lag model, this study finds that the BRI narrative and the China threat narrative make significant contributions to the debt trap diplomacy narrative. Results based on sub-datasets show that these significant relations are mainly driven by the English-speaking Indian public and that these relations are insignificant in the United States. This study contributes to the literature on China's debt trap diplomacy by bringing solid empirical evidence and to academia as well in methods by presenting a (still) new quantitative approach to international relations.

AbstractAmerica's decoupling‐from‐China debate started after July 2018, reached its peak in August 2020, and is likely to continue even if it may not be a high priority for the Biden administration. Many studies have examined various aspects of this issue, especially the potential economic impacts on the US economy. Unlike previous research, this study looks at the response of stock markets. Using Google Trends data, this study created a weekly dataset from January 2020 to June 2021 to measure investor sentiment towards the US decoupling from China. Employing the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, the study finds that concern over decoupling is associated with significant variations in stock market prices. From this we can infer that the overall effects of decoupling on the US economy are likely to be considerable.