Suchergebnisse

Dottorato di ricerca in Politica agraria ; AgriPoliS è un programma per l'implementazione di modelli multi-agente, spazialmente espliciti ed adatti a modellare gli effetti a lungo termine delle politiche agricole comunitarie (PAC). I modelli sviluppati con AgriPoliS sono in grado di cogliere le interazioni esistenti tra un gran numero di imprenditori agricoli fortemente eterogenei. In questa tesi è descritta un'estensione di AgriPoliS per modellare caratteristiche tipicamente mediterranee, quali le colture permanenti, l'utilizzo diffuso dell'irrigazione e la differenziazione produttiva in termini di qualità (AgriPoliS::Med). Una volta adattato, AgriPoliS::Med è quindi usato per scrivere due modelli regionali che implementano differenti scenari di politiche agricole su due regioni dell'Italia centrale e meridionale. I nostri risultati suggeriscono che gli effetti sull'agricoltura di tipo mediterranea della riforma del 2003 sono spesso minoritari rispetto ad andamenti strutturali preesistenti e che solo una riforma radicale della PAC potrebbe cambiare in maniera sostanziale la struttura del sistema agricolo. In nessuno scenario abbiamo comunque riscontrato significativi fenomeni di abbandono dei terreni. ; AgriPoliS is a spatially explicit multi-agent model framework, developed in C++ language and suitable for long-term simulations of agricultural policies. The main feature of models developed with AgriPoliS is their ability to simulate the interaction among a large set of heterogeneous farmers and between them and the environment in which they operate. In this dissertation it is described an extension of the framework that allows AgriPoliS models to deal with typical characters of the Mediterranean agriculture (AgriPoliS::Med). Once extended, AgriPoliS::Med is hence used to describe the implementation of alternative policy scenarios and to apply them on two regions located in Central and South Italy. Results suggest that the effects of decoupling policies in the Mediterranean agriculture, as implemented in the 2003 reform, are often dominated by effects of structural trends and only a "bond scheme" would substantially change the regional farm structures. In no scenario we observe remarkable agricultural land abandonment.

International audience ; Forests have been managed under the concept of multiple uses since the sixties. However, timber was supposed to pay for providing the non-market, ecological and social benefits. Today, in certain forests, non-timber products such as annual hunting fees dwarf timber income. In the future, non-timber ecological and social services could find markets also. We want to transit toward a more sustainable economic development. Should we speed up the transition process by offering public incentives to reward owners for providing goods and services for which they may not be rewarded financially today but for which a market could appear or be created in the future? A method for tailoring possible forest instruments for this transition period will be presented and the way to operationalize the method discussed. The method relies on the dual financial and economic analyses of forest investments.

International audience ; Forests have been managed under the concept of multiple uses since the sixties. However, timber was supposed to pay for providing the non-market, ecological and social benefits. Today, in certain forests, non-timber products such as annual hunting fees dwarf timber income. In the future, non-timber ecological and social services could find markets also. We want to transit toward a more sustainable economic development. Should we speed up the transition process by offering public incentives to reward owners for providing goods and services for which they may not be rewarded financially today but for which a market could appear or be created in the future? A method for tailoring possible forest instruments for this transition period will be presented and the way to operationalize the method discussed. The method relies on the dual financial and economic analyses of forest investments.

Rural areas still play a major role within the EU, as Europe is still a fairly rural continent. Moreover, EU rural areas are going through greater challenges and major transformations. After the Eastern enlargements of the EU (in 2004 and 2007), they are getting more and more heterogeneous, in terms of their main socio-economic features as well as of agricultural activities. According to this increasing heterogeneity, the traditional urban-rural divide can be now considered almost outdated (OECD, 2006). Indeed, a multidimensional approach is crucial in order to catch all the different features affecting trends and development of rural areas. For example, central rural regions in Continental countries sharply differ from more peripheral rural areas still facing major development issues. This research has highlighted the main dimensions affecting EU rural areas. First, some considerations on the main drivers of EU territorial development have been analysed. Then, throughout cluster analysis, specific typologies of EU rural areas have been identified. According to this classification, clear territorial patterns emerge. Actually, clusters of more central and more accessible regions are quite different from those clusters composed by more peripheral and lagging behind regions. Thus, geography still affects deeply both the economic performance of regions and their main socio-demographic trends (both in urban and rural areas). Moreover, by computing a comprehensive PeripheRurality (PR) Index, the existence of a more complex geography at the EU scale emerges. National approaches to rural and peripheral areas should be substituted by broader approaches, encompassing all the different territorial level of the analysis.

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".