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This paper provides new evidence about the income dynamics among families with children in Norway receiving social assistance benefits. The data includes all Norwegian families receiving social assistance benefits for the first time in 1995. The income development of these families is followed until the end of 1999. In order to take advantage of the longitudinal character of the data, multivariate panel data models are applied. The analytical framework is elaborated from two theoretical approaches, where hypotheses drawn from a dependency framework are tested alongside hypotheses developed from a life-course perspective. The latter is of particular relevance for the families under scrutiny. The results show that, far from being permanently marginalised from the labour market, most families respond positively to upturning business cycles, and work activity seems to be an important factor in increasing family income. Certain groups are worse-off economically than others: in particular, families going through life-phase changes, both expected and unexpected, are likely to experience longer periods of low income. Hence, the parents' transition from adolescence to adulthood and entry into the labour market seems to be a critical phase for families. Further, single parenting seems to influence family income negatively. Families with backgrounds from developing countries have a substantially lower income than native Norwegians and western immigrants; however, the former do not seem to have a stronger inclination towards benefit dependency than native Norwegians.

AbstractAs long as welfare arrangements have been in existence, there has been a strong belief that high‐benefit generosity leads to welfare reliance. In this study, we investigate whether an increase in welfare generosity in Norway resulted in higher social assistance (SA) uptake and decreased engagement in paid work. By utilizing high‐quality administrative data and employing a difference‐in‐difference design, we find no overall effects on SA or work activity. However, we do observe a significant reduction in work activity and an increase in SA for specific predefined high‐risk groups, which are believed to be particularly responsive to financial incentives. Thus, we discover evidence of unfavorable effects for child families, non‐Western immigrants, and the combined group of non‐Western immigrant child families. These latter findings are interpreted in light of the particular socioeconomic circumstances of these groups.

This article revisits earlier research on social assistance (SA) dynamics by applying a holistic life‐course approach, made possible by sequence analysis. We followed the life‐course over 20 years of young recipients of SA in Norway. The data material was derived from administrative data collected and linked by Statistics Norway. The study population was first‐time SA recipients aged 18–24 years in 1995. In addition to SA, spells of social security, schooling, work and earnings were examined. We found that SA plays a minor role over time, but that social security receipt constitutes an important trajectory for more than a quarter of the SA population. Education and work with medium earnings make up distinctly different and rather successful trajectories for about half of the SA population. Gender and early school‐leaving matter for trajectory affiliation. Women's trajectories are to a greater extent than men's characterised by unstable employment and low‐paid work.

This paper examines whether active labour market programmes (ALMPs) directed to the most disadvantaged in Norway are helpful in moving them from social assistance to self-sufficiency (i.e. work, earnings, and decent income) . The study focuses on programme packages that integrate several components and are especially targeted at the disadvantaged unemployed. Nine such programme packages are evaluated. Thus, nine comparison groups are formed, one for each intervention group. Both groups are derived from the pool of the entire population of social assistance recipients registered in 1995. The study adopts a quasi-experimental design. To handle selection bias, a matching procedure based on a propensity-score approach is applied. The results indicate that most of the programme packages yield a positive and, in most cases, significant effect on subsequent employment and earnings, both in the short and in the long run, that is, up to five years later.

In the article we ask how long Norwegian recipients of social assistance stay on aid over an eight‐year period? We focus on the populations selected, the design of the study and how spells are recorded and measured. The data set includes nearly the entire 1995 cohort of social assistance claimants (n = 155,000), and contains individual information over eight years (1992–1999), which is the maximum length of a single continuous spell. The study combines a retrospective and a prospective multiple cohort design. The data analysis shows that there is no simple answer to our question; the answer depends on the sample selected, the design, number of spells counted and the chosen measure of central tendency. We find that median duration times vary from two months to 40 months. The conclusion is that a point‐in‐time sample has clearly the longest duration. It makes a big difference whether one measures one or more spells. Because cycling is a common phenomenon, the sum of all spell durations is much higher than that of the first continuous spell. A retrospective design severely underestimates spell durations since many spells are right‐hand censored. As there is no single, adequate answer to our initial question, it is recommended that analysts of social assistance dynamics carefully specify their sample, design and spells counted.

In this study, we investigated the work and welfare‐state trajectories of three cohorts of middle‐aged Norwegian inhabitants over a period of two decades (1994–2014). The period of this study is particularly interesting because of an extensive welfare reform that was initiated in 2006 and completed in 2011. We addressed two questions: What were the most typical labour market and welfare‐state trajectories for middle‐aged people over the past two decades, and have they changed? Second, did the work and welfare‐state trajectories of a major target group of the NAV reform – adults with a high risk of health‐related exclusion – change during our observation period? Over the period, we witnessed a sharp drop in the number of people in stable employment. Furthermore, rather than solving the problem of permanent health‐related exclusion from the labour market, policy changes have created a new problem by steering people into temporary and less secure income sources from the welfare state.

Lorentzen T, Dahl E, Harsløf I. Welfare risks in early adulthood: a longitudinal analysis of social assistance transitions in NorwayThis study assessed the significance of critical life events and socio‐economic background in relation to the likelihood of young Norwegians receiving social assistance, asking how each of these factors contributes both independently and interactively. The data set was derived from a nationwide, longitudinal register and includes the entire 18‐year‐old cohort in 1993. A discrete‐time proportional hazard rate analysis controlling for unobserved heterogeneity was applied. The results indicate that both socio‐economic background and indicators of critical life events have strong independent effects on the likelihood of receiving social assistance. Significant interaction effects between socio‐economic background and certain indicators of critical life events were detected. However, contrary to our expectations, under certain circumstances, coming from a group with low socio‐economic status does not seem to ameliorate the effect of being exposed to critical life events.

Social assistance benefits are the last resort in national social protection systems, and decentralizing reforms leading to increasing local discretion over implementation of national legislation was an international trend frequently referred to as devolution. More recent reforms have instead often implied recentralization and/or involved mandatory institutional cooperation between welfare agencies located at different hierarchical levels. In contrast to North America, there is little European evidence on the extent to which shifting responsibilities influence benefit levels and benefit receipt. Using individual level register data from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and applying a difference-in-difference approach, we link changes in legislation to changes in municipal benefits as well as caseloads during the period 1990–2010. We only find indications of reform effects linked to distinct benefit centralization, concluding that other reforms were too insubstantial to have an impact. Combined with earlier evidence, this suggests that in order to have an impact, welfare reform requires marked changes in authority.

The article explores the extent to which the organization of vocational tracks in upper secondary school affects the labour market risks associated with early school exit. The Nordic countries share many features, but the upper secondary school systems differ significantly in how their vocational tracks are organized. Denmark and Norway have dual vocational tracks, that is, they combine school-based education and workplace apprenticeships, whereas in Finland and Sweden they are primarily school based. We analyse administrative longitudinal data from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s in the four countries and find the highest vocational track dropout rates in Norway and the lowest in Finland. The results indicate that the relative labour market effect of dropping out from a vocational track is most detrimental in Norway. It is also in Norway that we find the greatest gender differences in this respect.