Youth and the sea: Ocean literacy in Nova Scotia, Canada
In: Marine policy, Band 58, S. 98-107
ISSN: 0308-597X
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In: Marine policy, Band 58, S. 98-107
ISSN: 0308-597X
In: Marine policy: the international journal of ocean affairs, Band 58, S. 98-107
ISSN: 0308-597X
In: Marine policy, Band 73, S. 235-243
ISSN: 0308-597X
In: Marine policy: the international journal of ocean affairs, Band 73, S. 235-243
ISSN: 0308-597X
Managing for the Future: Understanding the Relative Roles of Climate and Fishing on Structure and Dynamics of Marine Ecosystems.-- 23 pages, 11 figures, 4 tables, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.567877/full#supplementary-material.-- All data inputs to EcoOcean v2 are either freely available as online databases or available under request from data providers. Results from the 13 runs of EcoOcean v2 presented in this study are available upon request to the lead author. The source code of EcoOcean is available under request to the lead author within a collaborative framework ; Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modeling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modeling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change ; This study received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 817578 (TRIATLAS project). Additional financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, Grant 01LS1201A1). HL further acknowledges funding by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada (RGPIN-2014-04491). DT acknowledges support from the Jarislowsky Foundation. VC received support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901 ; Peer reviewed
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6 pages, 5 figures, supporting information https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116.-- All data reported in this paper are archived and publicly available at http://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/showshort.php?id=escidoc:2956913. ; While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends ; Financial support was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through ISI-MIP (Grant01LS1201A1), the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program (Grant 678193), and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G). We acknowledge additional financial support as follows: to H.K.L., W.W.L.C., and B.W. from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada; to D.P.T. from the Kanne Rasmussen Foundation Denmark; to A.B.-B. from the NSERC Transatlantic Ocean Science and Technology Program; to W.W.L.C. and T.D.E. from the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program; to E.D.G., M.C. and J. Steenbeek from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Re-search and Innovation Program (Grants 682602 and 689518); to E.A.F., J.L.B., andT.R. from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and the Australian Research Council; to N.B., L.B., and O.M. from the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche and Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer; and to S.J. from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs ; Peer Reviewed
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22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9.-- Data availabilityAll standardized forcing variables from the ESMs are available at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.575744.1; all outputs from the MEMs are available via ISIMIP (https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/data-access/).-- Code availabilityAll code used to analyse simulations is available at https://github.com/Fish-MIP/CMIP5vsCMIP6 ; Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning ; This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) ; Peer reviewed
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In: Martin , M A , Sendra , O A , Bastos , A , Bauer , N , Bertram , C , Blenckner , T , Bowen , K , Brando , P M , Rudolph , T B , Büchs , M , Bustamante , M , Chen , D , Cleugh , H , Dasgupta , P , Denton , F , Donges , J F , Donkor , F K , Duan , H , Duarte , C M , Ebi , K L , Edwards , C M , Engel , A , Fisher , E , Fuss , S , Gaertner , J , Gettelman , A , Girardin , C A J , Golledge , N R , Green , J F , Grose , M R , Hashizume , M , Hebden , S , Hepach , H , Hirota , M , Hsu , H H , Kojima , S , Lele , S , Lorek , S , Lotze , H K , Matthews , H D , McCauley , D , Mebratu , D , Mengis , N , Nolan , R H , Pihl , E , Rahmstorf , S , Redman , A , Reid , C E , Rockström , J , Rogelj , J , Saunois , M , Sayer , L , Schlosser , P , Sioen , G B , Spangenberg , J H , Stammer , D , Sterner , T N S , Stevens , N , Thonicke , K , Tian , H , Winkelmann , R & Woodcock , J 2021 , ' Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : A horizon scan ' , Global Sustainability , vol. 4 , pp. 1-20 . https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25
Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
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Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
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In: Martin , M A , Sendra , O A , Bastos , A , Bauer , N , Bertram , C , Blenckner , T , Bowen , K , Brando , P M , Rudolph , T B , Büchs , M , Bustamante , M , Chen , D , Cleugh , H , Dasgupta , P , Denton , F , Donges , J F , Donkor , F K , Duan , H , Duarte , C M , Ebi , K L , Edwards , C M , Engel , A , Fisher , E , Fuss , S , Gaertner , J , Gettelman , A , Girardin , C A J , Golledge , N R , Green , J F , Grose , M R , Hashizume , M , Hebden , S , Hepach , H , Hirota , M , Hsu , H H , Kojima , S , Lele , S , Lorek , S , Lotze , H K , Matthews , H D , McCauley , D , Mebratu , D , Mengis , N , Nolan , R H , Pihl , E , Rahmstorf , S , Redman , A , Reid , C E , Rockström , J , Rogelj , J , Saunois , M , Sayer , L , Schlosser , P , Sioen , G B , Spangenberg , J H , Stammer , D , Sterner , T N S , Stevens , N , Thonicke , K , Tian , H , Winkelmann , R & Woodcock , J 2021 , ' Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : A horizon scan ' , Global Sustainability , vol. 4 , E25 . https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.25
Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
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