Suchergebnisse

Rapid sea level rise over the 21st century threatens coastal settlements and populations worldwide. Significant land-use policy reform will be needed to mitigate exposure to hazards in the coastal zone. Sea-level rise maps that indicate areas that are potentially prone to future inundation are a valuable tool for policymakers and decision makers. However, errors, assumptions, and uncertainties inherent in spatial data are not often explicitly recognised or communicated. In 2011, the state of Queensland, Australia, published a series of 'state of the art' sea-level rise maps as part of its coastal planning regime. This article uses the Queensland coastal planning regime as a case study to explore how errors, uncertainties and variability in physical, geographical and biological processes in the coastal zone pose challenges for policy makers. Analysis of the case study shows that the use of spatial data in sea-level rise policy formulation is complicated by the need to: (1) acknowledge and communicate uncertainties in existing and projected rates of rise; (2) engage in site-specific mapping based upon best available scientific information; (3) incorporate probabilities of extreme weather events; (4) resolve whether coastal engineering solutions should be included in mapping; (5) ensure that mapping includes areas required for future ecosystem migration; (6) manage discretion in planning and policy decision-making processes; (7) create flexible policies which can be updated in line with scientific developments; and (8) balance the need for consistency with the ability to apply developments in science and technology. Scientists working with spatial data and governments developing and implementing coastal planning policies can recognise, communicate, and seek to overcome uncertainty by addressing these factors. © 2014 The Authors.

Among the biggest global challenges for policymakers is the development of land use policies robust to climate change impacts. While diverse fields can inform adaptation, integrated social-ecological assessment of the multiple adaptation options are rare and cannot be easily applied. Here, we build on past studies by undertaking an integrated fine scale and strategic allocation of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation options that can direct policy making. We use models of probabilistic SLR inundation, urban growth, and sub and intertidal ecosystem migration, to investigate the impacts of different SLR adaptation strategies, and how these can be allocated to best achieve both development and conservation goals. Coastal adaptation will involve trade-offs among development and conservation objectives and these will vary based on the extent to which sea levels rise. There will be trade-offs between conservation objectives regardless of the adaptation options chosen, however retreat does provide opportunities for enabling the expansion of coastal ecosystems inland. Local governments can save billions of dollars and minimise political conflict between conservation and development goals through integrated strategic spatial planning. Our planning approach both informs policy and is transferable to other coastal regions faced with a rising sea.