Meeting the Migrant Pension Challenge in China
In: CESifo economic studies: a joint initiative of the University of Munich's Center for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institute, Band 61, Heft 2, S. 438-464
ISSN: 1612-7501
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In: CESifo economic studies: a joint initiative of the University of Munich's Center for Economic Studies and the Ifo Institute, Band 61, Heft 2, S. 438-464
ISSN: 1612-7501
© 2017 Taylor & Francis. Long-term care (LTC) policy is at an experimental stage in China, characterized by various regional pilot programs. The public cost of LTC is difficult to estimate due to a lack of clarity about policy detail from the central government. This article analyzes the current disabled status for vulnerable older people without sufficient financial resources and family supports. It focuses on estimating a safety net public subsidy policy for LTC services in China, both for today and into the future, using China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) data, 2011 wave, with the methods of multinomial logistic regression and simulation. The key contribution is to estimate the future disability trend and LTC public cost based on changes in education, population ageing, and urbanization. Disability prevalence might be decreasing partly due to higher education, urbanization, and better health care, and the overall public LTC costs might be growing by the results of projection.
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In: Progress in nuclear energy: the international review journal covering all aspects of nuclear energy, Band 43, Heft 1-4, S. 337-342
ISSN: 0149-1970
In: Materials & Design, Band 30, Heft 7, S. 2490-2500
This paper explores the changes in the prevalence of morbidity, morbidity-free life expectancy and its related factors in China from 2000 to 2010. The analysis uses health status data from three waves of the Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban/Rural China (SSAPUR). To explore the changes, three types of morbidity-free life expectancy (MFLE) are estimated using the Sullivan method. To identify the influencing factors of morbidity, we use regression models that consist of social and economic variables to identify these factors. Our results show that between 2000 and 2010, the prevalence of moderate morbidity based on activities of daily living (ADLs) declined across most age groups; however, the prevalence for instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and severe morbidity both increased, especially in the oldest old age group. Furthermore, the ratio of the MFLE to the total remaining life expectancy suggests the occurrence of a trend toward morbidity expansion. Our regression results suggest that age is the main factor in morbidity and impairment; however, education, health care, income and urbanisation play important roles in reducing the scores for IADLs and the prevalence of ADLs disability. Our findings imply that health care policy should assume a greater focus on healthy ageing, especially when people are expected to live longer. The findings also suggest that the government should prepare for the increasing demand for long-term care in the near future.
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In: Advances in applied ceramics: structural, functional and bioceramics, Band 111, Heft 7, S. 389-392
ISSN: 1743-6761
In China, many of the top- and second-tier hospitals are overcrowded, this is partly due to the fact they are providing services which can provided by other medical facilities such as long-term care. The implementation of the Qingdao Long-term Care Medical Insurance (LTCMI) which began as a pilot in Qingdao in 2012 may alleviate the burden of overcrowding in these hospitals. In this pilot, the Qingdao government shifted patients who did not require hospital inpatient care from top- and second-tier hospitals to lower tier facilities, care homes and home care to i) reduce the expenditure of patients, ii) reduce the burden on the top- and second-tier hospitals and iii) improve delivery (from a time and geographic perspective) of long term care to those that need such attention. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of this policy from a burden and cost perspective. Our finding suggests that there is a reduction in costs to all stakeholders. The total cost to the government-subsidized medical insurance decreases by around $7918 RMB per recipient. The cost to the individual decreases by around $2324 RMB per recipient. Thus, netting a decrease of $10,242 RMB in total expenditure. Furthermore, we find that there is a 12% reduction in inpatient service after a recipient participates in the pilot. Given the reduction in costs and admissions, this does indicate some level of success with the program. This paper concludes by examining the policy implications of these results.
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In: Advances in applied ceramics: structural, functional and bioceramics, Band 110, Heft 2, S. 95-98
ISSN: 1743-6761
In: Materials and design, Band 92, S. 268-280
ISSN: 1873-4197
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
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