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The employment implications of decarbonizing the energy sector have received far less attention than the technology dimension of the transition, although being of critical importance to policymakers. In this work, we adapt a methodology based on employment factors to project future changes in quantity and composition of direct energy supply jobs for two scenarios - (1) relatively weak emissions reductions as pledged in the nationally determined contributions (NDC) and (2) stringent reductions compatible with the 1.5 °C target. We find that in the near-term the 1.5°C-compatible scenario results in a net increase in jobs through gains in solar and wind jobs in construction, installation, and manufacturing, despite significant losses in coal fuel supply; eventually leading to a peak in total direct energy jobs in 2025. In the long run, improvements in labour productivity lead to a decrease of total direct energy employment compared to today, however, total jobs are still higher in a 1.5 °C than in an NDC scenario. Operation and maintenance jobs dominate future jobs, replacing fuel supply jobs. The results point to the need for active policies aimed at retraining, both inside and outside the renewable energy sector, to complement climate policies within the concept of a "just transition".

An Indian electricity system with very high shares of solar photovoltaics seems to be a plausible future given the ever-falling solar photovoltaic (PV) costs, recent Indian auction prices, and governmental support schemes. However, the variability of solar PV electricity, i.e., the seasonal, daily, and other weather-induced variations, could create an economic barrier. In this paper, we analyzed a strategy to overcome this barrier with demand-side management (DSM) by lending flexibility to the rapidly increasing electricity demand for air conditioning through either precooling or chilled water storage. With an open-source power sector model, we estimated the endogenous investments into and the hourly dispatching of these demand-side options for a broad range of potential PV shares in the Indian power system in 2040. We found that both options reduce the challenges of variability by shifting electricity demand from the evening peak to midday, thereby reducing the temporal mismatch of demand and solar PV supply profiles. This increases the economic value of solar PV, especially at shares above 40%, the level at which the economic value roughly doubles through demand flexibility. Consequently, DSM increases the competitive and cost-optimal solar PV generation share from 33-45% (without DSM) to ∼45-60% (with DSM). These insights are transferable to most countries with high solar irradiation in warm climate zones, which amounts to a major share of future electricity demand. This suggests that technologies, which give flexibility to air conditioning demand, can be an important contribution toward enabling a solar-centered global electricity supply. © 2020 by the authors.

An Indian electricity system with very high shares of solar photovoltaics seems to be a plausible future given the ever-falling solar photovoltaic (PV) costs, recent Indian auction prices, and governmental support schemes. However, the variability of solar PV electricity, i.e., the seasonal, daily, and other weather-induced variations, could create an economic barrier. In this paper, we analyzed a strategy to overcome this barrier with demand-side management (DSM) by lending flexibility to the rapidly increasing electricity demand for air conditioning through either precooling or chilled water storage. With an open-source power sector model, we estimated the endogenous investments into and the hourly dispatching of these demand-side options for a broad range of potential PV shares in the Indian power system in 2040. We found that both options reduce the challenges of variability by shifting electricity demand from the evening peak to midday, thereby reducing the temporal mismatch of demand and solar PV supply profiles. This increases the economic value of solar PV, especially at shares above 40%, the level at which the economic value roughly doubles through demand flexibility. Consequently, DSM increases the competitive and cost-optimal solar PV generation share from 33–45% (without DSM) to ~45–60% (with DSM). These insights are transferable to most countries with high solar irradiation in warm climate zones, which amounts to a major share of future electricity demand. This suggests that technologies, which give flexibility to air conditioning demand, can be an important contribution toward enabling a solar-centered global electricity supply. ; EC/H2020/730403/EU/Innovation pathways, strategies and policies for the Low-Carbon Transition in Europe/INNOPATHS ; BMBF, 03EK3046A, Verbundvorhaben START: Strategic Scenario Analysis (START) - A first German-Australian focus project

Auf dem Weltklimagipfel in Kopenhagen im Dezember 2009 wird ein globales Klimaabkommen verhandelt. Können dort Strukturen geschaffen werden, die einen effizienten und kostengünstigen Klimaschutz ermöglichen? Entscheidend sei es, nach Meinung von Hubertus Bardt, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, die Klimaschutzziele mit möglichst geringem Kostenaufwand zu erreichen. Möchte man international einen möglichst effizienten Klimaschutz betreiben, müssten die Maßnahmen zur Vermeidung von Treibhausgasemissionen an den Orten vorgenommen werden, wo dies je vermiedener Einheit am billigsten sei. Oftmals dürften diese Möglichkeiten in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern liegen, während in den klimapolitisch aktiven Industrieländern preiswerte Vermeidungspotentiale bereits zu einem guten Teil ausgeschöpft seien. Ein neues internationales Klimaabkommen müsse also dazu beitragen, dass die global günstigsten Vermeidungspotentiale realisiert werden. Ottmar Edenhofer, Brigitte Knopf und Gunnar Luderer, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgengforschung, sehen eine sinnvolle Architektur der Klimapolitik hauptsächlich in drei Maßnahmen: 1) in einer Einigung über die Kohlenstoffmenge, die noch bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts in der Atmosphäre abgelagert werden darf, 2) in der Verteilung der Emissionsrechte nach einem gerechten Schlüssel auf alle Nationen und 3) in der Schaffung der institutionellen Voraussetzungen für einen globalen Emissionshandel. Für Sabine Schlacke, Universität Bremen, scheint das "Ob" und "Wie" eines Post-Kyoto-Abkommens "derzeit mehr als ungewiss". Ein Scheitern der internationalen Verhandlungen könne aber durchaus auch die Möglichkeit eröffnen, über einen Systemwandel bei der internationalen Architektur des Klimaschutzes nachzudenken.