INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity, defined as the co-occurrence of two or more long-term medical conditions, is an increasing public health concern worldwide causing enormous burden to individuals, healthcare systems and societies. The most effective way of decreasing the burden caused by multimorbidity is to find tools for its successful prevention but gaps in research evidence limit capacities to develop prevention strategies. The aim of the MOLTO study (Multimorbidity - identifying the most burdensome patterns, risk factors and potentials to reduce future burden) is to provide novel evidence required for cost-effective prevention of multimorbidity by defining the multimorbidity patterns causing the greatest burden at the population level, by examining their risk and protective factors and by estimating the potentials to reduce the future burden. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The MOLTO study is based on the data from the Finnish population-based cross-sectional (FINRISK 2002–2012, FinHealth 2017 the Migrant Health and Well-being Study 2010–2012) and longitudinal (Health 2000/2011) health examination surveys with individual-level link to administrative health registers, allowing register-based follow-up for the study participants. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal study designs will be used. Multimorbidity patterns will be defined using latent class analysis. The burden caused by multimorbidity as well as risk and protective factors for multimorbidity will be analysed by survival analysis methods such as Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression models. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The survey data have been collected following the legislation at the time of the survey. The ethics committee of the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa has approved the data collection and register linkages for each survey. The results will be published as peer-reviewed scientific publications.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the genetic burden of type 2 diabetes modifies the association between the quality of dietary fat and the incidence of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN: Individual participant data meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Eligible prospective cohort studies were systematically sourced from studies published between January 1970 and February 2017 through electronic searches in major medical databases (Medline, Embase, and Scopus) and discussion with investigators. REVIEW METHODS: Data from cohort studies or multicohort consortia with available genome-wide genetic data and information about the quality of dietary fat and the incidence of type 2 diabetes in participants of European descent was sought. Prospective cohorts that had accrued five or more years of follow-up were included. The type 2 diabetes genetic risk profile was characterized by a 68-variant polygenic risk score weighted by published effect sizes. Diet was recorded by using validated cohort-specific dietary assessment tools. Outcome measures were summary adjusted hazard ratios of incident type 2 diabetes for polygenic risk score, isocaloric replacement of carbohydrate (refined starch and sugars) with types of fat, and the interaction of types of fat with polygenic risk score. RESULTS: Of 102 305 participants from 15 prospective cohort studies, 20 015 type 2 diabetes cases were documented after a median follow-up of 12 years (interquartile range 9.4-14.2). The hazard ratio of type 2 diabetes per increment of 10 risk alleles in the polygenic risk score was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.54 to 1.75, I2=7.1%, τ2=0.003). The increase of polyunsaturated fat and total omega 6 polyunsaturated fat intake in place of carbohydrate was associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, with hazard ratios of 0.90 (0.82 to 0.98, I2=18.0%, τ2=0.006; per 5% of energy) and 0.99 (0.97 to 1.00, I2=58.8%, τ2=0.001; per increment of 1 g/d), respectively. Increasing monounsaturated fat in place of carbohydrate was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.19, I2=25.9%, τ2=0.006; per 5% of energy). Evidence of small study effects was detected for the overall association of polyunsaturated fat with the risk of type 2 diabetes, but not for the omega 6 polyunsaturated fat and monounsaturated fat associations. Significant interactions between dietary fat and polygenic risk score on the risk of type 2 diabetes (P>0.05 for interaction) were not observed. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that genetic burden and the quality of dietary fat are each associated with the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The findings do not support tailoring recommendations on the quality of dietary fat to individual type 2 diabetes genetic risk profiles for the primary prevention of type 2 diabetes, and suggest that dietary fat is associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes across the spectrum of type 2 diabetes genetic risk. ; The EPIC-InterAct study received funding from the European Union (Integrated Project LSHM-CT-2006-037197 in the Framework Programme 6 of the European Community). We thank all EPIC participants and staff for their contribution to the study. We thank Nicola Kerrison (MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK) for managing the data for the InterAct Project. In addition, InterAct investigators acknowledge funding from the following agencies: MT: Health Research Fund (FIS) of the Spanish Ministry of Health; the CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Spain; Murcia Regional Government (N° 6236); JS: JS was supported by a Heisenberg-Professorship (SP716/2-1), a Clinical Research Group (KFO218/1) and a research group (Molecular Nutrition to JS) of the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF); YTvdS, JWJB, PHP, IS: Verification of diabetes cases was additionally funded by NL Agency grant IGE05012 and an Incentive Grant from the Board of the UMC Utrecht; HBBdM: Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); MDCL: Health Research Fund (FIS) of the Spanish Ministry of Health; Murcia Regional Government (N° 6236); FLC: Cancer Research UK; PD: Wellcome Trust; LG: Swedish Research Council; GH: The county of Västerbotten; RK: Deutsche Krebshilfe; TJK: Cancer Research UK; KK: Medical Research Council UK, Cancer Research UK; AK: Medical Research Council (Cambridge Lipidomics Biomarker Research Initiative); CN: Health Research Fund (FIS) of the Spanish Ministry of Health; Murcia Regional Government (N° 6236); KO: Danish Cancer Society; OP: Faculty of Health Science, 47 University of Aarhus, Denmark; JRQ: Asturias Regional Government; LRS: Asturias Regional Government; AT: Danish Cancer Society; RT: AIRE-ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS-Ragusa, Sicilian Regional Government; DLvdA, WMMV: Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); MMC: Wellcome Trust (083270/Z/07/Z), MRC (G0601261).
