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A stochastic epidemic model was applied to meningococcal disease outbreaks in defined small populations such as military garrisons and schools. Meningococci are spread primarily by asymptomatic carriers and only a small proportion of those infected develop invasive disease. Bayesian predictions of numbers of invasive cases were developed, based on observed data using a stochastic epidemic model. We used additional data sets to model both disease probability and duration of carriage. Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques were used to compute the full posterior distribution which summarized all information drawn together from multiple sources.

OBJECTIVE: To identify gaps in the systems for reporting adverse events following immunization (AEFI) in Europe by means of an interactive database constructed using a standardized approach. METHODS: A comparative survey was conducted in 1999-2000, using structured questionnaires addressed to the government authorities responsible for national immunization programmes and drug safety surveillance in all European Union (EU) Member States and in Norway and Switzerland. FINDINGS: The reporting of adverse vaccine reactions (AVRs) is covered by regulations in 13 of the 17 countries. Four countries have a specialized expert group with responsibility for vaccine safety. Only six professionals work full-time on vaccine safety in the 17 countries; in four of these countries the person is medically qualified. Fourteen countries have centralized reporting systems; in 14 countries the responsible authority is the drug regulatory agency. AEFI are reported using the procedure used for adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in all except four countries. The reporting form is not usually designed for vaccines and important details may therefore not be requested. Clinical definitions for vaccine reactions are not available. Twelve countries have appropriate official definitions for events or reactions, but the list of reportable events varies considerably between countries. The assessment of adverse vaccine reactions (AVRs) is hampered by lack of exact denominator data. Feedback to the rapporteurs was provided in 13 countries, but its quality was highly variable. CONCLUSION: The database facilitated a simple comparison of vaccinovigilance systems across participating countries. Most of the problems identified related to the reporting and analysis of AEFI could be solved through standardization and intensified international collaboration. On a national level, functional vaccinovigilance systems should be the shared responsibility of the drug regulatory authority and the national immunization programme. The resources for development and ...

Abstract Work life relevance is emphasized these days in higher education. In addition to domain-specific knowledge and skills, students should learn general work life competencies, such as team work, networking, project work and digital skills. At the University of Helsinki, agricultural science students' work life skills are promoted in a project course. The 5 ETCS course has been held for B.Sc. and M.Sc. students in 2016 and 2017. The course in 2016 had eight students and three supervisors in two project teams; the course in 2017 had 15 students in four teams, and six supervisors (university teachers). Each team had its own external client from businesses and national government departments. The course implementation was examined from a design-based research approach. The aim of the study was to evaluate the summative evaluations made by all groups participating in the course, receive research-based knowledge about improving the course design further, and to try out instruments and methods that can be used in educational practice to assess participant satisfaction and competence development during courses about work life. An online questionnaire was used to examine the evaluations of the supervisors and students about the success of the course and the competencies gained by the students (Collaborative Knowledge Practices Questionnaire, CKP). Interviews were used to examine the views of the clients concerning the realization and development of the course. The data were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods. The project process was mostly graded the same by the evaluators (students, supervisors and clients), but most student groups gave the report a higher grade than the other evaluators did. Students' evaluations were that they had acquired knowledge work competencies well, particularly the development of shared objects, the integration of individual and collaborative working and persistent development of knowledge objects. The students particularly appreciated team work for achieving common goals, development of project work and work life skills, interesting project topics and interaction with the customers. Challenges were the open assignments and related uncertainty of working methods, coordination of group work and students' inadequate skills in relation to project work requirements. The tight schedule of 11 weeks in 2016 led to the course being extended to 16 weeks in 2017. All clients evaluated their participation in the course as being positive. They appreciated being able to help students to practice work life skills and the university to develop teaching. Collaboration was seen as a good way to create contacts with students from the viewpoint of future workplaces. Project work outcomes provided new information for the development of the client organizations or supplemented and strengthened earlier views. As targets for improvement, the clients mentioned better definition of appropriate assignments for student teams and the development of interaction practices, e.g. by organizing virtual meetings. For the supervisors, the motivated working of the students and finishing of the projects in time were positive aspects. It was challenging to define appropriate topics for the client assignments, requirements of the course in relation to the skills of the students and timing of the course as well as their own time management. All parties experienced work life-oriented project courses as necessary and rewarding for all parties. Research-based evaluation provided useful information for developing the course design further.

Background: Government alcohol monopolies were created in North America and Scandinavia to limit health and social problems. The Swedish monopoly, Systembolaget, reports to a health ministry and controls the sale of all alcoholic beverages with > 3.5% alcohol/volume for off-premise consumption, within a public health mandate. Elsewhere, alcohol monopolies are being dismantled with evidence of increased consumption and harms. We describe innovative modelling techniques to estimate health outcomes in scenarios involving Systembolaget being replaced by 1) privately owned liquor stores, or 2) alcohol sales in grocery stores. The methods employed can be applied in other jurisdictions and for other policy changes. Methods: Impacts of the privatisation scenarios on pricing, outlet density, trading hours, advertising and marketing were estimated based on Swedish expert opinion and published evidence. Systematic reviews were conducted to estimate impacts on alcohol consumption in each scenario. Two methods were applied to estimate harm impacts: (i) alcohol attributable morbidity and mortality were estimated utilising the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP); (ii) ARIMA methods to estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and specific types of alcohol-related mortality and crime. Results: Replacing government stores with private liquor stores (Scenario 1) led to a 20.0% (95% CI, 15.3-24.7) increase in per capita consumption. Replacement with grocery stores (Scenario 2) led to a 31.2% (25.1-37.3%) increase. With InterMAHP there were 763 or + 47% (35-59%) and 1234 or + 76% (60-92%) more deaths per year, for Scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. With ARIMA, there were 850 (334-1444) more deaths per year in Scenario 1 and 1418 more in Scenario 2 (543-2505). InterMAHP also estimated 10,859 or + 29% (22-34%) and 16,118 or + 42% (35-49%) additional hospital stays per year respectively. Conclusions: There would be substantial adverse consequences for public health and safety were Systembolaget to be privatised. We demonstrate a new combined approach for estimating the impact of alcohol policies on consumption and, using two alternative methods, alcohol-attributable harm. This approach could be readily adapted to other policies and settings. We note the limitation that some significant sources of uncertainty in the estimates of harm impacts were not modelled.

Between August 2011 and January 2013, an outbreak of Salmonella enterica serovar Stanley (S. Stanley) infections affected 10 European Union (EU) countries, with a total of 710 cases recorded. Following an urgent inquiry in the Epidemic Intelligence Information System for food-and waterborne diseases (EPIS-FWD) on 29 June 2012, an international investigation was initiated including EU and national agencies for public health, veterinary health and food safety. Two of three local outbreak investigations undertaken by affected countries in 2012 identified turkey meat as a vehicle of infection. Furthermore, routine EU monitoring of animal sources showed that over 95% (n= 298) of the 311 S. Stanley isolates reported from animal sampling in 2011 originated from the turkey food production chain. In 2004-10, none had this origin. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profile analysis of outbreak isolates and historical S. Stanley human isolates revealed that the outbreak isolates had a novel PFGE profile that emerged in Europe in 2011. An indistinguishable PFGE profile was identified in 346 of 464 human, food, feed, environmental and animal isolates from 16 EU countries: 102 of 112 non-human isolates tested were from the turkey production chain. On the basis of epidemiological and microbiological evidence, turkey meat was considered the primary source of human infection, following contamination early in the animal production chain.

Between August 2011 and January 2013, an outbreak of Salmonella enterica serovar Stanley (S. Stanley) infections affected 10 European Union (EU) countries, with a total of 710 cases recorded. Following an urgent inquiry in the Epidemic Intelligence Information System for food- and waterborne diseases (EPIS-FWD) on 29 June 2012, an international investigation was initiated including EU and national agencies for public health, veterinary health and food safety. Two of three local outbreak investigations undertaken by affected countries in 2012 identified turkey meat as a vehicle of infection. Furthermore, routine EU monitoring of animal sources showed that over 95% (n=298) of the 311 S. Stanley isolates reported from animal sampling in 2011 originated from the turkey food production chain. In 2004–10, none had this origin. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) profile analysis of outbreak isolates and historical S. Stanley human isolates revealed that the outbreak isolates had a novel PFGE profile that emerged in Europe in 2011. An indistinguishable PFGE profile was identified in 346 of 464 human, food, feed, environmental and animal isolates from 16 EU countries: 102 of 112 non-human isolates tested were from the turkey production chain. On the basis of epidemiological and microbiological evidence, turkey meat was considered the primary source of human infection, following contamination early in the animal production chain.