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AbstractEmpirical results yield mixed evidence of the effect of remittances on economic growth in countries of origin. This note assesses the potential impact of remittance instability on total factor productivity in Morocco. It uses a threshold vector autoregression model for the period 1975–2014. Remittances are used as a threshold variable. Results show that the response of total factor productivity to shock in remittances is positive and stronger when those remittances exceed the value of 5.132 per cent of GDP with the reverse effect when they are lower than the threshold value. Public authorities may enhance remittances to accelerate a country's development. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Le phénomène de transferts de fonds suscite un débat passionnant au sein de la classe politique, des chercheurs et des universitaires. Ceci est dû au fait qu'il touche à des aspects humains, économiques et financiers. Les transferts de fonds sont considérés comme étant une source de financement importante pour la majorité des pays en développement. Le Maroc n'échappe pas à cette logique. Il est, en effet, l'un des pays qui reçoit le plus de transferts de fonds dans le monde. L'objet de cet article est d'étudier les propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds vers le Maroc. En utilisant des filtres économétriques adéquats et pertinents ainsi que des données trimestrielles nous arrivons à mettre en lumière des aspects empiriques importants des transferts de fonds. En effet, les transferts de fonds constituent un enjeu majeur pour l'économie marocaine, de même, jouer les rôles importants de stabilisateur et d'amortisseurs. Remittances raise a fascinating debate in the political class, researchers and academics. This is because they affect human, economic and financial aspects. In Morocco, remittances are considered an important source of funding. It is, indeed, one of the countries that receive the most remittances in the world. The aim of this paper is to study the cyclical properties of remittances to Morocco. Using appropriate data and relevant econometric filters we can highlight important empirical aspects of remittances. Indeed, remittances constitute a major challenge for the Moroccan economy as well, play important roles in stabilizing and as a shock absorber

Le phénomène de transferts de fonds suscite un débat passionnant au sein de la classe politique, des chercheurs et des universitaires. Ceci est dû au fait qu'il touche à des aspects humains, économiques et financiers. Les transferts de fonds sont considérés comme étant une source de financement importante pour la majorité des pays en développement. Le Maroc n'échappe pas à cette logique. Il est, en effet, l'un des pays qui reçoit le plus de transferts de fonds dans le monde. L'objet de cet article est d'étudier les propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds vers le Maroc. En utilisant des filtres économétriques adéquats et pertinents ainsi que des données trimestrielles nous arrivons à mettre en lumière des aspects empiriques importants des transferts de fonds. En effet, les transferts de fonds constituent un enjeu majeur pour l'économie marocaine, de même, jouer les rôles importants de stabilisateur et d'amortisseurs. Remittances raise a fascinating debate in the political class, researchers and academics. This is because they affect human, economic and financial aspects. In Morocco, remittances are considered an important source of funding. It is, indeed, one of the countries that receive the most remittances in the world. The aim of this paper is to study the cyclical properties of remittances to Morocco. Using appropriate data and relevant econometric filters we can highlight important empirical aspects of remittances. Indeed, remittances constitute a major challenge for the Moroccan economy as well, play important roles in stabilizing and as a shock absorber

The Tunisian political system is still in process of transitioning, causing high uncertainty and political instability. As remittances have long been perceived as a buffer against uncertainty surrounding unusual events, this study seeks to assess the role of remittances in times of rising socio-political unrest. To do so, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the behavior of remittances during troubled political transition. Specifically, detailed investigation of rescaled range(R/S) analysis to test whether remittances follow a long-memory process is carried out. Our findings tend to confirm the stable behavior of remittances. We can therefore characterize Tunisian migrants as regular customers in the future. This would affect positively both the balance of payments and the families who receive them. But this situation seems to be exogenous and is not related to the implementation of any policy to attract remittances. Hence the Paramount importance of designing a comprehensive strategy that enables remittances to play a more potential role in post-revolution periods and that renders emigration an integral part of growth strategies.

The Tunisian political system is still in process of transitioning, causing high uncertainty and political instability. As remittances have long been perceived as a buffer against uncertainty surrounding unusual events, this study seeks to assess the role of remittances in times of rising socio-political unrest. To do so, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the behavior of remittances during troubled political transition. Specifically, detailed investigation of rescaled range(R/S) analysis to test whether remittances follow a long-memory process is carried out. Our findings tend to confirm the stable behavior of remittances. We can therefore characterize Tunisian migrants as regular customers in the future. This would affect positively both the balance of payments and the families who receive them. But this situation seems to be exogenous and is not related to the implementation of any policy to attract remittances. Hence the Paramount importance of designing a comprehensive strategy that enables remittances to play a more potential role in post-revolution periods and that renders emigration an integral part of growth strategies.

Over the past decade, remittances to Tunisia have increased significantly. Meantime, the Tunisian economy has grown by as little as 0.6 percent on average with inflation averaging six percent. With the harmful economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis as well as the political unrest (especially after Tunisian President Kais Saied invoked Article 80 of the country's 2014 constitution to suspend parliament amid nationwide protests calling for the resignation of the government and the dissolution of the parliament), managing inflation risks seems growingly challenging. Our study is the first attempt to examine the relationship between remittances and Tunisia's inflation dynamics in the central and tail distributions over different correlation regimes. Particularly, we use a copula-based approach that sheds a new light on the dynamic dependence between inflation and remittances. This technique allows to control for possible asymmetries in the form of a high or crisis dependence and a low or a normal state dependence. Our results robustly reveal that remittances are prominent factor determining inflation in Tunisia. More interestingly, we show that remittances and inflation are more strongly correlated during high uncertainty conditions rather than low uncertainty regime. Such accurate insights on the dynamic relationship between remittances and inflation would allow the central bank to anticipate more effectively the evolution of inflation and to propose more appropriate instruments to control it in a context of high inflationary pressures and heightened political uncertainty.

The objective of this article is two folded. Firstly, we proceed to an analysis of the evolution of productive specialization in the enlarged EU, taking into account all its actual 27 member countries. Given their decomposability properties, we use the entropy-based indices to measure countries' relative specialization and then, given our rather short period of analysis, we use the bootstrap method to analyze the evolution of the specialization index. We first analyze all economic sectors and then, our analysis is more detailed focusing on manufacturing industries. Globally, we find that specialization is decreasing across all economic sectors, while it is increasing across manufacturing industries. Secondly, we study specialization determinants, with a special interest for the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI). For homogeneity reasons, we analyze two separate samples, one including only developed countries of the European Union and the other, only developing member countries. In order to take into account endogeneity highly probable of most of our independent variables, we use the vector autoregression (VAR) technique and analyse the impulse response functions. Globally, FDIs seem to positively influence countries' relative specialization, for our both samples and for both economic sectors and manufacturing industries. However, their impact appears weaker than most of the other independent variables, such as market potential or relative endowments.

The objective of this article is two folded. Firstly, we proceed to an analysis of the evolution of productive specialization in the enlarged EU, taking into account all its actual 27 member countries. Given their decomposability properties, we use the entropy-based indices to measure countries' relative specialization and then, given our rather short period of analysis, we use the bootstrap method to analyze the evolution of the specialization index. We first analyze all economic sectors and then, our analysis is more detailed focusing on manufacturing industries. Globally, we find that specialization is decreasing across all economic sectors, while it is increasing across manufacturing industries. Secondly, we study specialization determinants, with a special interest for the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI). For homogeneity reasons, we analyze two separate samples, one including only developed countries of the European Union and the other, only developing member countries. In order to take into account endogeneity highly probable of most of our independent variables, we use the vector autoregression (VAR) technique and analyse the impulse response functions. Globally, FDIs seem to positively influence countries' relative specialization, for our both samples and for both economic sectors and manufacturing industries. However, their impact appears weaker than most of the other independent variables, such as market potential or relative endowments.

This note analyses the impact of remittances on subjective poverty in the Latakia region in Syria. By using an online survey, results suggest that people who receive remittances are less likely to be significantly exposed to subjective poverty. Remittances have a meaningful effect on the well-being of the households receiving them despite an acute economic and political crisis.

Le phénomène migratoire suscite un débat passionné au sein de la classe politique, comme dans la communauté scientifique, aussi bien dans les pays d'accueil, que dans les pays d'origine. Sans doute ceci est-il dû au fait qu'il touche à plusieurs aspects : humains, économiques, sociaux ou financiers (Makhlouf, 2013). La question de la contribution des populations immigrées à l'économie des pays d'accueil gagne en audience dans le débat public des pays concernés. Dans la littérature également, les études sont nombreuses sur les déterminants des transferts de fonds et leur impact sur l'économie des pays d'origine. L'infl uence des facteurs internes au pays d'origine sur les transferts de fonds des migrants continue de susciter la curiosité. En effet, déterminer l'effet d'événements politiques ou sociaux majeurs dans leur pays d'origine sur les migrants n'est pas chose aisée. Si l'on peut postuler que les migrants sont sensibles à un choc survenu dans leur pays d'origine, par exemple le Printemps arabe, il est plus difficile d'en conclure que cette empathie les conduit inéluctablement à modifier leur comportement en matière de transfert de fond.

Le phénomène migratoire suscite un débat passionné au sein de la classe politique, comme dans la communauté scientifique, aussi bien dans les pays d'accueil, que dans les pays d'origine. Sans doute ceci est-il dû au fait qu'il touche à plusieurs aspects : humains, économiques, sociaux ou financiers (Makhlouf, 2013). La question de la contribution des populations immigrées à l'économie des pays d'accueil gagne en audience dans le débat public des pays concernés. Dans la littérature également, les études sont nombreuses sur les déterminants des transferts de fonds et leur impact sur l'économie des pays d'origine. L'infl uence des facteurs internes au pays d'origine sur les transferts de fonds des migrants continue de susciter la curiosité. En effet, déterminer l'effet d'événements politiques ou sociaux majeurs dans leur pays d'origine sur les migrants n'est pas chose aisée. Si l'on peut postuler que les migrants sont sensibles à un choc survenu dans leur pays d'origine, par exemple le Printemps arabe, il est plus difficile d'en conclure que cette empathie les conduit inéluctablement à modifier leur comportement en matière de transfert de fond.

The migration phenomenon provokes a passionate debate in the political class, as in the scientific community, both in the host countries and in the countries of origin. This is probably due to the fact that it affects several aspects: human, economic, social or financial (Makhlouf, 2013). The question of the contribution of immigrant populations to the economies of the host countries is gaining ground in the public debate in the countries concerned. Also in the literature, there are numerous studies on the determinants of remittances and their impact on the economies of countries of origin. The infliction of internal factors in the country of origin on remittances from migrants continues to give rise to curiosity. It is not easy to determine the effect of major political or social events in their country of origin on migrants. If it can be assumed that migrants are sensitive to a shock in their country of origin, such as the Arab Spring, it is more difficult to conclude that this empathy inevitably leads them to change their behaviour in terms of background transfer. ; Le phénomène migratoire suscite un débat passionné au sein de la classe politique, comme dans la communauté scientifique, aussi bien dans les pays d'accueil, que dans les pays d'origine. Sans doute ceci est-il dû au fait qu'il touche à plusieurs aspects : humains, économiques, sociaux ou financiers (Makhlouf, 2013). La question de la contribution des populations immigrées à l'économie des pays d'accueil gagne en audience dans le débat public des pays concernés. Dans la littérature également, les études sont nombreuses sur les déterminants des transferts de fonds et leur impact sur l'économie des pays d'origine. L'infl uence des facteurs internes au pays d'origine sur les transferts de fonds des migrants continue de susciter la curiosité. En effet, déterminer l'effet d'événements politiques ou sociaux majeurs dans leur pays d'origine sur les migrants n'est pas chose aisée. Si l'on peut postuler que les migrants sont sensibles à un choc survenu dans ...

Cet article analyse la relation empirique entre les transferts de fonds et la croissance économique dans les pays en transition se situant au sein de l'ancien bloc soviétique. Il cherche également à mesurer si l'effet des transferts de fonds est plus efficace dans les pays où la stabilité politique est plus présente, en utilisant la méthode des moindres carrés généralisés pour des données de panel, afin de contrôler l'hétéroscédasticité et la corrélation sérielle. Les résultats montrent principalement que les transferts de fonds ont un impact négatif sur la croissance et que ce dernier dépend de la stabilité politique des pays concernés. This paper examines the empirical relationship between remittances and economic growth in post-Soviet states, and the role that political stability plays in this context. Using Feasible Generalized Least Squares to tackle group heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in panels, we find that remittances have a significant negative correlation with the receiving countries' economic progress. Besides, this relationship is contingent upon the political stability the country enjoys.

Cet article analyse la relation empirique entre les transferts de fonds et la croissance économique dans les pays en transition se situant au sein de l'ancien bloc soviétique. Il cherche également à mesurer si l'effet des transferts de fonds est plus efficace dans les pays où la stabilité politique est plus présente, en utilisant la méthode des moindres carrés généralisés pour des données de panel, afin de contrôler l'hétéroscédasticité et la corrélation sérielle. Les résultats montrent principalement que les transferts de fonds ont un impact négatif sur la croissance et que ce dernier dépend de la stabilité politique des pays concernés. This paper examines the empirical relationship between remittances and economic growth in post-Soviet states, and the role that political stability plays in this context. Using Feasible Generalized Least Squares to tackle group heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in panels, we find that remittances have a significant negative correlation with the receiving countries' economic progress. Besides, this relationship is contingent upon the political stability the country enjoys.