Suchergebnisse

"Adjust to current world scarcities and to limits imposed by Planet Earth's fixed endowment of non renewable resources: learn to live with less." Such counsel reflects not a shortage of material endowment, but a short age of the quality of man—his state of indifference, inept ness or incompetence. "Adjust to current scarcities and threats of limits by resuming economic expansion so that output continues to increase more rapidly than popula tion." This course assumes no cornucopia of material abun dance in the world. It reflects the conviction that man has the power to assure continuous improvement in the quality of life. These alternative views are assessed in the light of existing doctrines of economic and societal change and in the light of the actual scarcities of 1974 and 1975. The article argues that today's food, energy, materials and over all national product scarcities are not caused by limitations of the earth's material endowments, but rather follow from man's limited horizons and limited performance. There is ample scope for continuous progress, particularly in the poor lands of the world. The real problem is the political will of man, operating through his private and public institutions, to create economic, legal and social conditions that encour age the expansion of individual participation in produc tive activity and that enhance each individual's capacity to contribute to national progress.

The argument of this article draws upon recent projections of resource requirements throughout the world in the year 2000, made for the United States National Com mission on Materials Policy. The projections for the world were also made separately in ten major component areas. All estimates for the year 2000 rest upon modern theory and mea surement of the dynamic characteristics of two basic constitu ent elements of materials requirements: (1) the prospect for progress in domestic output in these ten areas and (2) the intensity-of-use of nonrenewable materials, as per capita in come changes. While materials requirements in the year 2000 will grow markedly to levels at least three times those of the recent past, the method of projection gives significantly lower requirements levels than are estimated by others. A basic statistical conclusion is that rates of growth of supply will need to be significantly lower in the future than in the past. Ma terials prices will tend to decline, relative to other prices. The results lend support to the thesis that supply limitations are not likely to limit economic expansion in the future. It is flexibility in the demand for materials that is relevant for eco nomic growth; man and man's institutions have demonstrated their great capacity for such flexibility. It is argued that the mistaken identification of supply shortage with materials crisis rests on misinterpretations of the role that materials do, in fact, play. This point is illustrated in the current energy crisis. The article thus contrasts with neo-Malthusian propositions on limits to growth that are so well-publicized today.

The argument draws upon recent projections of resource requirements throughout the world in the yr 2000, made for the US Nat'l Commission on Materials Policy. The projections for the world were also made separately in 10 major component areas. All estimates for the yr 2000 rest upon modern theory & measurement of the dynamic characteristics of 2 basic constituent elements of materials requirements: (1) the prospect for progress in domestic output in these 10 areas, & (2) the intensity-of-use of nonrenewable materials, as per capita income changes. While materials requirements in the yr 2000 will grow markedly to levels at least 3 times those of the recent past, the method of projection gives signif'ly lower requirements levels than are estimated by others. A basic statistical conclusion is that rates of growth of supply will need to be signif'ly lower in the future than in the past. Materials prices will tend to decline, relative to other prices. The results lend support to the thesis that supply limitations are not likely to limit econ expansion in the future. It is flexibility in the demand for materials that is relevant for econ growth; man & man's instit's have demonstrated their great capacity for such flexibility. It is argued that the mistaken identification of supply shortage with materials crisis rests on misinterpretations of the role that materials do, in fact, play. This point is illustrated in the current energy crisis. The study thus contrasts with neo-Malthusian propositions on limits to growth that are so well-publicized today. Modified HA.