Suchergebnisse

The eternal truth of the future cannot, of course, be the goal of futures studies. Future is full of surprises, uncertainty, trends and trend breaks, irrationality and rationality, and it is changing and escaping from our hands as time goes by. It is also the result of actions made by innumerable more or less powerful actors. In this article, the author describes the general features of futures studies, especially in its impact on societal development and decision making. The aim is also to show that the change in societal development has brought new challenges to the theoretical and methodological aspects of futures studies. Finally, the author discusses the problem of linking scenarios of the future to social and political decision making.

In this article some 'megaphenomena' of our times are de cribed; they include man's conflict with nature, the end of the industrial era and the globalization process. These changes are creating chaos as well as a coherence or sustainability at the same time. It is maintained that real development in society and in culture needs the special form of deterministic order called chaos; often needed to establish something new. Turbulent times are changing values, especially the idea of progress. Instead of dominant Western ideas of linear or exponential progress, it is suggested that an evolutionary perspective for describing societal development is needed. Some preliminary hypotheses of the elements of this perspective are presented, including the principles of self‐organization, non‐linearity, dynamic systems and emergent properties in the development of societal systems.