Suchergebnisse

Conflict prevention has formed an integral part of the European Union's (EU's) Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) since the early 2000s, with investments in civilian peacebuilding and conflict prevention competences suiting well with the Union's 'civilian' or 'normative' power role. The transforming international order is, however, changing the strategic environment also for the Union's and its Member States' conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts. This article analyses the implications of the evolving strategic autonomy debate for the EU's role conception and concrete action in the realm of conflict prevention. While the search for a more capable EU in security and defence does not automatically counter the Union's selfconception as a conflict preventor and peacebuilder, it does appear to introduce meaningful shifts in the core objectives and values guiding its external action in conflict situations. An analysis of the EU's rhetoric and concrete uses of its institutional conflict prevention and peacebuilding tools in recent years in Africa suggests a growing centralization of security and geopolitical considerations at the expense of the core ethos of conflict prevention.
EU, Conflict prevention, Strategic autonomy, CFSP- Arica, Instrument contributing to stability and peace (IcSP)

How do state-recognized traditional authorities (TAs) influence local-level stability? Policies that recognize and give TAs public authority, particularly in many sub-Saharan African countries, have attracted growing scholarly interest in TAs. Drawing empirical evidence from South Africa, I test a proposition that internally contested TA structures contribute to grievances and opportunities that give rise to social unrest. The statistical analysis combines spatial data on municipality-level protests with new data on contested and uncontested TA structures. The results support the theoretical argument. Qualitative data further demonstrate how contested TAs fuel grievances and facilitate mobilization against the local authorities.

The continued influence of traditional governance in sub-Saharan Africa has sparked increasing attention among scholars exploring the role of non-state and quasi-state forms of governance in the modern state. However, little attention has been given to cross-country and over-time variation in the interaction between state and traditional governance structures, particularly in regard to its implications for intrastate peace. This study examines the conditions under which traditional governance contributes to state capacity to maintain peace. The article argues that the type of institutional interaction between the state and traditional authority structures influences a country's overall governance dynamics and its capacity to maintain peace. By combining new data on state–traditional authorities' interaction in sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2012 with intrastate armed conflict data, I conduct a systematic comparative analysis of whether concordant state–traditional authorities' interaction strengthens peace. The empirical results support the argument that integrating traditional authorities into the public administration lowers the risk of armed conflict in comparison to when they remain unrecognized by the state. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the added value of this type of interaction is conditional on the colonial history of a country.

The continued influence of traditional governance in sub-Saharan Africa has sparked increasing attention among scholars exploring the role of non-state and quasi-state forms of governance in the modern state. However, little attention has been given to cross-country and over-time variation in the interaction between state and traditional governance structures, particularly in regard to its implications for intrastate peace. This study examines the conditions under which traditional governance contributes to state capacity to maintain peace. The article argues that the type of institutional interaction between the state and traditional authority structures influences a country's overall governance dynamics and its capacity to maintain peace. By combining new data on state–traditional authorities' interaction in sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2012 with intrastate armed conflict data, I conduct a systematic comparative analysis of whether concordant state–traditional authorities' interaction strengthens peace. The empirical results support the argument that integrating traditional authorities into the public administration lowers the risk of armed conflict in comparison to when they remain unrecognized by the state. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the added value of this type of interaction is conditional on the colonial history of a country.

Communal violence is a major source of insecurity within and across borders, sparking significant displacement flows and disturbing livelihoods. While conflict literature has shed light onto its causes, the existing research has paid little systematic attention to the spatial dynamics of communal violence. We distinguish between spillover of violence and spillover of predictors. Spillover of violence is defined as conflict incidences occurring as a direct response to communal violence in a nearby location. Spillover of predictors describes instances of communal violence that occur due to nearby conflict-inducing factors. We clarify theoretical pathways for both spillover processes, focusing on drought exposure affecting not locally but in nearby areas. Applying spatial models, we test the expectations regarding nearby violence breeding violence and nearby drought increasing violence with data on incidences of communal violence for sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2014). Our results demonstrate that communal violence explains nearby communal violence through different spillover processes. We also find evidence for an increase in violence due to exposure from neighborhood droughts as well as other conflict-inducing factors.

Why do some non-violent uprisings escalate into armed violence while others do not? We suggest that horizontal polarisation contributes to the escalation of non-violent campaigns. We examine the effect of ethnic cleavages between the campaign and its opponent and movement cohesion as explanatory factors for escalation into civil war and non-state violence. Statistical analysis of all major non-violent campaigns (1970–2014) shows that non-violent conflicts with ethnic cleavages have a higher risk of escalating into armed violence in particular, when the conflict takes place over governmental aims. The results also indicate that movement cohesion alleviates the risk of armed escalation.

Shared qualitative data – such as interview or focus group transcripts – can be used for secondary qualitative data analysis (SQDA). Yet, much archived qualitative data remains unused after primary analysis. Applications and guidance on how to employ SQDA are rare. We use an example application of SQDA studying informal institutions and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa to show: First, SQDA depends on how primary researchers share 'raw' qualitative data and additional documentation to understand primary context. Second, deductive and inductive uses of SQDA require varying engagement with primary data. Third, current practices of participant consent often do not consider potential SQDA. Fourth, SQDA is not less time-consuming than primary data research but offers different benefits, such as expanding the comparative sample of cases or avoiding research fatigue of studied communities. Going forward, SQDA requires greater consensus on the instruments (e.g. transcripts and participant consent forms) used by researchers and further applications of hypothesis-testing and hypothesis-generating designs.

This Chaillot Paper is the outcome of a Task Force on African Futures, launched in November 2019 by the EUISS in partnership with leading African and European research institutions. The Task Force identified the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as a key factor driving economic, technological and societal transformations in Africa in the next decade. Based on the premise that continental integration is critical for Africa's economic recovery and future resilience, the publication portrays what an integrated and prosperous African continent could look like in 2030, thanks to the full implementation of the AfCFTA. It describes the pathways, milestones and initiatives that can lead to such a desirable scenario in ten selected, cross-cutting areas, showing how coordinated policy action in these sectors is essential to achieve trade integration. In contrast, it also warns about what could happen if negative sectoral trends are not addressed, highlighting the perils and costs of inaction. Finally, it argues that integration under the AfCFTA can be a primary conduit for the strengthening of African multilateralism, and an antidote to proxy conflicts and depredation.