Suchergebnisse

From the concept of territorial energy system (TES), defined as a coupling between a territorial system and an energy system, and after that the actual situation and different possibilities of energy transition being examined, we model the energy transition of the Reunion electrical system, with a multi-agent model developed under the Anylogic platform. In this model, the power plants and the substation HV/MV, localized in IRIS and connected to the electricity network, form the exchange interface between the two subsystems coupled. The dynamic of the model is based on two levels of nested temporalities. Interaction between territorial dynamics and energy dynamics is achieved through hourly simulation of resources (solar, wind, hydraulic) and demand (load curves), based on hourly observations (weather data, data of load curves, etc.), and calibrated with the statistics of production and consumption of the reference year. Scenarios are structured by assumptions on the demand and production, and are with a time horizon of decades and an annual granularity. They allow to understand the effect of different combinations of parameters (threshold of saturation of PV, storage, PV coverage, demand, etc.), to get insights on how the energy system can evolve. This could be used to provide aids to policy's decisions according to objectives (reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, control of prices of energy, development of renewable .). ; A partir du concept de système énergétique territorial (SET), défini comme le couplage d'un système territorial et d'un système énergétique, et après avoir examiné la situation actuelle et la possibilité d'une transition énergétique d'un SET, nous modélisons la transition du système électrique de La Réunion, avec un modèle informatique à base d'agents, développé sur la plateforme Anylogic. Dans ce modèle, les centrales de production et les postes sources, localisés dans les IRIS et connectés au réseau, constituent l'interface d'échange entre les deux sous-systèmes en couplage. La dynamique du modèle repose sur deux niveaux de temporalités emboitées. L'interaction entre la dynamique territoriale et la dynamique énergétique est réalisée grâce à la simulation horaire des ressources (solaire, éolienne, hydraulique) et de la demande (courbes de charge), basée sur des observations horaires réelles (météorologiques, courbes de charge, etc.), et calibrée avec les statistiques de production et de consommation de l'année de référence. Les scénarios d'évolution, structurés par des hypothèses sur la demande et la production, s'inscrivent sur plusieurs dizaines d'années avec une granularité annuelle. Ils permettent de comprendre l'effet de différentes combinaisons de paramètres (seuil de saturation du PV, stockage, taux de couverture du PV, demande, etc.) et d'acquérir ainsi des connaissances sur la manière dont peut évoluer le système énergétique. Ceci permet de proposer des pistes de réflexion sur les politiques à mener en fonction des objectifs visés (réduction des gaz à effet de serre, maîtrise du prix d'énergie, développement des renouvelables.).

Crude oil, as a strategic energy resource for social development, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in recent years, impacting the sustainability of economy, ecological environment, and energy security. This paper utilized weekly crude oil price data from January 2003 to March 2023 to examine price bubbles in different markets using the SADF and GSADF methods, identified the duration of price bubbles by comparing the BSADF series with critical value series, assessed the risk of price bubbles in different markets using the established comprehensive indicators, and explored sustainable energy policies from the perspectives of both crude oil importers and exporters. The findings of this study indicate that bubbles exist in the world's major crude oil markets, with linkages and differences in their origin and termination across different markets. The risk of price bubbles varies widely across different crude oil markets and has significant geographical characteristics, with a higher risk in the markets such as OPEC, Oman, and Dubai, and a lower risk in the markets such as WTI, Brent, and Daqing. This paper proposes sustainable energy policies from the perspective of energy importers and exporters. This is of great importance to enhance the ability of different countries to cope with the risk of crude oil price bubbles and to ensure the sustainability of economic development, ecological environment, and energy security.

Issues concerning deleterious effects of an adverse living environment, characterized by crowded, noisy, and dirty conditions, have been debatable. One way out of this debate is delineating paths through which the living environment affects outcome variables. The resident's perception of the environment and social relation may lead to such paths. While past studies tended to demonstrate the mediating role of social support, they employed samples of college students only. By contrast, the present study investigates the mediating processes with a sample of 122 bedspace residents in Hong Kong. Results of hierarchical modeling illustrate that the adverse living environment affected the resident's psychosocial well-being indirectly. Notably, the objective living environment was related to the resident's perception of the environment, which in turn was related to social relations, characterized by social problems and social support. The perception and social relations were then related to the resident's depressive affect and loneliness. However, the adverse living environment did not have significant direct and mediated effects on the resident's self-assessed health. Besides, this study reveals that stressful status, including having a criminal record, being divorced, and the duration of unemployment, tended to be deleterious to the resident's psychosocial and physical well-being.