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International audience ; Global warming is in essence an economic and political problem. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global warming have the same damaging effect regardless of the country in which they originate. All regions of the world are affected, some more than others, regardless of whether and to what extent they contribute to the problem. Protecting the atmosphere and therefore preventing global warming implies a drastic reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions. However, in the absence of an international agreement on emissions control, countries adopt free‐riding behaviors. Each country counts on others to reduce emissions and to incur the resulting abatement cost. The Kyoto Protocol was the first international agreement in which some countries (Annex I to the protocol) committed to emission reduction targets over the period 2008‐2012. The protocol's impact has however been limited, because of a lack of commitments from rapidly growing emerging countries such as China and India, and non‐ratification by the United States. The challenge of the Copenhagen summit in 2009 was to determine the rules for the post‐Kyoto period. It was therefore essential to ensure the ratification of a global agreement on emission reduction targets and to include all major industrialized and emerging countries. Although negotiations during the summit failed to reach a global agreement, in late January 2010 some countries including major emerging nations pledged their commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as part of the Copenhagen Agreement. Emissions control commitments now cover 80% of 2005 global GHG emissions. These pledges occur until 2020 and constitute period 2 of the Kyoto Protocol (2013‐2020). The challenge now is to get countries to converge towards a global and multilateral agreement to keep in line with ambitious targets to limit GHG emissions. This is the ultimate aim of the Conference of Parties due to take place in Paris in 2015. While the deadline ...

International audience ; Global warming is in essence an economic and political problem. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global warming have the same damaging effect regardless of the country in which they originate. All regions of the world are affected, some more than others, regardless of whether and to what extent they contribute to the problem. Protecting the atmosphere and therefore preventing global warming implies a drastic reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions. However, in the absence of an international agreement on emissions control, countries adopt free‐riding behaviors. Each country counts on others to reduce emissions and to incur the resulting abatement cost. The Kyoto Protocol was the first international agreement in which some countries (Annex I to the protocol) committed to emission reduction targets over the period 2008‐2012. The protocol's impact has however been limited, because of a lack of commitments from rapidly growing emerging countries such as China and India, and non‐ratification by the United States. The challenge of the Copenhagen summit in 2009 was to determine the rules for the post‐Kyoto period. It was therefore essential to ensure the ratification of a global agreement on emission reduction targets and to include all major industrialized and emerging countries. Although negotiations during the summit failed to reach a global agreement, in late January 2010 some countries including major emerging nations pledged their commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as part of the Copenhagen Agreement. Emissions control commitments now cover 80% of 2005 global GHG emissions. These pledges occur until 2020 and constitute period 2 of the Kyoto Protocol (2013‐2020). The challenge now is to get countries to converge towards a global and multilateral agreement to keep in line with ambitious targets to limit GHG emissions. This is the ultimate aim of the Conference of Parties due to take place in Paris in 2015. While the deadline ...

Les Cahiers de la Chaire Modélisation Prospective au service du Développement Durable : http://www.modelisation-prospective.org/Documents/WP/WP_2011_02_Assoumou-Maizi.pdf ; Representing 20% of the world primary energy supply, natural gas is a key component of today's energy systems. Its lower carbon content per unit of energy, its versatility and relative abundance make it a strategic fuel for addressing both the world's future demand for energy and the climate change concern. Hence several medium-term projections advocate the increased use of natural gas. Yet while its contribution as a solution to the climate change issue is positive in comparison to more carbonated fossil energy sources, which represent 60% of the world primary energy supply, burning natural gas has an absolute negative emission contribution. How then are its projected uses affected by stringent environmental policies? For what end-use is it the best candidate? In this paper we address these questions for France, which is the fourth largest natural gas market in the European Union and has a 97% import dependency. We focus on end-use sectors and we quantify the evolution of gas allocation up to 2050.Our results highlight significant reductions in the expected growth rate before 2030, followed by a clear decrease that brings the natural gas industry back to its current levels. In a case where it does not succeed in securing a significant market share in the transport sector, consumption in 2050 evens out at around 1990 levels. We quantify the dependency on technological developments for gasification technologies and natural gas-fueled vehicles, and highlight the sensitivity of cross-sector allocation to import prices.

Representing 20% of the world primary energy supply, natural gas is a key component of today's energy systems. Its lower carbon content per unit of energy, its versatility and relative abundance make it a strategic fuel for addressing both the world's future demand for energy and the climate change concern. Hence several medium-term projections advocate the increased use of natural gas. Yet while its contribution as a solution to the climate change issue is positive in comparison to more carbonated fossil energy sources, which represent 60% of the world primary energy supply, burning natural gas has an absolute negative emission contribution. How then are its projected uses affected by stringent environmental policies? For what end-use is it the best candidate? In this paper we address these questions for France, which is the fourth largest natural gas market in the European Union and has a 97% import dependency. We focus on end-use sectors and we quantify the evolution of gas allocation up to 2050.Our results highlight significant reductions in the expected growth rate before 2030, followed by a clear decrease that brings the natural gas industry back to its current levels. In a case where it does not succeed in securing a significant market share in the transport sector, consumption in 2050 evens out at around 1990 levels. We quantify the dependency on technological developments for gasification technologies and natural gas-fueled vehicles, and highlight the sensitivity of cross-sector allocation to import prices.

Les Cahiers de la Chaire Modélisation Prospective au service du Développement Durable : http://www.modelisation-prospective.org/Documents/WP/WP_2011_02_Assoumou-Maizi.pdf ; Representing 20% of the world primary energy supply, natural gas is a key component of today's energy systems. Its lower carbon content per unit of energy, its versatility and relative abundance make it a strategic fuel for addressing both the world's future demand for energy and the climate change concern. Hence several medium-term projections advocate the increased use of natural gas. Yet while its contribution as a solution to the climate change issue is positive in comparison to more carbonated fossil energy sources, which represent 60% of the world primary energy supply, burning natural gas has an absolute negative emission contribution. How then are its projected uses affected by stringent environmental policies? For what end-use is it the best candidate? In this paper we address these questions for France, which is the fourth largest natural gas market in the European Union and has a 97% import dependency. We focus on end-use sectors and we quantify the evolution of gas allocation up to 2050.Our results highlight significant reductions in the expected growth rate before 2030, followed by a clear decrease that brings the natural gas industry back to its current levels. In a case where it does not succeed in securing a significant market share in the transport sector, consumption in 2050 evens out at around 1990 levels. We quantify the dependency on technological developments for gasification technologies and natural gas-fueled vehicles, and highlight the sensitivity of cross-sector allocation to import prices.

Representing 20% of the world primary energy supply, natural gas is a key component of today's energy systems. Its lower carbon content per unit of energy, its versatility and relative abundance make it a strategic fuel for addressing both the world's future demand for energy and the climate change concern. Hence several medium-term projections advocate the increased use of natural gas. Yet while its contribution as a solution to the climate change issue is positive in comparison to more carbonated fossil energy sources, which represent 60% of the world primary energy supply, burning natural gas has an absolute negative emission contribution. How then are its projected uses affected by stringent environmental policies? For what end-use is it the best candidate? In this paper we address these questions for France, which is the fourth largest natural gas market in the European Union and has a 97% import dependency. We focus on end-use sectors and we quantify the evolution of gas allocation up to 2050.Our results highlight significant reductions in the expected growth rate before 2030, followed by a clear decrease that brings the natural gas industry back to its current levels. In a case where it does not succeed in securing a significant market share in the transport sector, consumption in 2050 evens out at around 1990 levels. We quantify the dependency on technological developments for gasification technologies and natural gas-fueled vehicles, and highlight the sensitivity of cross-sector allocation to import prices.

Cet article, avant relecture et correction pour la revue J3EA, a fait l'objet d'une communication aux journées 2007 de la section électrotechnique sur le thème Energie et Développement Durable à l'antenne de Bretagne de l'ENS de Cachan les 14 et 15 mars 2007. ; International audience ; Les stratèges qui se préoccupent des questions liées à l'Energie, doivent, dans un contexte international complexe, se doter d'outils normatifs performants pour faire face à des contraintes multiformes (quotas d'émissions, taxes, ouverture des marchés, raréfaction de la ressource). Dans cet article, nous montrerons comment une optimisation technico-économique de la chaîne énergétique, au moyen du modèle MARKAL-France, permet à l'horizon 2050, une approche prospective pertinente des conséquences environnementales de différentes options de la politique énergétique française. En particulier, l'impact environnemental de ces choix sera évalué à travers le niveau des émissions de CO2.

Cet article, avant relecture et correction pour la revue J3EA, a fait l'objet d'une communication aux journées 2007 de la section électrotechnique sur le thème Energie et Développement Durable à l'antenne de Bretagne de l'ENS de Cachan les 14 et 15 mars 2007. ; International audience ; Les stratèges qui se préoccupent des questions liées à l'Energie, doivent, dans un contexte international complexe, se doter d'outils normatifs performants pour faire face à des contraintes multiformes (quotas d'émissions, taxes, ouverture des marchés, raréfaction de la ressource). Dans cet article, nous montrerons comment une optimisation technico-économique de la chaîne énergétique, au moyen du modèle MARKAL-France, permet à l'horizon 2050, une approche prospective pertinente des conséquences environnementales de différentes options de la politique énergétique française. En particulier, l'impact environnemental de ces choix sera évalué à travers le niveau des émissions de CO2.

International audience ; Limiting the raise of global temperatures requires a rapid and massive deployment of solution to reduce carbon emissions at all levels. The development of intermittent renewable energy resources has received significant support from governments, and its production will considerably increase. The introduction of this high electrical production presents some challenges, in particular, the allocation of high production in low consumption periods. One of the most promoted solutions to cope with this challenge is the integration of power-togas technologies (P2G). In this sense, the European Union, and some of its members have presented their plans supporting the production and consumption of hydrogen. At the same time, it can be noted that the development strategies for these technologies are largely deployed at the local level. To allow local territories to contribute to the decarbonization of the energy system, national governments are extending the application of its energy policy to its territories. This is the case in France that over the last decades, has adopted laws to extend the application of its energy policy at local level, with the objective of ensuring better, faster deployment of its energy transition and reaching the carbon neutrality by 2050. As a result, the French regions have targeted objectives for the development of their local energy resources. The SUD Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Region (PACA) in southern France, in response to these air, energy, environment, and climate change adaptation responsibilities, has targeted as objective to reach the carbon neutrality by 2050, which is concerned by the massive development of solar photovoltaic production as the region has considerable access to solar resources. The region as well has presented a hydrogen plan to support the development of this energy in the region and contribute to the national efforts. This study, conducted with TIMES PACA a bottom-up optimization model representing the energy system of the PACA region, analyzes how P2G technologies contribute to the development of solar resources. Results show that P2G technologies are essential for the decarbonization of the regional energy system and the renewable deployment, what is needed to the national and global decarbonization objectives and is expected to structure the whole hydrogen chain.

International audience ; Limiting the raise of global temperatures requires a rapid and massive deployment of solution to reduce carbon emissions at all levels. The development of intermittent renewable energy resources has received significant support from governments, and its production will considerably increase. The introduction of this high electrical production presents some challenges, in particular, the allocation of high production in low consumption periods. One of the most promoted solutions to cope with this challenge is the integration of power-togas technologies (P2G). In this sense, the European Union, and some of its members have presented their plans supporting the production and consumption of hydrogen. At the same time, it can be noted that the development strategies for these technologies are largely deployed at the local level. To allow local territories to contribute to the decarbonization of the energy system, national governments are extending the application of its energy policy to its territories. This is the case in France that over the last decades, has adopted laws to extend the application of its energy policy at local level, with the objective of ensuring better, faster deployment of its energy transition and reaching the carbon neutrality by 2050. As a result, the French regions have targeted objectives for the development of their local energy resources. The SUD Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Region (PACA) in southern France, in response to these air, energy, environment, and climate change adaptation responsibilities, has targeted as objective to reach the carbon neutrality by 2050, which is concerned by the massive development of solar photovoltaic production as the region has considerable access to solar resources. The region as well has presented a hydrogen plan to support the development of this energy in the region and contribute to the national efforts. This study, conducted with TIMES PACA a bottom-up optimization model representing the energy system of the PACA region, ...

International audience Central and South America and the Caribbean countries share energy and climate features that are quite different from the rest of the world, including a highly renewable energy mix and very high renewable energy potentials, along with high deforestation and degradation rates which call for regional answers to regional issues. This paper assesses the impact of national contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change using an energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family. This approach enables a bottom-up comparison between past pledges (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) agreed on at COP21. Long-term economic optimization leads to decarbonizing the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Stringent climate policies as modeled here achieve emission reductions of 40% below the current baseline by 2050. NDCs produce stronger emission reductions than NAMAs at regional scale; however, the first contributor to emission reductions in absolute terms in Latin America is the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector, not energy.

International audience ; Asian countries have sharply increased their energy consumption with economic growth, inducing an extremely high dependency on energy fossil due to a low level of energy resources. In 2011, Asia's share in global energy consumption reached 40%, of which China, India, Japan and South Korea represented 70%. Furthermore, these countries are ranked among the world's largest CO2 emitters. Hence, bioenergy is currently being highlighted to diversify the energy mix and to mitigate climate change in these countries. Along with the direct bioenergy promotion policies, a variety of economic policy instruments are introduced as emission trading scheme, carbon and energy taxes. In this study, we estimated the evolution of bioenergy deployment from current energy and climate policies through scenarios analysis using bottom-up energy system optimization model, TIAM-FR, a TIMES family model from ETSAP/IEA. Different scenarios were developed with basis on political instruments in these countries: (1) BAU, (2) Global climate change (50% of world GHG emissions reduction), (3) National GHG mitigation targets from INDCs, (4) National GHG mitigation targets + Bioenergy policy, (5) Carbon tax system. According to the results, the higher is climate constraints, the higher is bioenergy development. Hence, carbon tax system derived the most bioenergy consumption by 2030 followed by global climate change scenario. Current INDCs target is evaluated as not sufficient to promote bioenergy development without renewable energy targets and biofuel blending mandates.

Latin America presents important energy resources and a relatively low level of CO 2 emissions. Energy needs increase and are expected to increase more and more with the objective of development and of energy access. Moreover, Latin America is already impacted by climate change with, for example, first snow, inundation, etc. So to evolve his development in sustainable manner, low carbon strategy has to be developed. This paper focuses on long term analysis of energy climate issues in Latin America and particularly studies the impact of climate policy on its energy system. Solutions to tend toward a decarbonized system are analyzed and a focus is made on Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Notably, an interesting result is the fact that, while the carbon capture and storage option is favored in case of bioplants development, appearing as a first climate-protect option, this is not the case with fossil power plants, and renewables development is preferred, even when BECCS is " excluded " .

International audience ; Asian countries have sharply increased their energy consumption with economic growth, inducing an extremely high dependency on energy fossil due to a low level of energy resources. In 2011, Asia's share in global energy consumption reached 40%, of which China, India, Japan and South Korea represented 70%. Furthermore, these countries are ranked among the world's largest CO2 emitters. Hence, bioenergy is currently being highlighted to diversify the energy mix and to mitigate climate change in these countries. Along with the direct bioenergy promotion policies, a variety of economic policy instruments are introduced as emission trading scheme, carbon and energy taxes. In this study, we estimated the evolution of bioenergy deployment from current energy and climate policies through scenarios analysis using bottom-up energy system optimization model, TIAM-FR, a TIMES family model from ETSAP/IEA. Different scenarios were developed with basis on political instruments in these countries: (1) BAU, (2) Global climate change (50% of world GHG emissions reduction), (3) National GHG mitigation targets from INDCs, (4) National GHG mitigation targets + Bioenergy policy, (5) Carbon tax system. According to the results, the higher is climate constraints, the higher is bioenergy development. Hence, carbon tax system derived the most bioenergy consumption by 2030 followed by global climate change scenario. Current INDCs target is evaluated as not sufficient to promote bioenergy development without renewable energy targets and biofuel blending mandates.