Observed trends and modelling paradigms on the social and environmental aspects of the energy transition. Deliverable 2.1. Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project
In line with its commitments to lower carbon emissions under the Paris Agreement and its own 2030 Climate & Energy Framework, the European Union (EU) has committed to increase the share of renewable energy use–around 15% in 2018–to be at least 32% by 2030. Achieving this will require a major reconfiguration of current energy systems in what could be seen as an example of a socio-technical transition or, more specifically, of an 'energy transition'. The key driver of this transition will be the electrification of heating and mobility functions. However, owing to the intermittent nature of most renewable energy sources (RES), this will need to be accompanied by the increased decentralisation and digitalisation of electricity networks. Existing energy system modelling softwares can simulate the dynamics of many of these processes. Nevertheless, they generally do not adequately capture the social and ecological aspects of the technologies that will drive this transition. Accordingly, the report aims to identify ways that future modelling applications–such as the ENVIRO and QTDIAN modules to be developed within the current project–can be used to address this gap and what information, theories, frameworks and methodologies exist that can guide such processes. Following a brief introduction to the key concepts involved, Section 2 provides a summary of the current energy system at the global and EU scale, followed by a detailed investigation into the technologies most relevant to the transition towards the greater use of renewable energy. This includes all important energy supply, demand and storage technologies. Recognising that achieving a just and sustainable energy transition will also require changes within society itself, a selection of six key social trends relating to the energy transition are also discussed. Collectively, these trends suggest that addressing issues of social acceptance, democracy and justice are likely to greatly improve the success of transition processes. Section 3 outlines a number of ...