Suchergebnisse

The paper proposes new approaches to assessing the sustainability of budget revenues in a region, which have been tested on the example of 83 subjects of the Russian Federation in 2010-2017. The sustainability of budget revenues is estimated on the basis of time series of two indicators: the ratio of sub-federal budget revenues to GRP and real income of sub-federal budgets per capita. To exclude economies of scale and eliminate system-wide risk, both indicators are calculated as a ratio to average Russian values. Using the construction of temporary linear regressions, a steady growth rate, absolute risk and relative risk of budget revenues are determined. For a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of budget revenues in a region, we proposed the Arrow-Pratt function with the incorporated risk aversion parameter of 1.5. Using the proposed technique, we evaluated the absolute and relative risk, as well as the sustainability of budget revenues in the Russian regions. Assessments based on the two alternative indicators showed a high correlation. Our study revealed that the least stable budget systems are typical for some border regions, including the backward North Caucasian republics and Far Eastern regions with an unstable economy, and Tyumen Oblast, which is quite developed, but depends on the world market. At the same time, some extractive regions (Republic of Sakha), on the contrary, showed a high stability of budget revenues

The article investigates the impact of the 2020 pandemic on tax revenues of Russian regions at the stages of their collection and allocation to regional budgets. To exclude the influence of the seasonal component and uneven receipts of various taxes to the budget, the moving annual tax revenues were calculated with a shift of one month. Based on these data for 2013-March 2020, linear time regressions were built and decomposed into 8 taxes and tax groups. These regressions were used to predict non-pandemic tax revenues for different regions in April-December 2020. The impact of the pandemic on the regional tax losses (gains) and their decomposition by sources was calculated through the deviation of the actual revenues from their predicted non-pandemic values on an accrual basis until the end of 2020. We found that the pandemic had led to losses of 13.9 % of total tax revenues in the country and 6.2 % of regional budgets' own tax revenues. The mining regions are the most affected by the pandemic. On the contrary, in some Far Eastern regions, there is an abnormal increase in tax collections. The largest contribution to the decrease in tax revenues at the consolidated and federal levels was made by the MET receipts; they fell sharply due to lower prices and volumes of oil and gas. However, the negative effect of this decrease at the federal level was dampened by stabilizing VAT receipts. Excise taxes played a positive role in mitigating pandemic risks. The tax distribution system has shown its equalizing function when allocating tax revenues to sub-federal budgets. The largest negative contribution to the change in regional tax revenues during the 2020 pandemic was made by the corporate income tax, while the negative impact of property taxes and special tax regimes turned out to be less significant. Personal income tax has proven to be the main damper of tax revenues at the regional level. The results obtained are applicable to the management of the state fiscal revenues during pandemic crises

Research background: We are guided by concepts linking political trust with the perceived rank of people in the wealth hierarchy, their confidence in other people, and the means they use to learn about events at home and abroad.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to assess and analyse at the micro level the impact of subjective welfare, interpersonal trust and the intensity of usage of television & radio or the Internet to search for news on political trust in four levels of Russian government.Methods: The study is based on microdata from the Life in Transition Surveys provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Ordinal logit regressions are constructed to evaluate the impact of test and control variables on political trust in the Russian president, federal, regional, and local governments in 2010 and 2016.Findings & value added: We identify a reverse of political trust in the upper levels of the Russian government between 2010 and 2016, when the impact of perceived welfare level changes from positive to negative. This phenomenon is explained by the focus of the policy of the federal centre on sup-porting the poor groups of the population, as well as its distancing from business. In contrast, the positive, albeit inconsistent, effect of subjective wealth on trust in lower-level governments is due to the benefits that businesses can gain from interaction with local authorities. We find the positive impact of controlled television and radio on trust in the upper echelons of power, along with the negative impact of the freer Internet on political trust in regional and local authorities. We also confirm the hypothesis of a positive and significant relationship between interpersonal and political trust, highlighting the role of social capital. Finally, our research shows that in systems of the hierarchical type, such as Russia, specific mechanisms for maintaining political trust are established. They are associated with the redistribution of public expectations and claims to different branches of government. The results obtained are applicable for managing political trust through building a democratic state and civil society.

Цель настоящего исследования – анализ и количественное оценивание влияния институциональных факторов на политическое доверие различным уровням власти (федеральной, региональной и местной) в современной России. Данные и методы. Исследование основано на микроданных опроса Европейского банка реконструкции и развития (ЕБРР) «Мониторинг уровня жизни домохозяйств/индивидов в развитых, переходных и развивающихся странах» (LiTS – Life in Transition Survey). В качестве институциональных факторов доверия нами рассматривались воспринимаемая эффективность и коррупционность органов власти, а также уровень межличностного доверия. Дополнительной объясняющей переменной стал субъективный дециль богатства домохозяйств. Для оценивания параметров модели использовались линейные регрессии с инструментальными переменными. Результаты и их применение. Во-первых, нами было установлено, что в 2016 году главной детерминантой доверия российских граждан президенту была воспринимаемая эффективность действий федерального правительства. В то же время главным фактором (не)доверия российских граждан местным органам власти был воспринимаемый уровень коррупции на местах. Во-вторых, мы установили, что бедные домохозяйства оказывались наиболее лояльными по отношению к российскому президенту группами населения, и объяснили данный феномен активной перераспределительной политикой федеральных властей. В-третьих, на микроуровне мы обнаружили существенную положительную связь политического доверия с межличностным доверием. В заключение даны рекомендации относительно эффективного управления политическим доверием в современной России. ; The aim of this study is to analyze and assess the impact of institutional factors on political trust in various levels of government (federal, regional and local) in modern Russia. Data and methods. The study is based on microdata from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) "Life in Transition Survey" (LiTS). We examined such institutional factors of political trust as perceived government performance and level of corruption, as well as the level of interpersonal trust. The subjective decile of household wealth was an additional explanatory variable in our analysis. We estimated the model parameters using linear regressions with instrumental variables. Results and their application. First, we found that in 2016 the perceived effectiveness of the federal government was the main determinant of Russian trust in the president. At the same time, the perceived level of local corruption was a major factor of Russian citizens' (mis)trust in local authorities. Second, we found that poor households turned out to be the most loyal groups of the population towards the Russian president, and we explained this phenomenon by the active redistributive policy of the federal authorities. Third, we revealed a significant positive relationship between political and interpersonal trust at the micro level. In conclusion, we made recommendations on the effective management of political trust in modern Russia.