Suchergebnisse

In an interview with Time Magazine in December, President Obama made the bold assertion that '[t]he United States is going to be a net exporter of energy because of new technologies and what we're doing with natural gas and oil.' Although he did not place a timescale on this prediction or specify what new technologies he meant, his comment reflects a radical shift that has been taking place in US energy policy thinking. The largest single cause of the shift has been the boom in US unconventional oil and gas production over the last six years. Domestic natural gas production is at record levels, averaging 65.9 bcf/d in 2012, while total oil production exceeded the 10 mb/d mark in October, for the first time in over 20 years. The rapid growth in production has led to speculation, in Washington and among market analysts, that the USA might achieve energy independence. No longer relying on imports, particularly from Middle Eastern countries, holds strong political appeal, especially when it offers additional domestic jobs in oil and gas production and an improved balance of trade. However, despite the positive outlook for US production, there are several factors limiting the prospects for America's energy exports.

The political turmoil that has swept across many parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) since the beginning of the Arab Spring in December 2010 and the tightening of international sanctions against Iran in 2012 have reignited the recurring debate about energy security and the reliability of MENA as an energy supplier. In this paper, we examine the impact of the past three years of political turmoil in MENA on oil and gas markets. We argue that although many disruptions did occur and oil prices did rise, especially following the Libyan revolution in 2011 and when fears of a potential military confrontation between Iran and the USA intensified in early 2012, the short-term effects on oil and gas markets of recent events in the region have been less dramatic than originally feared. The Arab Spring did not destabilize the large Gulf oil and gas producers; the rise in oil price induced by political and geopolitical factors proved to be transient; and oil and gas markets have shown relative resilience in filling the supply gap and in redirecting oil and gas trade flows. Beyond the immediate impact of the past three years of political turmoil in the MENA, however, we argue that it is the more subtle, long-term effects of regional political instability and international sanctions that are likely to leave the most lasting mark on regional oil and gas markets. Potential repercussions are likely to be felt through several years of an unstable regulatory and investment environment, policy uncertainty, deteriorating security, and a lack of much needed energy pricing reform that will impact the long-term production and export capacity of various MENA oil and gas producers, including some of those unaffected directly by the Arab Spring and sanctions.