Suchergebnisse

Through the prism of principal rivalries, this article analyzes the barriers to and opportunities for an Israel-Syria agreement and requirements for an Israel-Syria peace treaty. Empirical work on rivalries focuses mainly on origins, characteristics, and capabilities, with little investigation of principal rivalry termination, the role of peace agreements in interrupting rivalries, or the particular challenges confronting intermediaries in intensely competitive and hostile conflicts. Ending rivalries requires sustained engagement and flexible intervenors. Current proposals for multiphased peacekeeping and verification arrangements fall short. A hybrid peacekeeping model, advanced to address this deficiency, accounts for a rapidly changing military environment, maximizes confidence-building momentum, provides redundancy, attracts U.S. support and participation, and generates regional support for the peace process. By participating in a hybrid regime on the Golan Heights, the United States can conserve resources, limit obligations, minimize risks, maximize flexibility, maintain domestic support, attract support from other third parties, and support peace.

Examines components of a prospective peace treaty and implementation of security arrangements; presents a peacekeeping model that provides for a rapidly changing military environment, maximizes confidence-building, and attracts US and regional support.

This article integrates the context and process of mediation in an exploration of the ways in which third parties may alter the parameters of a dispute in order to manage conflict. It does so through a focus on the role that mediation may play in fostering new norms of conflict management. Adopting an evolutionary approach to the development of norms in conflict systems, the study examines the strategies that may be employed by mediators to bring about normative change. A case study of the mediation activities of US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the Middle East during the period 1973-76 confirms that Kissinger's mediation effort did foster conditions necessary for the creation of new norms. The case also confirms the presence of a number of discrete elements associated with the development of a new normative order to restrain conflict. These findings are important insofar as they suggest that Kissinger's contribution to the Arab-Israeli peace process was more than a short-term, tactical success. Indeed, the analysis suggests that mediation may accomplish more than a reordering of the preference structure of disputants. It may well promote and embed within a conflict system new kinds of behaviour that are not realized for a number of years but whose importance and potential extend well beyond the more limited success of the moment. This suggests, in turn, that we may have to reconceptualize our criteria for what constitutes success in international mediation and pay greater attention to the ways in which mediation can foster change in regional conflict systems.