Suchergebnisse

Both true experiments and regression discontinuity (RD) designs produce unbiased estimates of effects. However, true experiments are, of course, often criticized on equity grounds, whereas RD designs entail sacrifices in terms of statistical precision. In this article, a hybrid of true experiments and RD designs is considered. This hybrid entails smaller sacrifices in statistical efficiency than RD designs and also is likely to be judged as being considerably more fair than true experiments and possible even RD designs. Moreover, unlike pure RD designs, the hybrid design considered here can be employed in situations in which the variable on which assignment to treatment condition is based takes on only a discrete set of values.

An important contribution of evaluation research is information regarding the extent to which the effect of an intervention is mediated by characteristics of the unit in which it is introduced and/or variations in the way the intervention is implemented in different units. It is shown in this article that by extending the type of model specified by Berk and his associates (1979), this type of information can be obtained from pooled cross-sectional and time series designs. However, the conventional estimation procedure for pooled cross-sectional and time series data, such as that embedded in PROC TSCSREG in SAS, is not appropriate for this purpose because it produces inefficient estimates of the coefficients which are of central interest in this type of problem, that is, those coefficients that characterize the effect of the intervention and the extent to which it is mediated by characteristics of the unit in which it is introduced and/or variations in the way the intervention is implemented. Two alternative estimation procedures are developed that result in efficient estimates of the coefficients that are of central interest in this type of problem.

Progress in understanding the utilization of policy information in decision making can be accelerated by reliance on a variety of research approaches. One research approach that has not been widely employed to date in studies of information utilization is simulation modeling. In this article simulation modeling and its potential contributions to the study of the utilization of policy information in decision making are explored, along with the relationship between simulation modeling and other approaches to studying knowledge utilization.

Although overlooked to date, computer simulation represents a potentially fruitful research approach for contributing to our understanding of the effectiveness of strategies for increasing the use of policy analysis. In this article an initial step is taken toward tapping this potential. Specifically, the "garbage-can" model of decision making developed by Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) is modified so that it reflects a possible contribution of policy analysis to decision making. This model is then used to obtain insights concerning the impacts of one category of strategies for increasing the use of policy analysis, namely, those concerned with dissemination, on organizational decision making. While insights concerning the impacts of dissemination strategies on organizational decision making are certainly important in their own right, a more general purpose of this article is to demonstrate the role that simulation models can play in developing knowledge concerning the effectiveness of strategies for increasing the use of policy analysis .

The absence of a means for obtaining confidence intervals for the impact of an intervention represents a serious gap in the literature on the analysis of interrupted time-series designs. In this article, an approximate procedure for constructing such confidence intervals is developed both in general terms and for two specific forms of intervention effects—abrupt temporary effects and gradual permanent effects. The adequacy of the procedure is examined using Monte Carlo simulation. An illustration of the procedure using a real data set is presented.

Regionalization ofperinatal care is widely assumed to be an effective means of improving pregnancy outcomes. However, due to limitations of the research designs employed in previous studies aimed at empirically confirming this conventional wisdom, strong evidence concerning the impact of regionalization on pregnancy outcomes is still lacking. In this article an interrupted time-series design is used to assess the impact of regionalization of perinatal care on infant and early neonatal mortality in Central New York. The analysis indicates that regionalization has had a statistically significant, grad ual permanent impact on both infant and early neonatal mortality.

User involvement in the design and selection of evaluation studies is a widely advocated strategy for increasing their use. In this paper a particular structure (the "user-oriented framework") for guiding such involvement is described . In addition, some tentative propositions are offered concerning the viability of this framework (and, more generally, user involvement in study design and selection). Finally, other strategies are identified that might be employed in conjunction with the user-oriented framework in order to increase its viability in certain contexts

AbstractIn nearly all Asian countries services available to rural populations are inadequate and inappropriate. Improvement is crucial not only to fulfilling basic human needs, but for raising productivity and generating more broadly based economic development. This article reviews the types of obstacles in the way of improving service delivery, and assesses the strengths and weaknesses of the major institutional arrangements for delivering services. In the light of this review the article identifies four issues of major importance, first, the priority to be given to providing social and productive services; second, the most appropriate approach to delivering social and productive services; third, how to finance social services more effectively; and finally what alternative means there are of improving the administration of services. This article follows on from Part I which presented a comparative review of service needs in Asian countries.

AbstractQuestions concerning the distribution of income and wealth, and access to services have attracted increased attention during the 1970s to complement the earlier emphasis on the promotion of macro‐economic development. This article provides a comparative review of service needs in Asia. It presents an inventory of the types of services provided by, or through, government, and assesses their adequacy for rural development. It explores problems with mobilizing resources and delivering services, and it identifies arrangements that appear most effective. The article emphasizes the problem of extending the coverage, and increasing the quality, of social and productive support services for vast rural populations and it stresses that more appropriate ways must be found of delivering services that are needed. A second article, to appear in the next number of Public Administration and Development, reviews ways of improving the capacity of governments and local communities to provide services needed by rural populations.