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In a recent interview, Pope Francis took stock of the war in Ukraine. "The strongest one is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag, and negotiates," the pope told Swiss media. The comment led to derision from Ukraine and its Western supporters, who saw in the pontiff's message a call to capitulate. (We'll leave aside the fact that, behind closed doors, some European diplomats are reportedly warming to the idea of a negotiated end to the war.)Pope Francis offered an easy target for criticism by referring to a white flag, the traditional symbol of surrender. But one of his key messages actually was, "Don't be ashamed to negotiate before things get worse." Pope Francis has often referred to the Ukrainian people as martyrs in this war; suggestions that his words are a gift to Putin are misguided and confuse his anti-war instincts for support of Russia's war effort.Pope Francis noted that "the word negotiate is a courageous word." Pierre Hazan, a senior adviser with the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and author of a new book on conflict mediation, would probably agree. Hazan cut his teeth as a journalist covering the Bosnia War and other conflicts before putting down the pen to take an active role in armed conflict negotiations. One of these was the peace process in the Basque Country that led the terrorist group Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) to lay down its arms. In "Negotiating with the Devil: Inside the World of Armed Conflict Mediation," the Swiss mediator mounts a strong defense of the importance of negotiation in the middle of a conflict.Before extolling the virtues of talks, Hazan acknowledges the potential pitfalls. Among other things, negotiations risk being manipulated by one of the parties. The author provides the example of the Munich Conference in 1938, which became the antechamber of Adolf Hitler's march on the European continent. There is also the possibility that talks become a smokescreen for violence. Hazan mentions here the Norwegian-led mediation between the Sri Lanka government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a group of ruthless insurgents fighting for a Tamil state. When the Sri Lankan government wiped out the LTTE in a final offensive in 2009, it also killed around 40,000 civilians in the process. On rare occasions, the problem is not that negotiations end up facilitating carnage but that there is simply no partner willing to talk. That is the case of ISIS or the extinct Shining Path in Peru, explains the Swiss mediator.These difficulties notwithstanding, for Hazan, the key question remains whether "negotiating with war criminals—including the worst of them—might save lives." To this, he replies that "with very few exceptions, the answer is yes, of course." Those who mediate in armed conflicts are forced to consider possibilities that are far removed from ideals of justice in the search for the least bad option, argues Hazan. This became more complicated after the 9/11 attacks, when President Bush declared a "War on Terror," and the room for negotiations with warring states, rebel groups, or terrorist organizations narrowed down dramatically. In this new context, remarks Hazan, "mediation, previously lauded, was pushed aside in favour of military solutions."If total victory over terrorists and rogue states was, as Bush suggested, both just and within reach, then there was little need for negotiation in this new world. If the goal was to export democracy and eliminate terrorism once and for all, Bush failed spectacularly on both accounts. By then, however, the world had already been defined in good-versus-evil terms. Thus, to conduct badly needed talks with the evil side of this simplistic equation (be it Iran, North Korea, or the Taliban) would have been seen as treason to our highest ideals. The U.S., with European countries often following suit, promoted a new paradigm according to which mediation was "perceived as an admission of weakness," writes Hazan.These dynamics can be observed in the case of former United Nations diplomat Álvaro de Soto, who resigned his position as envoy for the Middle East Peace Process in May 2007. After Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian elections, the international community halted direct funding to the Palestinian Authority. The rationale was that this would apply pressure on Hamas to recognize the state of Israel and renounce violence. The consequence was not a moderation in Hamas' positions but a steep increase in poverty among Palestinians and a deterioration of public services.De Soto opposed the aid blockade on Palestinians but had little room to maneuver, as the Peruvian diplomat himself explained in a secret report written before handing in his resignation. In the (subsequently leaked) report, de Soto argued U.S. pressure had "pummelled into submission" the U.N.'s role as a neutral mediator in the Middle East. As Hazan explains, one of the biggest obstacles for de Soto was that his superiors forbade him to continue talks with Hamas or the Syrian government.Hazan added a preface to the original French edition of his book to cover the events that followed Hamas' attack against Israel on October 7, when the militant group killed 1,200 people and took 240 hostages. Since then, Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip has resulted in the death of at least 31,000 people. Hazan reflects on the Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Gaza that lasted for a week at the end of November 2023. The ceasefire, the author argues, was a historical development for at least two reasons. First, it was probably an unprecedented agreement, as hostages were directly exchanged for ceasefire days. And second, Qatar's role exemplified "the end of Western hegemony over the international system."Whether Western hegemony will be followed by something better is up for debate. However, when Hazan points to Turkey's role in the mediation of the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, or to China's diplomatic efforts leading to the resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it is easy to recognize a pattern towards a broader plurality in the mediation scene.Hazan offered an interview last month discussing the latest developments in the Ukraine war, which are not included in the book. Hazan explained that he sees two main scenarios for a mediated solution in Ukraine. In the first one, a precarious calm would prevail and there would be a limited ceasefire with Russia and Ukraine technically at war for the foreseeable future. In the second one, what he calls the "Korean model," there would be a demilitarized zone between the two sides with Ukraine obtaining security guarantees and NATO/European Union membership. A more robust mediation process and peace agreement will only happen "if the military or the political situation changes radically either way," he argued.Based on his long-time experience, Hazan notes that "peace is a messy, chaotic business, as is the road that leads to it." There is no sense in negotiating only for negotiations' sake, and mediation is fraught with dangers.Yet experts should not be swayed by the supposed moral certitude of refusing to come to the table. Outright negation of the possibility of talks carries the risk of missing opportunities to settle for the lesser evil even as the greater good fades into the distance.

MUNICH, GERMANY – The Munich Security Conference came to an end today but not before EU leaders warned that international "winds" might be blowing against the West on the issue of Israel's war in GazaWhile the international meeting this weekend entertained manifold topics — from the role of the Global South to the importance of AI and food security — the Ukraine war dominated the conference, with Gaza coming in second at a considerable distance. But the focus on Israel's military operations grew more intense as the confab drew to a close, between yesterday afternoon and Sunday morning. In the press center, for example, the current situation in Gaza vied for attention with the death of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's speech on Saturday.Indeed, Rafah was an often-repeated word Sunday in the Bavarian capital. The day before in a televised news conference, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that "total victory" against Hamas would require an offensive against Rafah once people living there evacuate to safe areas. It is difficult to see how the concept of a "safe area" can apply to any place in the Gaza Strip today. At least 28,985 people have been killed and 68,883 injured (mostly civilians) in the Gaza Strip since October 7, when 1,200 Israelis were killed and over 250 hostages taken during a Hamas attack against Israel. In a side event Sunday organized by the Consulate General of Israel in Munich, the press was shown a video, about 10 minutes long, documenting Hamas atrocities on October 7.According to the United Nations, over 75% of the Gazan population has been displaced, many multiple times. There is also a severe lack of food, medicine, and other essential items because of Israel's decision to let only a trickle of the aid trucks into Gaza needed to maintain basic conditions of life. Addressing the audience in Munich, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated that peace in the Middle East requires "a prospect for the Palestinian people" and that "the security of Israel will not be ensured just by military means." In a reference to the war in Gaza, he noted that "Russia is taking good advantage of our mistakes. The blame about double standards is something that we need to address and not only with nice words. It is clear that the wind is blowing against the West." Borrell appears to share a worry openly expressed by some of the European leaders — such as Spanish president Pedro Sánchez and Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar — who have been even more critical of Israel. The concern is that Europe's failure to rein in Israel will undermine global support for Ukraine and discredit the European discourse on the importance of international law.Borrell, in sharp contrast with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, has represented the most vocal position within the EU on the growing death toll and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza after October 7. Earlier this week, the EU top diplomat replied to Biden's recent description of Israel's military conduct in Gaza as being "over the top." Borrell noted that "if you believe that too many people are being killed, maybe you should provide less arms in order to prevent so many people being killed." Borrell has long supported a ceasefire but any EU decision on the matter requires unanimity, and countries like Germany, Austria, and Hungary are not on board.American ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said yesterday that the U.S. will veto an Algerian proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to be taken up at the UN Security Council on Tuesday. According to Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. is working hard for "a sustainable resolution of the Gaza conflict," and the Algerian resolution would endanger this. In an oft-repeated dynamic over the last months, the U.S. is basically asking the international community to trust that Washington's diplomatic pressure will force Netanyahu to change course. Such an approach has failed once and again, and there is no clear reason to believe this time will be different. Yesterday afternoon, Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani noted that the efforts to reach an agreement between Israel and Hamas have been dominated by a pattern that "is not really very promising."Part of the U.S. approach to the current conflict has also been to demand that the Palestinian Authority (PA) reforms itself. Washington hopes the PA can govern the Gaza Strip after the war ends, but Netanyahu has been adamant it does not envisage any role for the PA in the Gaza Strip in the future. The Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh was in Munich on Sunday, remarking in an interview that the PA — which has grown even more unpopular in the West Bank after October 7 — is already working on introducing reforms. Shtayyeh said that the recent insistence on the topic only seeks to divert attention from the Israeli military operation in Gaza, however. In his view, Netanyahu's interest today is "to keep the war going" and argued that "Netanyahu's war is going to continue until the end of the year." The Palestinian leader was supposed to be present at a press briefing around midday, but the event was canceled on short notice due to "scheduling reasons." In a panel with his Spanish and Canadian counterparts, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi was one of the last Arab leaders to speak in Munich. He used the opportunity to note that "Israel cannot have security unless Palestinians have security."This afternoon, the Munich city center was returning to its normal state after an intense weekend of both open and closed-door meetings featuring top leaders from Europe and beyond. As security barriers were being removed and the 5,000 police officers deployed for the event, many of them from other parts of Germany, returned home, it wasn't hard to note that beyond all the talk, the world's thorniest problems, including two major conflicts, are left unresolved.

MUNICH, GERMANY — If U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris dominated the first day of the Munich Security Conference with her remarks, today it was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's turn.It was not only Zelensky who understandably devoted his whole speech to the Ukraine War but also Scholz, too. The German Chancellor, while boasting that his country will devote 2% of its GDP to defense expenditures this year, remarked that "we Europeans need to do much more for our security now and in the future."In a brief but clear reference to Trump's recent statements on NATO, Scholz said, "any relativization of NATO's mutual defense guarantee will only benefit those who, just like Putin, want to weaken us." On the guns and butter debate, which is particularly relevant in Germany due to negligible economic growth, Scholz acknowledged that critical voices are saying, "should not we be using the money for other things?" But he chose not to engage in this debate, noting instead that "Moscow is fanning the flames of such doubts with targeted disinformation campaigns and with propaganda on social media."Scholz was followed on the podium by Zelensky. They had already met on Friday, when the Ukrainian president signed separate security agreements with the French and German governments. The immediate context, however, was shaped by the news that Ukraine had ordered the complete withdrawal from the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine before dawn on Saturday. The Russian capture of the city represents the most significant defeat for Ukraine since the failure of its counter-offensive last year. On the loss of Avdiivka, Zelensky said that Ukraine had lost one soldier for every seven soldiers who have died on the Russian side. This, however, is difficult to reconcile with the reports about the rushed Ukrainian retreat, with a Ukrainian soldier explaining that "the road to Avdiivka is littered with our corpses." Throughout his speech, Zelensky repeatedly referred to the importance of defending what he called the "rules-based world order" by defeating Russia. If there was one take-away that Zelensky wanted impressed on this audience: "Please do not ask Ukraine when the war will end. Ask yourself why is Putin still able to continue it."He also seemed to suggest that it was not a lack of available weapons and artillery but a willingness to give them over to Ukraine. "Dear friends, unfortunately keeping Ukraine in the artificial deficit of weapons, particularly in deficit of artillery and long-range capabilities, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war," Zelenskyy said. "The self-weakening of democracy over time undermines our joint results."The future of NATO was one of the main topics of the day. European leaders were in agreement that Europe needs to spend more on defense, and occasionally appeared to compete with each other on who has spent the most on weapons delivered to Ukraine or in their national defense budgets. With NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in attendance, one of the panels featured two of the most talked-about names to replace the Norwegian politician in the 75th-anniversary summit in Washington in July: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and caretaker Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. According to a report by the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, President Joseph Biden and his Secretary of State Anthony Blinken favor the German leader, but in Paris, London, and Berlin, the Dutch politician is preferred. The participation of the Netherlands in the initial U.S.-UK joint strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen on Jan. 11 was read in some quarters as a sign of Rutte's ambitions. The Netherlands was the only EU country to join these initial attacks.A G7 meeting of foreign ministers also took place Saturday on the sidelines of the conference. In a press briefing that followed, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani — who currently presides the G7 — reiterated the group's support for Ukraine. The current situation in the Red Sea, as is often the case in the West, was presented by Tajani as a topic divorced from the Gaza Strip. The Houthis started their campaign against ships in the Red Sea after the beginning of the war in Gaza, claiming they want to force an end to the conflict. There is no certainty that the end of the war in Gaza would put an end to Houthi attacks, but presenting the situation in the Red Sea as being nothing but a threat to freedom of trade is considered by experts to be a a myopic approach. Nevertheless, Italy will be in command of the new EU naval mission ASPIDES, to be deployed soon in the Red Sea. The mission is expected to be approved by the next meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers on Monday. When asked whether he could ensure that ASPIDES would remain a defensive mission, the Italian Foreign Minister said ASPIDES aims at defending merchant ships and that if drones or missiles are launched, they will be shot down, but no attacks will be conducted.Marc Martorell Junyent is in Munich, covering the conference for Responsible Statecraft this weekend. This story is developing and is being updated.

MUNICH, GERMANY – The 60th year of the Munich Security Conference opened today with much of the early energy surrounding remarks by Vice President Kamala Harris. The vice president noted that it was nearly two years since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. She said that when Putin unleashed his troops along different fronts in February 2022, "many thought Kyiv would fall within a day." It is also true, as she pointed out, that "Ukraine has regained more than half the territory Russia occupied at the start of the conflict." (Russia held about 7% before the invasion, 27% right after, and about 18% today.)However, by choosing the first months of the war as the starting point of her speech, Harris sought to avoid the obvious. Namely, that in the year that has gone by since her last visit to Munich, the Ukrainian army has been losing ground. Yet, her remarks regarding Ukraine today did not differ much from her speech in 2023. Harris seemed dedicated to keeping to the administration's recent script, which is warning against heralding in a new era of "isolationism," referring to President Biden's likely presidential election opponent, Donald Trump.As president Biden and I have made clear over the past three years, we are committed to pursue global engagement, to uphold international rules and norms, to defend democratic values at home and abroad, and to work with our allies and partners in pursuit of shared goals.As I travel throughout my country and the world, it is clear to me: this approach makes America strong. And it keeps Americans safe.Interestingly, the U.S. has been accused of thwarting "international rules and norms" in its unconditional support of Israel's war on Gaza, which has killed upwards of 29,000 Palestinians, mostly of them civilians, since Hamas's Oct. 7 invasion of Israel and hostage-taking. Christoph Heusgen, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, asked Harris whether a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine was achievable. Harris answered that "the short answer is yes… but we must then put the discussion in context, starting with October 7." Not 1948, not 1967, but October 7, 2023.Her prepared remarks on the situation were very brief, overall, saying:In the Middle East, we are working to end the conflict that Hamas triggered on October 7th as soon as possible and ensure it ends in a way where Israel is secure, hostages are released, the humanitarian crisis is resolved, Hamas does not control Gaza, and Palestinians can enjoy their right to security, dignity, freedom, and self-determination.This work — while we also work to counter aggression from Iran and its proxies, prevent regional escalation, and promote regional integration.October 7 was the topic of a conference side event hosted by Brigadier-General Gal Hirsch, Israel's Coordinator for Hostages and Missing. In his opening speech, he called for a Global War on Kidnapping inspired by George Bush's War on Terror. Hirsch was short on the specifics, and Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz did not develop the concept further when he followed Hirsch at the podium. During the event, several hostages released during the short ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in November 2023 described their harrowing experiences in captivity. Relatives of the remaining hostages accompanied them.Meanwhile, in a morning event, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis discussed how to increase defense spending in a time of economic stagnation. Mitsotakis, whose country has always spent significantly more than the expected 2% of the GDP required by NATO, stated that defense policy cannot be done on a budget. Lindner, meanwhile, remarked that Germany is on the way to spending 2% of its GDP on defense. Economic prosperity, the German Liberal minister noted, should avoid tradeoffs between social and defense policies. This is certainly a difficult equation to square since the German government just announced it was reviewing its forecast for GDP growth in 2024 from 1.3% down to 0.2%.Marc Martorell Junyent is in Munich, covering the conference for Responsible Statecraft this weekend. This story is developing.