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International audience ; The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, it aims at proposing a Post-Keynesian interpretation of hyperinflation. The theoretical building includes elements suggested by Post-Keynesians as well as by structuralists. The accent is put on the role played by a foreign currency in domestic comportments during high inflation periods. Besides, a definition of hyperinflation is suggested: hyperinflation could be seen as a substitution by a foreign currency of a domestic currency. This substitution, violent in its final step, is built gradually. Hyperinflation is caused by a violent distributive conflict which generates a strong inflation, by indexation, by an external indebtedness denominated in a foreign currency and by self-fulfilling prophecies. Secondly, this theoretical framework is confronted to economic facts observed in Argentina from the 1970's to the 1989 hyper-inflationist spurt. The historical political economy analysis allows the spotting of the following sequence: the distributive conflict is highly violent, reshaped several times from the 1970's onwards. It provokes the development of institutional arrangements (indexation), while the dollar becomes more and more important within the economy. This phenomenon is encouraged by the implementation of an original exchange rate regime at the end of the 1970's, in a context of liberalization of the economy. The impossibility to stabilize the exchange rate during the 1980's in a context of external indebtedness makes possible the arising of hyperinflation. It is finally activated by speculation on the exchange rate level and a run on the foreign reserves.

International audience ; The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, it aims at proposing a Post-Keynesian interpretation of hyperinflation. The theoretical building includes elements suggested by Post-Keynesians as well as by structuralists. The accent is put on the role played by a foreign currency in domestic comportments during high inflation periods. Besides, a definition of hyperinflation is suggested: hyperinflation could be seen as a substitution by a foreign currency of a domestic currency. This substitution, violent in its final step, is built gradually. Hyperinflation is caused by a violent distributive conflict which generates a strong inflation, by indexation, by an external indebtedness denominated in a foreign currency and by self-fulfilling prophecies. Secondly, this theoretical framework is confronted to economic facts observed in Argentina from the 1970's to the 1989 hyper-inflationist spurt. The historical political economy analysis allows the spotting of the following sequence: the distributive conflict is highly violent, reshaped several times from the 1970's onwards. It provokes the development of institutional arrangements (indexation), while the dollar becomes more and more important within the economy. This phenomenon is encouraged by the implementation of an original exchange rate regime at the end of the 1970's, in a context of liberalization of the economy. The impossibility to stabilize the exchange rate during the 1980's in a context of external indebtedness makes possible the arising of hyperinflation. It is finally activated by speculation on the exchange rate level and a run on the foreign reserves.

International audience ; The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, it aims at proposing a Post-Keynesian interpretation of hyperinflation. The theoretical building includes elements suggested by Post-Keynesians as well as by structuralists. The accent is put on the role played by a foreign currency in domestic comportments during high inflation periods. Besides, a definition of hyperinflation is suggested: hyperinflation could be seen as a substitution by a foreign currency of a domestic currency. This substitution, violent in its final step, is built gradually. Hyperinflation is caused by a violent distributive conflict which generates a strong inflation, by indexation, by an external indebtedness denominated in a foreign currency and by self-fulfilling prophecies. Secondly, this theoretical framework is confronted to economic facts observed in Argentina from the 1970's to the 1989 hyper-inflationist spurt. The historical political economy analysis allows the spotting of the following sequence: the distributive conflict is highly violent, reshaped several times from the 1970's onwards. It provokes the development of institutional arrangements (indexation), while the dollar becomes more and more important within the economy. This phenomenon is encouraged by the implementation of an original exchange rate regime at the end of the 1970's, in a context of liberalization of the economy. The impossibility to stabilize the exchange rate during the 1980's in a context of external indebtedness makes possible the arising of hyperinflation. It is finally activated by speculation on the exchange rate level and a run on the foreign reserves.

International audience ; La pandémie mondiale provoque une crise économique sans précédent aux conséquences sociales dévastatrices, tout en remettant en perspective la crise écologique. L'imbrication de ces crises impose que l'articulation des politiques macroéconomiques soit revue ; la politique budgétaire doit devenir l'outil privilégié de la politique économique comme le recommandent les post-keynésiens au contraire des tenants du nouveau consensus en macroéconomie. La politique monétaire doit appuyer la politique budgétaire, pendant que des mesures comme la baisse du temps de travail doivent être adoptées. Cette réarticulation de la politique économique est nécessaire afin de limiter les conséquences économiques négatives de la crise de la covid-19, mais aussi à plus long terme pour permettre le plein-emploi, enclencher véritablement la transition écologique et réduire la vulnérabilité des économies aux chocs globaux.

International audience ; La pandémie mondiale provoque une crise économique sans précédent aux conséquences sociales dévastatrices, tout en remettant en perspective la crise écologique. L'imbrication de ces crises impose que l'articulation des politiques macroéconomiques soit revue ; la politique budgétaire doit devenir l'outil privilégié de la politique économique comme le recommandent les post-keynésiens au contraire des tenants du nouveau consensus en macroéconomie. La politique monétaire doit appuyer la politique budgétaire, pendant que des mesures comme la baisse du temps de travail doivent être adoptées. Cette réarticulation de la politique économique est nécessaire afin de limiter les conséquences économiques négatives de la crise de la covid-19, mais aussi à plus long terme pour permettre le plein-emploi, enclencher véritablement la transition écologique et réduire la vulnérabilité des économies aux chocs globaux.

We use the Annual Macroeconomic database of the European Commission (AMECO) to confirm that textbook multipliers are nearly always greater than one and that they increase during recessions. Propensity to import falls in recessions through the combined effects of the amplified fall in investment and the high import content of investment. A change in saving behavior may also raise the multiplier. These findings strongly support the need for countercyclical fiscal policies during recessions.

Nowadays, the output gap is a key measure used to guide economic policies that aim at stabilizing activity or at fighting inflation. Within the Eurozone, this measure is institutionalized and mobilized by the European Commission in order to estimate the structural budget balances in European Union member states. How to evaluate an output gap and how to use such an estimation are two important issues. Designating the difference between the actual output and the maximum potential output, the output gap depends on what is meant by « potential output ». Yet, the definition of an unobservable activity level is problematical and economists have developed unclear and/or controversial technics to produce estimations. This paper has two main objectives. The first objective is to show that estimating the output gap can be done in a simpler way as usually performed. The second objective is to recall that the economic policy should aim at guaranteeing full employment. We propose two measures of the output gap ; one is based on the rate of capacity utilization, the other is estimated on the basis of the level of unemployment. ; L'output gap est devenu un concept central dans la définition des politiques économiques visant à soutenir l'activité ou à combattre l'inflation. Dans la zone euro, ce concept est même institutionnalisé puisqu'il est utilisé par la Commission européenne afin de calculer le déficit public structurel des États. La question de la mesure de l'output gap et de son utilisation recouvre des enjeux importants. Désignant l'écart entre le PIB effectif et le PIB potentiel, l'output gap dépend donc de ce qu'on entend par PIB potentiel. Or, la définition de ce niveau théorique d'activité, non observable, est souvent problématique, et les économistes ont construit différentes « usines à gaz » pour le mesurer. Cet article a deux objectifs : montrer que l'estimation de l'output gap peut être plus simple que les évaluations habituellement effectuées ; mais surtout, rappeler que l'objectif de la politique économique devrait être de garantir le plein-emploi. Nous proposons deux indicateurs alternatifs pour estimer un écart de production, l'un basé sur le taux d'utilisation des capacités de production, l'autre sur le taux de chômage.

Nowadays, the output gap is a key measure used to guide economic policies that aim at stabilizing activity or at fighting inflation. Within the Eurozone, this measure is institutionalized and mobilized by the European Commission in order to estimate the structural budget balances in European Union member states. How to evaluate an output gap and how to use such an estimation are two important issues. Designating the difference between the actual output and the maximum potential output, the output gap depends on what is meant by « potential output ». Yet, the definition of an unobservable activity level is problematical and economists have developed unclear and/or controversial technics to produce estimations. This paper has two main objectives. The first objective is to show that estimating the output gap can be done in a simpler way as usually performed. The second objective is to recall that the economic policy should aim at guaranteeing full employment. We propose two measures of the output gap ; one is based on the rate of capacity utilization, the other is estimated on the basis of the level of unemployment. ; L'output gap est devenu un concept central dans la définition des politiques économiques visant à soutenir l'activité ou à combattre l'inflation. Dans la zone euro, ce concept est même institutionnalisé puisqu'il est utilisé par la Commission européenne afin de calculer le déficit public structurel des États. La question de la mesure de l'output gap et de son utilisation recouvre des enjeux importants. Désignant l'écart entre le PIB effectif et le PIB potentiel, l'output gap dépend donc de ce qu'on entend par PIB potentiel. Or, la définition de ce niveau théorique d'activité, non observable, est souvent problématique, et les économistes ont construit différentes « usines à gaz » pour le mesurer. Cet article a deux objectifs : montrer que l'estimation de l'output gap peut être plus simple que les évaluations habituellement effectuées ; mais surtout, rappeler que l'objectif de la politique économique devrait être de garantir le plein-emploi. Nous proposons deux indicateurs alternatifs pour estimer un écart de production, l'un basé sur le taux d'utilisation des capacités de production, l'autre sur le taux de chômage.

Nowadays, the output gap is a key measure used to guide economic policies that aim at stabilizing activity or at fighting inflation. Within the Eurozone, this measure is institutionalized and mobilized by the European Commission in order to estimate the structural budget balances in European Union member states. How to evaluate an output gap and how to use such an estimation are two important issues. Designating the difference between the actual output and the maximum potential output, the output gap depends on what is meant by « potential output ». Yet, the definition of an unobservable activity level is problematical and economists have developed unclear and/or controversial technics to produce estimations. This paper has two main objectives. The first objective is to show that estimating the output gap can be done in a simpler way as usually performed. The second objective is to recall that the economic policy should aim at guaranteeing full employment. We propose two measures of the output gap ; one is based on the rate of capacity utilization, the other is estimated on the basis of the level of unemployment. ; L'output gap est devenu un concept central dans la définition des politiques économiques visant à soutenir l'activité ou à combattre l'inflation. Dans la zone euro, ce concept est même institutionnalisé puisqu'il est utilisé par la Commission européenne afin de calculer le déficit public structurel des États. La question de la mesure de l'output gap et de son utilisation recouvre des enjeux importants. Désignant l'écart entre le PIB effectif et le PIB potentiel, l'output gap dépend donc de ce qu'on entend par PIB potentiel. Or, la définition de ce niveau théorique d'activité, non observable, est souvent problématique, et les économistes ont construit différentes « usines à gaz » pour le mesurer. Cet article a deux objectifs : montrer que l'estimation de l'output gap peut être plus simple que les évaluations habituellement effectuées ; mais surtout, rappeler que l'objectif de la politique économique devrait être de garantir le plein-emploi. Nous proposons deux indicateurs alternatifs pour estimer un écart de production, l'un basé sur le taux d'utilisation des capacités de production, l'autre sur le taux de chômage.

Nowadays, the output gap is a key measure used to guide economic policies that aim at stabilizing activity or at fighting inflation. Within the Eurozone, this measure is institutionalized and mobilized by the European Commission in order to estimate the structural budget balances in European Union member states. How to evaluate an output gap and how to use such an estimation are two important issues. Designating the difference between the actual output and the maximum potential output, the output gap depends on what is meant by « potential output ». Yet, the definition of an unobservable activity level is problematical and economists have developed unclear and/or controversial technics to produce estimations. This paper has two main objectives. The first objective is to show that estimating the output gap can be done in a simpler way as usually performed. The second objective is to recall that the economic policy should aim at guaranteeing full employment. We propose two measures of the output gap ; one is based on the rate of capacity utilization, the other is estimated on the basis of the level of unemployment. ; L'output gap est devenu un concept central dans la définition des politiques économiques visant à soutenir l'activité ou à combattre l'inflation. Dans la zone euro, ce concept est même institutionnalisé puisqu'il est utilisé par la Commission européenne afin de calculer le déficit public structurel des États. La question de la mesure de l'output gap et de son utilisation recouvre des enjeux importants. Désignant l'écart entre le PIB effectif et le PIB potentiel, l'output gap dépend donc de ce qu'on entend par PIB potentiel. Or, la définition de ce niveau théorique d'activité, non observable, est souvent problématique, et les économistes ont construit différentes « usines à gaz » pour le mesurer. Cet article a deux objectifs : montrer que l'estimation de l'output gap peut être plus simple que les évaluations habituellement effectuées ; mais surtout, rappeler que l'objectif de la politique économique ...

Nowadays, the output gap is a key measure used to guide economic policies that aim at stabilizing activity or at fighting inflation. Within the Eurozone, this measure is institutionalized and mobilized by the European Commission in order to estimate the structural budget balances in European Union member states. How to evaluate an output gap and how to use such an estimation are two important issues. Designating the difference between the actual output and the maximum potential output, the output gap depends on what is meant by « potential output ». Yet, the definition of an unobservable activity level is problematical and economists have developed unclear and/or controversial technics to produce estimations. This paper has two main objectives. The first objective is to show that estimating the output gap can be done in a simpler way as usually performed. The second objective is to recall that the economic policy should aim at guaranteeing full employment. We propose two measures of the output gap ; one is based on the rate of capacity utilization, the other is estimated on the basis of the level of unemployment. ; L'output gap est devenu un concept central dans la définition des politiques économiques visant à soutenir l'activité ou à combattre l'inflation. Dans la zone euro, ce concept est même institutionnalisé puisqu'il est utilisé par la Commission européenne afin de calculer le déficit public structurel des États. La question de la mesure de l'output gap et de son utilisation recouvre des enjeux importants. Désignant l'écart entre le PIB effectif et le PIB potentiel, l'output gap dépend donc de ce qu'on entend par PIB potentiel. Or, la définition de ce niveau théorique d'activité, non observable, est souvent problématique, et les économistes ont construit différentes « usines à gaz » pour le mesurer. Cet article a deux objectifs : montrer que l'estimation de l'output gap peut être plus simple que les évaluations habituellement effectuées ; mais surtout, rappeler que l'objectif de la politique économique ...