Suchergebnisse

The MENARA study area has undergone signifi cant transformation over twenty years decades, resulting from a combination of ideational and material factors. In this report, we examine the agnitude, distribution and trends in key environmental and energy factors that materially affect the economic, social and political profi le of the MENA region. We do this by conducting a geographical analysis and by building a web-based policy support system for understanding strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) at scales from pixel through regional to national considering environment, water, energy, food, economy and population, which we call the MENARA policy support system (PSS). It is a tool for scanning the horizon to identify material threats, opportunities and choke points that may precipitate confl ict, and it is designed to help thinking through locally appropriate policy responses. The MENARA PSS enables better understanding of material factors (climate, population, landscape, energy), which combine with elements of governance, politics and ideology to shape regions and determine trajectories of change at scales from local to global. We use the tool, combined with literature review and other available data, in order to examine strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats throughout the Middle East and North Africa (the MENARA study area) and in greater spatial detail for the country of Syria. Analyses indicate a complex pattern of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that produce challenges at the local scale, at the regional scale and, for some countries, also at the national scale. No one strength, weakness, opportunity or threat dominates, as different regions within each country have different SWOTs and different countries are affected by different magnitudes and types of SWOT. Understanding material factors and using them to generate a geographical prognosis at multiple scales for a region enables us to set the context for later ideational research in this region as part of the ...

The Middle East and North Africa is one of the world's most rapidly transforming regions, politically, economically, demographically and environmentally. Despite largely declining total fertility rates, the momentum of absolute population growth will mean that the region surpasses China in terms of total population by 2090. Land degradation, water stress and trends of urbanisation will also have significant impacts upon the future development of this region. In contending with the coming social, ecological and climatic shifts facing the region, policymakers will need to effectively capture the multi-faceted dynamics of these challenges but also opportunities. This paper outlines the key demographic and economic trends and transitions underway across MENA countries as material factors informing the efficacy of future policy responses to these emergent trends. Demographic trends in age-specific and gender ratios are discussed, before exploring transitions in fertility rates, migration, conflict, social welfare and urbanisation along with the possible implications of such transitions. Later, key economic factors are assessed, including correlations between resources endowments, labour market performance (particularly rates of youth unemployment), public debt and expenditure figures, and trade performance indicators. Considered together, a sub-regional disaggregation of these economic factors is presented, characterising emerging trends and challenges across the region and its broader integration into the global economy.

Cities are dependent on their upstream watersheds for storage and gradual release of water into river systems. These watersheds act as important flood mitigation infrastructure, providing an essential ecosystem service. In this paper we use metrics from the WaterWorld model to examine the flood management-relevant natural infrastructure of the upstream watersheds of selected global cities. These metrics enable the characterisation of different types, magnitudes and geographical distributions of potential natural flood storage. The storages are categorised as either green (forest canopy, wetland and soil) or blue (water body and floodplain) storages and the proportion of green to blue indicates how different city upstream basin contexts provide different types and levels of storage which may buffer flood risk. We apply the WaterWorld method for examining flood risk as the ratio of accumulated modelled annual runoff volume to accumulated available green and blue water storage capacity. The aim of these metrics is to highlight areas where there is more runoff than storage capacity and thus where the maintenance or restoration of further natural infrastructure (such as canopy cover, wetlands and soil) could aid in storing more water and thus better alleviate flood risks. Such information is needed by urban planners, city authorities and governments to help prepare cities for climate change impacts.

International audience ; Millions of small reservoirs built across semi-arid areas present a potential to support agricultural livelihoods of rural smallholders. The scale and geographical dispersion of these multiple lakes restrict the understanding of these coupled human-water systems and the identification of adequate strategies to support riparian farmers. This research developed a multi-scalar interdisciplinary approach to characterise the hydrological and wider drivers of agricultural water use around multiple small reservoirs in semi-arid central Tunisia. The combination of field surveys, quantitative questionnaires and qualitative, semi-structured interviews confirmed minimal withdrawals, but highlighted the diversification of practices, the rise in fruit farming and peripheral benefits generated here by the development of 56 lakes. 48% of lakes provide residual benefits for the occasional watering of on average 300 fruit trees and support to downstream wells exploited for irrigation. A further 13 lakes (23%) provide high levels of benefits (900 fruit trees each), albeit with low equity, supporting essentially established farmers. The analysis of surface water assessments every 8 days from Landsat 5-8 imagery over 1999-2014, provides unprecedented insights into the significant water scarcity and unreliability that impedes agricultural intensification on 86% of small lakes. Limited storage capacities and prolonged droughts highlight the need for small reservoirs in this climatic context to retain a supplementary irrigation objective and not strive to support widespread intensification of irrigated practices. Many farmers lack the capabilities to increase their withdrawals and suffer physical and economic water access difficulties, mismanagement, compounded through limited and short-term government assistance. Individual successes resulted from farmers' economic resilience and means to secure alternate water supplies during dry spells.

International audience ; Millions of small reservoirs built across semi-arid areas present a potential to support agricultural livelihoods of rural smallholders. The scale and geographical dispersion of these multiple lakes restrict the understanding of these coupled human-water systems and the identification of adequate strategies to support riparian farmers. This research developed a multi-scalar interdisciplinary approach to characterise the hydrological and wider drivers of agricultural water use around multiple small reservoirs in semi-arid central Tunisia. The combination of field surveys, quantitative questionnaires and qualitative, semi-structured interviews confirmed minimal withdrawals, but highlighted the diversification of practices, the rise in fruit farming and peripheral benefits generated here by the development of 56 lakes. 48% of lakes provide residual benefits for the occasional watering of on average 300 fruit trees and support to downstream wells exploited for irrigation. A further 13 lakes (23%) provide high levels of benefits (900 fruit trees each), albeit with low equity, supporting essentially established farmers. The analysis of surface water assessments every 8 days from Landsat 5-8 imagery over 1999-2014, provides unprecedented insights into the significant water scarcity and unreliability that impedes agricultural intensification on 86% of small lakes. Limited storage capacities and prolonged droughts highlight the need for small reservoirs in this climatic context to retain a supplementary irrigation objective and not strive to support widespread intensification of irrigated practices. Many farmers lack the capabilities to increase their withdrawals and suffer physical and economic water access difficulties, mismanagement, compounded through limited and short-term government assistance. Individual successes resulted from farmers' economic resilience and means to secure alternate water supplies during dry spells.

International audience ; Millions of small reservoirs built across semi-arid areas present a potential to support agricultural livelihoods of rural smallholders. The scale and geographical dispersion of these multiple lakes restrict the understanding of these coupled human-water systems and the identification of adequate strategies to support riparian farmers. This research developed a multi-scalar interdisciplinary approach to characterise the hydrological and wider drivers of agricultural water use around multiple small reservoirs in semi-arid central Tunisia. The combination of field surveys, quantitative questionnaires and qualitative, semi-structured interviews confirmed minimal withdrawals, but highlighted the diversification of practices, the rise in fruit farming and peripheral benefits generated here by the development of 56 lakes. 48% of lakes provide residual benefits for the occasional watering of on average 300 fruit trees and support to downstream wells exploited for irrigation. A further 13 lakes (23%) provide high levels of benefits (900 fruit trees each), albeit with low equity, supporting essentially established farmers. The analysis of surface water assessments every 8 days from Landsat 5-8 imagery over 1999-2014, provides unprecedented insights into the significant water scarcity and unreliability that impedes agricultural intensification on 86% of small lakes. Limited storage capacities and prolonged droughts highlight the need for small reservoirs in this climatic context to retain a supplementary irrigation objective and not strive to support widespread intensification of irrigated practices. Many farmers lack the capabilities to increase their withdrawals and suffer physical and economic water access difficulties, mismanagement, compounded through limited and short-term government assistance. Individual successes resulted from farmers' economic resilience and means to secure alternate water supplies during dry spells.

Governments are increasingly committing to significant forest restoration. While carbon sequestration is a major objective, the case for restoration often includes benefits to local communities. However, the impacts of forest restoration on local hydrological services (e.g. flood and erosion risk, stream flow during dry periods) are surprisingly poorly understood. Particularly limited information is available on the impacts of passive tropical forest restoration following shifting cultivation. The outcome depends on the trade‐off between the improved soil infiltration capacity (reducing overland flow and increasing soil and groundwater recharge) and greater evapotranspiration (diminishing local water availability). Using measurements from highly instrumented plots under three vegetation types in the shifting cultivation cycle in Madagascar's eastern rainforests (forest, tree fallow and degraded abandoned agricultural land), and infiltration measurements for the same vegetation types across the landscape, we explore the impacts of forest regeneration on the ecohydrological processes that underpin locally important ecosystem services. Overland flow was minimal for the tree fallow (similar to the forest) and much lower than for the degraded land, likely leading to a lower risk of erosion and flooding compared to the degraded land. Conversely, evapotranspiration losses were lower for the tree fallow than the forest, leading to a higher net recharge, likely resulting in more streamflow between rainfall events. These results demonstrate that young regenerating tropical forest vegetation can positively contribute to locally important hydrological ecosystem services. Allowing tree fallows to recover further is unlikely to further reduce the risk of overland flow but may, at least temporarily, result in less streamflow. Synthesis and applications. Encouraging natural regeneration is increasingly seen as a cost‐effective way to deliver forest landscape restoration. Our data suggest that increasing the abundance of young secondary forest in the tropics, by increasing fallow lengths in the shifting cultivation cycle, could make a positive contribution to locally important hydrological ecosystem services (specifically reducing overland flow and therefore erosion and flooding, while maintaining streamflows). Such empirical understanding is needed to inform the models used for planning forest landscape restoration to maximize benefits to local communities.

Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.

Faced with environmental degradation, governments world-wide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1,675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the supply-side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.

Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.

Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.