Suchergebnisse

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Abstract
The main goal of the research is to consider and compare the importance of fruits and vegetables in external trade in goods of the Republic of Serbia. According to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC), "Vegetables and Fruit" is a division that is dominant in Serbian exports of agricultural and food products, and it is necessary to investigate its competitiveness. The key tools used in the analysis are the coverage of imports by exports, then the Contribution to the Trade Balance (CTB) index, as well as the analysis of unit values of exports and imports, in order to compare and evaluate the structure of external trade in fruits and vegetables. The results show that fruit, according to all indicators, has a significantly higher competitiveness compared to vegetables, as well as a higher importance in external trade of goods. This knowledge can serve the creators of agricultural policy to favour the production and exports of fruit products because they can radically improve the structure of total exports, especially when it comes to processed products. Since this is a perennial plantation, the results cannot be expected in a shorter period of time. The previous research has not specifically considered the importance of this segment of agri-food exports and its internal competitiveness (having in mind the applied indicators), which is the main benefit of the study within this paper.

The aim of the paper is to identify the episodes of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia using the exchange market pressure (EMP) index. The country's resilience to currency crises prevents the collapse of the currency and the transfer of negative effects to the entire financial and real sector, so the research and assessment of the factors of currency crises is extremely important. The survey shows that the strongest strikes on the Serbian dinar were in the period of the global financial crisis in 2008, so that adjusting to shocks from abroad is crucial for the sustainability of the applied managed floating exchange rate regime. On the other hand, the stability of the national currency depends mainly on the achieved macroeconomic results, which are presented globally using the misery index.

Cilj ove studije je prevladati nedostatak empirijskih istraživanja koja se bave glavnim čimbenicima valutnih kriza u Republici Srbiji, analizirajući razdoblja valutne krize i kreirajući sustav ranog upozoravanja kako bi se predvidjele nadolazeće valutne krize. Ovaj rad istražuje odrednice epizoda valutne krize u razdoblju od siječnja 2007. do svibnja 2018.godine koristeći ekonometrijsku analizu i na temelju toga daje prijedloge kreatorima ekonomske politike. Pokazalo se da su dominantni čimbenici oni koji su uglavnom povezani s utjecajem čimbenika iz vanjskog okruženja, što je važno u procjeni i predviđanju potencijalnih kriza u Republici Srbiji. Konkretnije, dobiveni rezultati ukazuju na to da su precijenjenost nacionalne valute, saldo tekućeg računa kao postotak BDP-a, uvoz i burzovni indeks statistički značajne varijable. ; The aim of this study is to overcome the lack of empirical research dealing with the main factors of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia, analyzing periods of currency crises and creating an early warning system to anticipate the upcoming currency crises. Using econometric analysis, this paper examines the determinants of currency crises episodes during the period from January 2007 to May 2018, and based on this, it makes proposals for economic policy makers. It has been shown that dominant factors are those that bind mostly with the effect of factors from the external environment, which is important in assessing and forecasting potential crises in the Republic of Serbia. More specifically, the obtained results indicate that the overvaluation of the national currency, current account balance as a percentage of GDP, imports and stock exchange index are statistically significant variables.

The aim of this study is to examine the influence of trade margins limitations to the prices of basic food products and general price level in the Republic of Serbia. Assessing the effects of the Regulation on the margins limitations from 2012, this paper considers the purpose of applying this instrument of indirect price control. In practice, prescribing a maximum trade margins can have positive effects on the food market stability only in the short term. It is therefore necessary a broader consideration of the factors of pricing on the food market and food inflation regulation by economic policy measures. A particular problem is the low degree of competition in the trade sector, which significantly affects the prices of the final products. Food price movements are very unstable, while their share in the consumer price index in the Republic of Serbia is significantly. It is logical to conclude that food prices have a dominant influence on inflation, so that the government actions in this area are justified.

The permanent existence of inflation in Serbia adversely affects achievement of macroeconomic stability. Its effects are reflected in a decrease in the real exchange rate, low price competitiveness of exports and deterioration in the balance of payments. The real exchange rate is an instrument which shows that in conditions of faster growth rate in a country than abroad, the domestic economy can't be competitive in the international market. Implementation of appropriate exchange rate regime inevitably leads to problems of exchange rate changes on import prices and inflation. The research aims to demonstrate the interdependence of inflation and depreciation, and the fact that the general price level increase is a main factor that hinders the realization of the positive effects of the national currency depreciation. Unstable monetary situation in the country undermines the goal of stimulating exports through an increase in the nominal exchange rate and by reducing export prices in foreign currency. Export becomes uncompetitive, while the depreciation of the national currency is quickly spread to inflation through the exchange rate pass-through.

The aim of the research is to classify the European Union (EU) countries based on the progress in the economic performance of agriculture. The originality of the paper stems from the fact that a new set of indicators (in relative form) was used to identify the clusters. The following indicators are used to assess the economic performance of the EU agricultural sector (by cluster analysis) for two periods (2015–2017 and 2018–2020): total labor force input, real income of factors in agriculture per annual work unit, total agricultural output, gross value added of the agricultural industry, and animal output. The study confirmed that EU countries, according to changes in agricultural performance, differ significantly. They were grouped into four relatively homogeneous clusters according to their similarity, with a clear geographical dispersion for both analyzed periods. Identifying development disparities between EU countries can be useful in future redesigns of the Common Agricultural Policy measures in terms of increased support to certain members. ; Celem badań jest klasyfikacja krajów Unii Europejskiej (UE) na podstawie postępu w wynikach ekonomicznych w rolnictwie. Oryginalność artykułu wynika z faktu, że do identyfikacji klastrów zastosowano nowy zestaw wskaźników (w postaci względnej). Do oceny wyników ekonomicznych sektora rolnego UE (poprzez analizę klastrów) dla dwóch okresów (2015–2017 i 2018–2020) stosuje się następujące wskaźniki: całkowity nakład siły roboczej, rzeczywisty dochód czynników w rolnictwie na roczną jednostkę pracy, produkcja rolna ogółem, wartość dodana brutto przemysłu rolnego oraz produkcja zwierzęca. Badanie potwierdziło, że kraje UE znacznie się różnią pod względem zmian wyników rolniczych. Zostały one pogrupowane w cztery stosunkowo jednorodne klastry według podobieństwa, z wyraźnym rozproszeniem geograficznym dla obu analizowanych okresów. Identyfikacja dysproporcji rozwojowych pomiędzy krajami UE może być przydatna w przyszłych przekształceniach środków wspólnej polityki rolnej pod kątem zwiększonego wsparcia dla niektórych członków.

The aim of the research is to examine the degree of competitiveness of the agri-food sector of the Republic of Serbia on the market of the European Union (EU) countries, as the most significant export market. Two partial indices were used in the analysis: the net trade index (NTI) and the Grubel-Lloyd index (GLI). In addition to these indicators, unit export and import price analysis was also used to obtain data on the type of competitiveness achieved by the divisions of the agri-food sector. The results show that the cereals division makes the highest contribution to reducing the existing trade deficit, while the high values of the GLI reflect a high degree of integration with this market. The agri-food sector shows dominant price competitiveness in terms of the share of such divisions in total exports to the EU. The results will include recommendations for improving the structure of exports by focusing on specific divisions.