Suchergebnisse

This paper studies costly political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered in May 1945, 40% of the designated Soviet occupation zone was initially captured by the western Allied Expeditionary Force. This occupation was short-lived: Soviet forces took over after less than two months and installed an authoritarian regime in what became the German Democratic Republic (GDR). We exploit the idiosyncratic line of contact separating Allied and Soviet troops within the GDR to show that areas briefly under Allied occupation had higher incidence of protests during the only major episode of political unrest in the GDR before its demise in 1989 - the East German Uprising of 1953. These areas also exhibited lower regime support during the last free elections in 1946. We argue that even a "glimpse of freedom" can foster civilian opposition to dictatorship.

AbstractState repression is a prominent feature of nondemocracies, but its effectiveness in quieting dissent and fostering regime survival remains unclear. We exploit the location of military bases before the coup that brought Augusto Pinochet to power in Chile in 1973, which is uncorrelated to precoup electoral outcomes, and show that counties near these bases experienced more killings and forced disappearances at the hands of the government during the dictatorship. Our main result is that residents of counties close to military bases both registered to vote and voted "No" to Pinochet's continuation in power at higher rates in the crucial 1988 plebiscite that bolstered the democratic transition. Potential mechanisms include informational frictions on the intensity of repression in counties far from bases and shifts in preferences caused by increased proximity to the events. Election outcomes after democratization show no lasting change in political preferences.

Las políticas hostiles hacia la educación superior son una característica destacada de los regímenes autoritarios. Estudiamos la captura de la educación superior por la dictadura militar de Augusto Pinochet en Chile después del golpe de 1973. Encontramos tres resultados principales: (i) las cohortes que alcanzaron la edad universitaria poco después del golpe experimentaron una gran caída en la matrícula universitaria como resultado de la reducción sistemática en el número de vacantes para estudiantes entrantes decretada por el régimen; (ii) estas cohortes tuvieron peores resultados económicos a lo largo del ciclo de vida y lucharon por ascender en la escala socioeconómica, especialmente las mujeres; (iii) los niños con padres en las cohortes afectadas también tienen una probabilidad sustancialmente menor de matricularse en la universidad. Estos resultados demuestran que la captura política de la educación superior en las no democracias dificulta la movilidad social y conduce a una reducción persistente en la acumulación de capital humano, incluso después de la democratización. ; Hostile policies towards higher education are a prominent feature of authoritarian regimes. We study the capture of higher education by the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in Chile following the 1973 coup. We find three main results: (i) cohorts that reached college age shortly after the coup experienced a large drop in college enrollment as a result of the systematic reduction in the number of openings for incoming students decreed by the regime; (ii) these cohorts had worse economic outcomes throughout the life cycle and struggled to climb up the socioeconomic ladder, especially women; (iii) children with parents in the affected cohorts also have a substantially lower probability of college enrollment. These results demonstrate that the political capture of higher education in non-democracies hinders social mobility and leads to a persistent reduction in human capital accumulation, even after democratization.

Aprovechando la fuerte caída en la matrícula universitaria que experimentaron las cohortes que alcanzaron la edad universitaria después del golpe militar de 1973 en Chile, se estudio el efecto causal de la educación superior sobre la mortalidad. Utilizando microdatos de las estadísticas vitales para 1994-2017, documentamos un aumento en la tasa de mortalidad anual ajustada por edad entre las cohortes afectadas. Aprovechando el problema de la matrícula universitaria, estimamos un efecto negativo de la universidad sobre la mortalidad, que es mayor para los hombres, pero también considerable para las mujeres. Los resultados intermedios del mercado laboral (por ejemplo, la participación en la fuerza laboral) explican el 30% de la reducción de la mortalidad. También está presente un giro ascendente similar en la mortalidad en múltiples horizontes de tiempo entre los pacientes hospitalizados en las cohortes afectadas, con características observables (es decir, diagnóstico, hospital, seguro) que explican más del 40%. Las respuestas de la encuesta revelan que la universidad mejora sustancialmente el acceso a la atención médica privada, pero tiene efectos mixtos sobre los comportamientos relacionados con la salud. ; We exploit the sharp downward kink in college enrollment experienced by cohorts reaching college age after the 1973 military coup in Chile to study the causal effect of higher education on mortality. Using micro-data from the vital statistics for 1994-2017, we document an upward kink in the age-adjusted yearly mortality rate among the affected cohorts. Leveraging the kink in college enrollment, we estimate a negative effect of college on mortality, which is larger for men, but also sizable for women. Intermediate labor market outcomes (e.g., labor force participation) explain 30% of the reduction in mortality. A similar upward kink in mortality over multiple time horizons is also present among hospitalized patients in the affected cohorts, with observable characteristics (i.e. diagnostic, hospital, insurance) explaining over 40%. Survey responses reveal that college substantially improves access to private health care, but has mixed effects on health behaviors.

We show that exposure to repression under dictatorship increases support for democracy and contributes to regime change when a democratic window of opportunity arises. Studying the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in Chile, we exploit the fact that the predetermined location of military bases predicts local levels of civilian victimization, but is unrelated to historical political preferences. Using two-stage least squares, we show that increased exposure to repression during the dictatorship led to higher voter registration and higher opposition to Pinochet's continuation in power in the 1988 plebiscite that triggered the democratic transition. Complementary survey data confirms that individuals with greater exposure to repression during the military regime continue to have stronger preferences for democracy. However, exposure to repression does not affect election outcomes after democratization.