Suchergebnisse

Artículo de revista ; The article summarises the findings obtained in the estimation of an economic crisis early warning model for the euro area countries. These findings show that monitoring five variables that may indicate the emergence of macro-financial imbalances – current account balance, unit labour costs relative to the rest of the euro area, household indebtedness, corporate indebtedness and sovereign risk premium – helps facilitate the early detection of downturns in the euro area countries. As expected, the model points to a widespread euro area-wide increase in the probability of a decline in activity towards the middle of the last decade, just before the start of the Great Recession. Compared with the core euro area economies, the increase in crisis probability was much more pronounced in the periphery countries, driven by a worsening of the current account balance, growing private sector indebtedness and deteriorating competitiveness. In several of these economies, the probability of downturn predicted by the model heightened in 2011-2012, coinciding with the successive sovereign debt crisis episodes. Since then the probabilities of downturn have moderated substantially and are now low in most countries, albeit in some cases still above those observed at the turn of the century.

The article analyses recent developments in business investment for a large group of EU countries, using a broad set of analytical tools and data sources. We find that the assessment of whether or not investment is currently low varies across benchmarks and countries. At the euro area level and for most countries, the level of business investment is broadly in line with the level of overall activity. However rates of capital stock growth have slowed down since the crisis. The main cyclical determinants of investment developments in the euro area include foreign and domestic demand, uncertainty and financial conditions. Uncertainty seems to have played a negative role during the financial and sovereign debt crises; however, given its low levels more recently, it has not acted as a drag on business investment overall during the recovery. Credit constraints appear to have hindered investment during the twin crises, especially in stressed countries. Aside from cyclical developments, important secular factors - relating to demographics, the changing nature and location of production, and the business environment - have influenced investment. Another factor that may have amplified the decline in private investment, particularly in countries that were hit hardest by the sovereign debt crisis, is the low level of public investment. This is because when public investment enhances the productivity of the private sector, there may be positive spillovers from the former to the latter, including across countries. Finally, intra-sector capital misallocation, measured as the within-sector dispersion across firms in the marginal revenue product of capital, has been increasing in Europe since 2002, which may in turn have exerted a significant drag on total factor productivity dynamics, and hence on aggregate output growth.

This report analyses the financial position of non-financial enterprises in the euro area, in particular the amount of external financing, the choice between debt and equity and the composition and maturity structure of debt. It aims at identifying the main features of the euro area, as well as the peculiarities that depend on the country of origin and the sector of activity. Attention is also devoted to assessing whether a country's institutional eatures are correlated with different financial structures by firms. In light of the particular interest in the access of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to financing, the report also analyses how financing patterns differ across large, medium-sized and small enterprises. Finally, the report discusses the recent trends observed in the corporate finance landscape of the euro area over the past few years. Although it is still too early to pass final judgement, vast structural changes are underway that could have already influenced in a positive way in the availability of external funds for firms. All in all, a comprehensive understanding of corporate finance in the euro area is important from a monetary policy perspective, given its impact on the transmission mechanism and for productivity and economic growth. Moreover, such an understanding is also relevant from a financial stability perspective. A first assessment is now possible eight years into the third stage of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), given that sufficient data have been accumulated during this period. This assessment is particularly important as the introduction of the single currency has had significant structural effects on the working of financial markets, increasing their size and liquidity, and fostering cross-border competition. The data available for this report generally cover the period 1995-2005, and the cut-off date for the statistics included is 10 March 2007.