Suchergebnisse

Mestrado em Economia e Estudos Europeus ; In order to evaluate the trade potential of the Cohesion Countries (CC) with the remaining EU11 countries in the threshold of the eastern enlargement of the European Union, as well as with the CC relations with the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), we use a gravity model. The manufacturing trade potential related to the twenty-five countries involved in the eastern enlargement of the EU15 is hence calculated from 1999 to 2002. Special attention is paid to this enlargement's effect on the CC within this approach. Relatively to previous studies with this same methodological approach, this dissertation is, to the best of our knowledge, the first combining a trade potential based on the gravity model with the inclusion of a variable related to the Commodity Composition of Trade (CCT) in terms of manufactures. Several CCT variables were tested for the available data, taking into consideration high levels of disaggregation. Finally, having in consideration the latest academic debate in course, we analysed and tested all the methodological contributions recently proposed in the literature as regards to the improvement of the econometric specification of the gravity model, namely making use of the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The refinement of the explanatory variables considered in the analysis, specifically those related to the distance measurement, as well as the introduction of new variables, were also taken into consideration. ; Com o intuito de avaliar o potencial de comércio existente entre os Países da Coesão e os restantes países membros da UE15 no limiar do alargamento desta última a leste e, de igual forma, entre os PC e os denominados como Países da Europa Central e Oriental (PECO), fazemos uso de um modelo gravitacional. Assim, o potencial de comércio em termos de manufacturas relacionado com os vinte e cinco países envolvidos no processo do alargamento a Leste da UE15 foi calculado, nesta dissertação, no que diz respeito ao período que medeia entre 1999 e 2002. Neste contexto, especial atenção foi colocada nos efeitos específicos deste alargamento nos Países da Coesão. Relativamente aos estudos prévios que fazem uso desta mesma abordagem metodológica, esta dissertação é, segundo a nossa percepção, a primeira a combinar o cálculo do potencial de comércio, tendo por base um modelo gravitacional, com a inclusão, neste último, de uma variável relativa à Composição do Comércio em Manufacturas (CCM). Vários indicadores da CCM foram, a este respeito, testados a partir dos dados disponíveis e fazendo uso de níveis detalhados de decomposição. Finalmente, aprofundar-se-á o debate em curso, quer em termos empíricos, quer em termos académicos, através da análise e teste das mais recentes contribuições propostas no que diz respeito à melhoria da especificação econométrica do modelo gravitacional, nomeadamente com recurso ao Pseudo-estimador de Máxima Verosimilhança do Tipo Poisson. O refinamento das variáveis explicativas consideradas na análise, especificamente aquelas relacionadas com a mensuração da variável distância, e a introdução de novas variáveis foram igualmente abordadas.

AbstractWe use a gravity model to inquire about the factors that influence the amount of public procurement awarded by developing countries with funding from Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), based on 169 000 contracts. We reach four main conclusions. First, procurement disproportionately benefits firms of low‐ and middle‐income countries and not those of MDBs' larger shareholders. Second, firms of upper‐middle‐income countries can compete successfully with those of developed countries. These two conclusions are in line with MDBs' development mandate. However, we also find that certain MDBs favour domestic firms and that having good diplomatic relations matters when awarding contracts.

Este artigo analisa o conteúdo em mão-deobra do comércio português de bens intermédios exportados e importados. A mão de obra, medida em número de empregos, é considerada no seu conjunto e desagregada por níveis de qualificação (alto, médio ou baixo). A análise recorre à primeira versão da base de dados World InputOutput Database, complementada com as SocioEconomic Accounts desagregadas por níveis de qualificação da mão-de-obra. O período da análise é o mais amplo permitido pela base de dados. O número de empregos necessário para produzir bens intermédios importados (exportados) é usado como proxy do efeito na mão-de-obra da participação a jusante (montante) da economia portuguesa em cadeias de valor globais. Concluímos que, no período analisado, a exportação de bens intermédios é em grande medida intensiva em mão-de-obra pouco qualificada, como expectável num país abundante em emprego pouco qualificado, apesar da melhoria observada nos níveis de qualificação. Concluímos também que a importação de bens intermédios é proporcionalmente mais intensiva em mão-de-obra qualificada, predominantemente de nível médio. O conteúdo líquido em mão-de-obra estimado a partir do comércio internacional de bens intermédios foi negativo em 51 mil empregos no final do período analisado. Os impactos regionais na mão-de-obra em Portugal decorrentes da exportação de bens intermédios não parecem ter sido significativos, atendendo aos ganhos e perdas por sector.

Abstract: China has traditionally been regarded as a continental power. However, the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR), launched in 2013, shapes China's intention to become a global maritime power. The initiative is the most significant contribution to increasing global maritime connectivity in recent decades. The volume and impact of Chinese investments in Europe's seaports are remarkable. This article proposes a fundamental framework to assess who benefits from the initiative. Since quantitative cost-benefit analyses (CBA) hardly apply to multifaceted and partially unquantifiable phenomena, we suggest assessing the MSR by means of a comprehensive qualitative CBA. We opted for a qualitative CBA due to ontological and epistemological reasons: on the one hand, the complex and multilayered nature of the problem is difficult to monetize, and, on the other hand, our argument is not final, as it attempts to assess a given policy before its implementation is sufficiently mature. In this vein, we apply the problem-solving methodology 'analytic hierarchy process'. While the media have disproportionately stressed the negative effects of the MSR, we conclude under this framework that (i) for China, MSR benefits largely outweigh associated costs; (ii) for participating countries, MSR benefits outweigh the associated costs only after cost-mitigating measures are incorporated; and (iii) for non-participating countries, MSR costs outweigh associated benefits.

This paper notes that previous results on trade potential based on a panel data set may be biased and proposes the adequate Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method to estimate trade potential based on the elasticity estimates generated by a gravity model, with conclusions on trade potential based on confidence intervals estimated with the Delta method. This approach had not been yet considered in the literature for panel data. This methodology is used to evaluate Zimbabwe export potential in a period characterized by strong restrictions on trade, based on the elasticity estimates generated by an augmented gravity model for six Southern African Development Community member countries and their exports to the rest of the world. Results show that Zimbabwe has a large unexploited trade potential which will not be realized without political stability and structural reforms. For comparison purposes, we also present the gravity coefficients calculated with other estimation methods.

This paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood esti- mator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed eff ects to capture bilateral trade specificities be- tween country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group. ; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This paper aims to evaluate the trade potential of manufactured products between countries belonging to the EU in the threshold of its Eastern enlargement. For this purpose we use a Gravity model which is estimated with a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Method. We extend the specification of the gravity model in order to capture bilateral trade specificities between groups of countries of the enlarged EU, allowing to test the statistical significance of these inter-groups' trade potential. In addition, it includes the Commodity Composition of Trade. The estimated coefficients are used to project exports of each country. We conclude that in 2002 the CEEC as a group had exhausted their export potentialities to the enlarged EU, whereas the same does not apply to its imports from the EU members.

This book assesses the dynamics, challenges and achievements of the development processes of three Portuguese-speaking Small Island Developing States (PSSIDS) - Cabo Verde, São Tome and Príncipe, and Timor-Leste. Important lessons are drawn from those processes, which are relevant for policymakers, as well as for their bilateral and multilateral development partners, including international organizations such as United Nations or the Community of Portuguese Language Countries. To that end, the book includes contributions to the academic literature about SIDS, an area of research that has been significantly overlooked. The conclusions would be of interest to readers as a lead up to the fiftieth anniversary of their independence