Suchergebnisse

OBJETIVO: Analizar el avance de la meta esperada a mitad del Decenio de Acción para la Seguridad Vial 2011–2020 en México y sus entidades federativas. MÉTODOS: Análisis secundario de las muertes por accidentes de tránsito en México para el 1999–2015. Se proyectó la tendencia para el periodo 2011–2020 utilizando análisis de series de tiempo (modelos autorregresivos integrados de medias móviles). Se utilizó el valor del Criterio de Información de Aikaike para determinar el mejor modelo para el nivel nacional y sus 32 entidades federativas. RESULTADOS: México va avanzando cercano a la meta propuesta, lo que se ha traducido en 10,856 defunciones potencialmente prevenidas en el quinquenio 2011 a 2015. Esto ha sido a expensas de una disminución en el número de muertes de ocupantes de vehículos de motor; ya que las muertes en peatones y motociclistas han ido por arriba de lo que se esperaba. Al menos una tercera parte de las entidades federativas tuvo el número de defunciones por debajo de su meta; aunque en cinco de ellas la tasa de mortalidad continúa inaceptablemente alta. Se identificaron cuatro entidades con más muertes que las proyectadas originalmente y otras con tendencia al incremento donde se requiere, para ambos casos, fortalecer las acciones de prevención. CONCLUSIONES: El análisis realizado permite observar los avances del país a mitad del Decenio de Acción, así como identificar los retos en materia de prevención de lesiones causadas por el tránsito en usuarios vulnerables. Aporta elementos para soportar la necesidad de replantear tanto la meta nacional como la de las distintas entidades federativas. ; OBJECTIVE: To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 in Mexico and its states. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011–2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states. RESULTS: Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 in Mexico and its states. METHODS This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999 and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011–2020 using a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model for the national level and its 32 states. RESULTS Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into 10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to 2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal; although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen their prevention actions. CONCLUSIONS The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal and the goal of the different states.

BACKGROUND: The use of non-standard motorcycle helmets has the potential to undermine multinational efforts aimed at reducing the burden of road traffic injuries associated with motorcycle crashes. However, little is known about the prevalence or factors associated with their use. METHODS: Collaborating institutions in nine low- and middle-income countries undertook cross-sectional surveys, markets surveys, and reviewed legislation and enforcement practices around non-standard helmets. FINDINGS: 5563 helmet-wearing motorcyclists were observed; 54% of the helmets did not appear to have a marker/sticker indicating that the helmet met required standards and interviewers judged that 49% of the helmets were likely to be non-standard helmets. 5088 (91%) of the motorcyclists agreed to be interviewed; those who had spent less than US$10 on their helmet were found to be at the greatest risk of wearing a non-standard helmet. Data were collected across 126 different retail outlets; across all countries, regardless of outlet type, standard helmets were generally 2-3 times more expensive than non-standard helmets. While seven of the nine countries had legislation prohibiting the use of non-standard helmets, only four had legislation prohibiting their manufacture or sale and only three had legislation prohibiting their import. Enforcement of any legislation appeared to be minimal. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that the widespread use of non-standard helmets in low- and middle-income countries may limit the potential gains of helmet use programmes. Strategies aimed at reducing the costs of standard helmets, combined with both legislation and enforcement, will be required to maximise the effects of existing campaigns.