Energijos tiekimo saugumo trikdžių scenarijų modeliavimas ; Modelling of disturbance scenarios of energy security supply
The main objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of energy supply disturbances for modelling energy supply disturbance scenarios. The level of energy supply disturbance depends on the impact it does to energy security of supply. The level of energy supply disturbance expressible with points: from 0 points (no impact) to 5 points (very heavy impact). It is analysed impact of this disturbance to different sectors of state: economical, social and political. The impact and caused damage of energy supply disturbance to economical, social and political sectors is understandable like a different scenario. Energy supply disturbance depends on different parameters. Scenarios of disturbances were modeled considering three parameters. For comparison there were developed 100 different long term energy supply disturbance scenarios. There were selected most common, most heavy (critical) and easiest scenarios, evaluated such scenarios probabilities and energy supply disturbance probabilities. In thia paper was used Markov chains and processes, probability distributions.