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"The cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)--defined here as the ability of the six GCC member states to act together or in parallel--has significant consequences for regional stability and U.S. interests. This report examines factors that bind and divide the six GCC states--Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates--and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years. Addressing the political, economic, and security dimensions of GCC relationships, the study provides a framework for understanding intra-GCC dynamics, an expectation of future developments, and policy recommendations for enhancing stability and U.S. regional interests"--Publisher's description

In 2011, NATO and a number of Arab and other countries backed a rebel overthrow of longstanding Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi. When Qaddafi was killed in October, the intervening powers abruptly wrapped up military operations. A small United Nations mission was given responsibility for coordinating post-conflict stabilization support. The essential tasks of establishing security, building political and administrative institutions, and restarting the economy were left almost entirely up to Libya's new leaders. The results of this very limited international approach have been lackluster at best. Libya has fallen behind on a number of critical post-conflict fronts, jihadist groups have made inroads, and there is still a possibility that this newly freed nation could once again collapse into civil war. Although Libya's fate is ultimately in the hands of Libyans themselves, international actors could have done more to help and could still take steps to avert further deterioration of Libya itself as well as the broader region. This report is based on research and interviews with officials in Washington, London, Paris, Brussels, and Tripoli and draws on existing RAND work on post-conflict reconstruction. It explains the challenges that Libya faced after the war, assesses the steps taken to overcome them, draws implications for future post-conflict efforts, and sketches a way forward in Libya itself

Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict, and external actors have become involved as well. RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play, including the actors, their motivations, and potential impact of their activities

"The pendulum regarding the level of U.S. military participation in stabilization efforts has swung dramatically since 2001, from a low level of preparation and participation in the early days of the Afghanistan and Iraq operations in 2003, to widespread stabilization activities costing billions of dollars in the ensuing years, to significantly scaled-back forces and resources devoted to stabilization in recent years. To remedy the initial lack of preparation, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) issued a directive with guidance on stabilization requirements in 2005 and then updated it with more expansive requirements in 2009. This report supports DoD efforts to update this guidance by assessing the accumulated experience of the past 17 years and evaluating the appropriate roles for the U.S. military and its ability to execute them in conjunction with interagency and other key partners. Without stabilization, successful warfighting often does not produce desired political outcomes. Yet warfighters are not the most capable actors for many stabilization tasks. Therefore, the authors recommend shifting DoD guidance on stabilization away from requiring high levels of proficiency in a large number of tasks to emphasizing three key roles for DoD: prioritizing security tasks; providing support to other actors performing stability functions; and performing crosscutting informational, planning, coordination, and physical support roles."--Publisher's description

The U.S. experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan and the resulting U.S. military doctrine emphasize the need for the United States to consolidate the gains it has realized on the battlefield. Recognizing this need, however, is much easier than understanding the measures necessary to succeed. Both U.S. decisionmakers and a variety of analysts have generally agreed that broad-based, inclusive governance and institutionalized capacity-building consistent with the rule of law are the long-term goals for stabilizing fragile states. The conditions under which these goals are realistic and how to realize them are much more contentious. This report describes research intended to advance at least partial answers to these questions, including a framework to help better understand when we expect U.S. leverage to be successful in nudging partners toward better governance practices. While there is no panacea for the difficulties of stabilizing countries after conflicts, this research offers guidance on how the United States might improve the odds of securing such hard-won gains and evidence to suggest that-at least under the right circumstances-it can do so

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Figures and Tables -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- PART I: The Challenge and Approach -- CHAPTER ONE: Introduction -- CHAPTER TWO: The Rise and Decline of the Islamic State -- CHAPTER THREE: U.S. Strategy -- PART II: Country Campaigns -- CHAPTER FOUR: Iraq -- CHAPTER FIVE: Syria -- CHAPTER SIX: Libya -- CHAPTER SEVEN: Nigeria -- CHAPTER EIGHT: Egypt -- CHAPTER NINE: Afghanistan -- PART III: The Global Campaign -- CHAPTER TEN: The Ideological and Information Campaign -- CHAPTER ELEVEN: Recommendations -- APPENDIXES -- A. Per-Troop Rollback Cost Methodology -- B. Security, Economic, and Humanitarian Assistance Cost Methodology -- Abbreviations -- References.

"Since the January 25 Revolution of 2011 that ousted Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has emerged as a legal entity operating the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP). That party won a strong plurality in the 2011-2012 parliamentary elections as well as claiming the presidency. But while the group was one of the primary beneficiaries of the revolution, its future is clouded by serious generational divides within the organization. The MB is led by an aged leadership whose formative experience was the mihna (ordeal) of the 1960's when the state tried to stamp out the Islamist movement. This hardened the group's leaders and put a premium on secrecy and organizational security. Although individuals under the age of 35 make up a large share of the MB's membership, their participation is modeled on the principle of "listen and obey." This overbearing hierarchy has already led to splits within the MB and will continue to present challenges going forward. These youth merit attention not only as a challenge to the Brotherhood's organizational cohesion, but also as a potential conduit for expanding U.S. engagement with the group. This study presents several recommendations on how the United States can incorporate MB youth into engagement efforts, including understanding but not gaming divisions in the organization, expanding engagement beyond a handful of MB senior leaders, leveraging existing outreach programs to include MB youth, and cultivating leadership buy-in for youth engagement efforts

The Internet is a new battleground between governments that censor online content and those who advocate freedom for all to browse, post, and share information online. This report examines how Internet freedom may transform state-society relations in nondemocratic regimes, using case studies of China, Egypt, Russia, and Syria, and also draws parallels between Internet freedom and Radio Free Europe programs during the Cold War.

Climate change is increasingly becoming a major disruptor of human and natural systems. In some areas, summer temperatures are quickly rising, droughts are deepening, and heat waves are lengthening and getting hotter. Such changes will place pressure on scarce water resources, threaten food security, disrupt fisheries, and result in direct health consequences, among other impacts. These effects can produce secondary and tertiary impacts on human systems that may destabilize societies, economies, or governments. However, these dynamics are highly complex and deeply uncertain, and the pathways from climate changes to societal disruptions that lead to conflict remain poorly understood and an area for continuing research. Still, decisionmakers must plan and act in the near term to reduce future climate-induced risks to physical and human systems. As a first step to characterizing these pathways, this report examines climate change and its impacts on the physical environment to inform operational and longer-term decisionmaking by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), with an emphasis on impacts that are relevant to food and water security in 2035, 2050, and 2070. This is the first report in a series that presents investigations into the potential impacts of climate change on the security environment in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). This report highlights locations that are projected to experience the biggest changes, as well as those that are most exposed to climate hazards

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Foreword -- Contents -- Figures and Tables -- Executive Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Chapter One: Introduction -- Alternative Models -- Assessing and Accepting Risk -- Values and Interests -- Keeping Pace with Change -- Choices for America -- Chapter Two: The Global Economy -- Trends and Challenges -- Including or Excluding China -- Global Versus Regional Rule-Setting -- Chapter Three: National Defense -- Europe -- East Asia -- Counterterrorist Operations -- Nuclear Forces -- Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations -- Readiness -- Enhancing Allied Defenses -- Choices for Sizing the Defense Budget -- Chapter Four: Counterterrorism -- Tactical Versus Strategic Counterterrorism -- What Will Be Needed to Defeat ISIS? -- Picking Partners and Identifying Enemies -- Rebalancing Civil Liberties and Security -- Chapter Five: Cybersecurity -- U.S. Strengths and Vulnerabilities -- Things to Come -- Addressing Vulnerabilities -- Privacy Versus Security -- Limiting the Likelihood of Cyber War -- Chapter Six: Climate Change -- Potential Disruption -- Responses -- Challenges of Collective Action -- Lead or Follow on Emissions Reductions -- Current or New Multinational Path -- Chapter Seven: Europe -- Confronting or Engaging Russia -- Whither Ukraine: Partition or Neutral Buffer -- Addressing European Disintegration -- Chapter Eight: East Asia -- Accommodating Versus Containing China -- Isolating or Engaging North Korea -- Chapter Nine: Middle East and South Asia -- Engaging or Confronting Iran -- Ending the War in Syria -- Arab-Israeli Settlement -- Afghanistan and Pakistan: Staying or Going -- Chapter Ten: Rethinking American National Strategy -- Overlearning the Lessons of the Recent Past -- U.S. National Strategy -- Conclusion -- Abbreviations -- References.