Suchergebnisse

Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks. This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.

La modélisation des impacts du changement climatique sur l'agriculture présente un défi majeur résultant de processus de grandes envergures lié au fonctionnement des marchés, à l'écosystème et au comportement humain. Le cadre analytique utilisé dans cette monographie intègre des composants de la modélisation qui vont de la macro à la micro pour modéliser un ensemble de processus, de l'économie à la biologie. Ce chapitre regroupe les détails techniques qui se rapportent aux modèles utilisés pour cette monographie ainsi que d'autres informations techniques qu'on retrouve dans bon nombre de chapitre. La Figure 2.1 présente un diagramme qui fait le lien entre les trois modèles utilisés : l'Institut International de Recherche sur les Politiques Alimentaires (IFPRI), le modèle international pour l'analyse de produits agricoles et des échanges commerciaux, (IMPACT) (Rosegrant et al. 2008), un modèle d'équilibre partiel de l'agriculture qui met l'accent sur les politiques de simulations, un modèle hydrologique intégré au modèle IMPACT, et le logiciel d'aide à la décision pour le transfert des technologies agricoles (DSSAT) (Jones et al. 2003), qui est utilisé pour évaluer le rendement de la production agricole ; PR ; IFPRI1; CRP7 ; EPTD ; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed at IFPRI at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policy-makers and researchers about the actions that are necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. In 1993, these same long-term global concerns launched the 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Initiative which created the opportunity for further development of the IMPACT model. In 1995 the first results using IMPACT were published as a 2020 Vision discussion paper: Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant et al. 1995) in which the effects of population, investment, and trade scenarios on food security and nutrition status, especially in developing countries, were analyzed. IMPACT continues to serve as the basis for research examining the linkage between the production of key food commodities and food demand and security at the national level in the context of scenarios of future change. Studies focus on regional issues, commodity-level analyses, and cross-cutting thematic issues. IMPACT is also embedded in a variety of major global assessments to complement interdisciplinary, scenario-based work on the future of food supply and demand. The first comprehensive set of results for IMPACT were published in the book Global Food Projections to 2020 (Rosegrant et al. 2001). These projections—which were presented in 2001 at the IFPRI-sponsored conference in Bonn entitled: Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020—are presented with details on the demand system and other underlying data used in the projections work, and cover both global and regionally-focused projections. A complete list of the research published using the IMPACT modeling framework is provided in Appendix 1, including reports for international organizations, such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the FAO, and national governments. NOTE: The 2008 version is superceded by this 2012 version, and the 2008 version is retained for archival purposes and researching using this model should use the documentation from 2012. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP38; HarvestChoice ; EPTD

This open access book is the result of an expert panel convened by the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability and Nature Sustainability. The panel tackled the seventeen UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030 head-on, with respect to the global systems that produce and distribute food. The panel's rigorous synthesis and analysis of existing research leads compellingly to multiple actionable recommendations that, if adopted, would simultaneously lead to healthy and nutritious diets, equitable and inclusive value chains, resilience to shocks and stressors, and climate and environmental sustainability.

Technological and institutional innovations in agri-food systems (AFSs) over the past century have brought dramatic advances in human well-being worldwide. Yet these gains increasingly appear unsustainable due to massive, adverse spillover effects on climate, natural environment, public health and nutrition, and social justice. How can humanity innovate further to bring about AFS transformations that can sustain and expand past progress, while making them healthier for all people and for the planet that must sustain current and future generations? This report was commissioned by the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability in response to an invitation from the journal Nature Sustainability, which—in collaboration with its new sister journal, Nature Food—wanted to devote its 2020 expert panel to this topic. The panel brought together experts who come from many different continents and who span a wide range of disciplines and organizations—from industry and universities to social movements, governments, philanthropies, institutional and venture capital investors, and multilateral agencies. The panel synthesized the best current science to describe the present state of the world's AFSs and key external drivers of AFS changes over the next 25–50 years, as well as tease out key lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic experience this year. As is increasingly widely recognized, the costs that farmers and downstream value chain actors incur and the prices consumers pay understate foods' true costs to society once one accounts for adverse environmental, health, and social spillover effects. Inevitable demographic, economic, and climate change in the coming decades will catastrophically aggravate these problems under business-as-usual scenarios. Innovations will be needed to facilitate concerted, coordinated efforts to transition to more healthy, equitable, resilient, and sustainable AFSs.

The Crop Nutrient Gap Project discusses their activities and outputs in this presentation; including a journal article from 2016, Can Sub-Saharan African Feed Itself? The project focuses on supplying different levels of government and the private sector in SSA with different agricultural methods and system that are sensible both from a climate change and food security perspective.