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Includes bibliographical references. ; The relationship between species distribution and environment has always been a central issue in ecology. The primary aim of this thesis is to explore the role of abiotic and biotic factors in mediating the distribution of woody plants, particularly invasive alien species. Predictions of the future distribution of invasive species are required for management, conservation actions, and legislation. Using predictive geographical modelling, this thesis assesses the role of spatial scale in understanding the determinants of species distribution, modelling invasion spread, and taking conservation decisions. The species distribution databases were collated in a Geographic Information System from various sources (from field mapping to remote-sensing data), and at various spatial scales (from local to sub-continental). Classification and regression trees, a flexible non-parametric statistical technique, were developed for each case study. I show that static modelling approaches, such as classification trees, are appropriate for modelling species distribution at regional to sub-continental scales. More mechanistic approaches, which include biological attributes, are required for accurate modelling of species abundance at local scale. A hierarchy of environmental factors was observed. Abiotic factors such as climate were more important for modelling species distribution at broad scales, whereas biotic factors were the fine-scale drivers of species distribution and abundance. This highlights the scale- dependence of prediction accuracy and of environmental drivers. Predictive habitat modelling was also applied to modelling future land use changes (including invasive alien species) in the context of conservation planning for the Cape Floristic Region. Effective conservation planning requires a detailed assessment of current land use patterns and future land use scenarios. Conservation planning is generally derived at regional scale but implementation takes place at finer scales. I investigated the transition from broad-scale planning to fine-scale implementation. This work emphasises the importance of diverse and fragmented habitats in measuring conservation value. This thesis concludes by linking predictive habitat modelling, species determinants, and application types to the spatial scale analysed.

Climate is frequently used to predict the outcome of species introductions based on the results from species distribution models (SDMs). However, despite the widespread use of SDMs for pre- and post-border risk assessments, data that can be used to validate predictions is often not available until after an invasion has occurred. Here we explore the potential for using historical forestry trials to assess the performance of climate-based SDMs. SDMs were parameterized based on the native range distribution of 36 Australian acacias, and predictions were compared against both the results of 150 years of government forestry trials, and current invasive distribution in southern Africa using true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity. Classification tree analysis was used to evaluate why some Australian acacias failed in trials while others were successful. Predicted suitability was significantly related to the invaded range (sensitivity = 0.87) and success in forestry trials (sensitivity = 0.80), but forestry trial failures were under-predicted (specificity = 0.35). Notably, for forestry trials, the success in trials was greater for species invasive somewhere in the world. SDM predictions also indicate a considerable invasion potential of eight species that are currently naturalized but not yet widespread. Forestry trial data clearly provides a useful additional source of data to validate and refine SDMs in the context of risk assessment. Our study identified the climatic factors required for successful invasion of acacias, and accentuates the importance of integration of status elsewhere for risk assessment.

Climate is frequently used to predict the outcome of species introductions based on the results from species distribution models (SDMs). However, despite the widespread use of SDMs for pre- and post-border risk assessments, data that can be used to validate predictions is often not available until after an invasion has occurred. Here we explore the potential for using historical forestry trials to assess the performance of climate-based SDMs. SDMs were parameterized based on the native range distribution of 36 Australian acacias, and predictions were compared against both the results of 150 years of government forestry trials, and current invasive distribution in southern Africa using true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity. Classification tree analysis was used to evaluate why some Australian acacias failed in trials while others were successful. Predicted suitability was significantly related to the invaded range (sensitivity = 0.87) and success in forestry trials (sensitivity = 0.80), but forestry trial failures were under-predicted (specificity = 0.35). Notably, for forestry trials, the success in trials was greater for species invasive somewhere in the world. SDM predictions also indicate a considerable invasion potential of eight species that are currently naturalized but not yet widespread. Forestry trial data clearly provides a useful additional source of data to validate and refine SDMs in the context of risk assessment. Our study identified the climatic factors required for successful invasion of acacias, and accentuates the importance of integration of status elsewhere for risk assessment.

Insect pollinators, both managed and wild, have become a focus of global scientific, political and media attention because of their apparent decline and the perceived impact of this decline on crop production. Crop pollination by insects is an essential ecosystem service that increases the yield and quality of approximately 35% of crops worldwide. Pollinator declines are a consequence of multiple environmental pressures, e.g. habitat transformation and fragmentation, loss of floral resources, pesticides, pests and diseases, and climate change. Similar environmental pressures are faced in South Africa where there is a high demand for pollination services. In this paper, we synthesise data on the importance of different pollinators as a basis for services to South African crops and on the status of managed honeybees. We also focus on insect pollination services for the Western Cape deciduous fruit industry, which is worth ZAR9800 million per year and is heavily reliant on pollination services from managed honeybees. We discuss landscape and regional level floral resources needed to maintain sufficient numbers of managed honeybee colonies. In summary, the available literature shows a lack of data on diversity and abundance of crop pollinators, and a lack of long-term data to assess declines. We highlight key areas that require research in South Africa and emphasise the critical role of floral resource availability at the landscape and regional scale to sustain pollinators. We conclude that understanding the dynamics of how floral resources are used will help inform how landscapes could be better managed in order to provide long-term sustainable pollination services.

Climate is frequently used to predict the outcome of species introductions based on the results from species distribution models (SDMs). However, despite the widespread use of SDMs for pre- and post-border risk assessments, data that can be used to validate predictions is often not available until after an invasion has occurred. Here we explore the potential for using historical forestry trials to assess the performance of climate-based SDMs. SDMs were parameterized based on the native range distribution of 36 Australian acacias, and predictions were compared against both the results of 150 years of government forestry trials, and current invasive distribution in southern Africa using true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity. Classification tree analysis was used to evaluate why some Australian acacias failed in trials while others were successful. Predicted suitability was significantly related to the invaded range (sensitivity = 0.87) and success in forestry trials (sensitivity = 0.80), but forestry trial failures were under-predicted (specificity = 0.35). Notably, for forestry trials, the success in trials was greater for species invasive somewhere in the world. SDM predictions also indicate a considerable invasion potential of eight species that are currently naturalized but not yet widespread. Forestry trial data clearly provides a useful additional source of data to validate and refine SDMs in the context of risk assessment. Our study identified the climatic factors required for successful invasion of acacias, and accentuates the importance of integration of status elsewhere for risk assessment.

Landscape stewardship offers a means to put social-ecological approaches to stewardship into practice. The growing interest in landscape stewardship has led to a focus on multistakeholder collaboration. Although there is a significant body of literature on collaborative management and governance of natural resources, the particular challenges posed by multifunctional landscapes, in which there are often contested interests, require closer attention. We present a case study from South Africa to investigate how collaborative stewardship can be fostered in contested multifunctional landscapes. We conducted this research through an engaged transdisciplinary research partnership in which we integrated social-ecological practitioner and academic knowledge to gain an in-depth understanding of the challenges of fostering collaboration. We identified five overarching factors that influence collaboration: contextual, institutional, social-relational, individual, and political-historical. Collaborative stewardship approaches focused on the development of formal governance institutions appear to be most successful if enabling individual and social-relational conditions are in place. Our case study, characterized by high social diversity, inequity, and contestation, suggests that consensus-driven approaches to collaboration are unlikely to result in equitable and sustainable landscape stewardship in such contexts. We therefore suggest an approach that focuses on enhancing individual and social-relational enablers. Moreover, we propose a bottom-up patchwork approach to collaborative stewardship premised on the notion of pluralism. This would focus on building new interpersonal relationships and collaborative capacity through small collective actions. Taking a relational, pluralistic approach to fostering collaborative stewardship is particularly important in contested, socially heterogeneous landscapes. Drawing on our study and the literature, we propose guiding principles for implementing relational, pluralistic approaches to collaborative stewardship and suggest future research directions for supporting such approaches.

Abstract In response to growing demand for ecosystem-level risk assessment in biodiversity conservation, and rapid proliferation of locally tailored protocols, the IUCN recently endorsed new Red List criteria as a global standard for ecosystem risk assessment. Four qualities were sought in the design of the IUCN criteria: generality; precision; realism; and simplicity. Drawing from extensive global consultation, we explore trade-offs among these qualities when dealing with key challenges, including ecosystem classification, measuring ecosystem dynamics, degradation and collapse, and setting decision thresholds to delimit ordinal categories of threat. Experience from countries with national lists of threatened ecosystems demonstrates well-balanced trade-offs in current and potential applications of Red Lists of Ecosystems in legislation, policy, environmental management and education. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems should be judged by whether it achieves conservation ends and improves natural resource management, whether its limitations are outweighed by its benefits, and whether it performs better than alternative methods. Future development of the Red List of Ecosystems will benefit from the history of the Red List of Threatened Species which was trialed and adjusted iteratively over 50 years from rudimentary beginnings. We anticipate the Red List of Ecosystems will promote policy focus on conservation outcomes in situ across whole landscapes and seascapes.

In response to growing demand for ecosystem-level risk assessment in biodiversity conservation, and rapid proliferation of locally tailored protocols, the IUCN recently endorsed new Red List criteria as a global standard for ecosystem risk assessment. Four qualities were sought in the design of the IUCN criteria: generality; precision; realism; and simplicity. Drawing from extensive global consultation, we explore trade-offs among these qualities when dealing with key challenges, including ecosystem classification, measuring ecosystem dynamics, degradation and collapse, and setting decision thresholds to delimit ordinal categories of threat. Experience from countries with national lists of threatened ecosystems demonstrates well-balanced trade-offs in current and potential applications of Red Lists of Ecosystems in legislation, policy, environmental management and education. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems should be judged by whether it achieves conservation ends and improves natural resource management, whether its limitations are outweighed by its benefits, and whether it performs better than alternative methods. Future development of the Red List of Ecosystems will benefit from the history of the Red List of Threatened Species which was trialed and adjusted iteratively over 50 years from rudimentary beginnings. We anticipate the Red List of Ecosystems will promote policy focus on conservation outcomes in situ across whole landscapes and seascapes.