Recent developments in the education system and school-to-work transitions in Croatia
In: Arbeitspapiere 138
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In: Arbeitspapiere 138
IN CROATIAN: U posljednjih deset godina tržište rada u Hrvatskoj obilježeno je dugotrajnom krizom i sporim ekonomskim oporavkom te broj zaposlenih do 2019. godine još nije dosegao predkriznu razinu. S druge strane, projekcije za Hrvatsku pokazuju da će do 2030. godine ukupan broj zaposlenih potrebnih gospodarstvu ostati relativno sličan. Međutim, između 2018. i 2030. godine prema baznom scenariju Eurostata radni kontingent u RH smanjit će se za 12, 3 %, čak i uz projiciranu značajnu imigraciju. Demografska kretanja i intenziviranje starenja stanovništva te recentni trendovi iseljavanja pred Hrvatsku stavljaju ozbiljan izazov zadovoljavanja budućih potreba za radnom snagom. Da bi se do 2030. godine samo održao trenutan broj zaposlenih, bit će potrebno značajno povećanje stope aktivnosti stanovništva (20 – 64 godine) sa sadašnjih 65, 2 na 74, 4 %. Pri tome će posebno povećanje biti potrebno u starijem i mlađem radnom kontingentu, gdje je hrvatsko zaostajanje za EU-om najizraženije. Za ostvarenje takvog povećanja stope zaposlenosti bit će nužna snažna potpora javnih politika. Primjerice, za povećanje stope zaposlenosti starijih bit će neminovne intervencije koje će doprinijeti da stariji radnici (i njihovi poslodavci) žele, mogu i vide isplativim zadržavanje u svijetu rada sve do 65. godine, a što sigurno uključuje i investicije u cjeloživotno obrazovanje i uvjete rada te implementaciju antidiskriminacijskih politika.Projekcije pokazuju da će se i sektorska struktura radne snage nastaviti mijenjati. Trend pada broja zaposlenih u poljoprivredi i industriji će se nastaviti, doći će do određenoga smanjivanja uloge ugostiteljstva i turizma, dok će se rast zaposlenosti u zdravstvu i obrazovanju ubrzati, a značajniji porast se očekuje i u stručnim i znanstvenim uslugama te zelenim poslovima. Nažalost, obrazovni sustav ne prati navedene trendove te buduće potrebe ne odgovaraju trenutnoj strukturi kvalifikacija s obzirom na područje visokoga obrazovanja. Izraziti problemi mogu se javiti u zadovoljavanju potreba u području obrazovanja, a u slučaju izraženih migracija i zdravstva. S druge strane, studiji poslovanja i administracije koje pohađa najveći broj studenata te, u nešto manjoj mjeri, studiji iz tehničkoga područja vezani su uz zanimanja u kojima se predviđa smanjivanje broja radnih mjesta u Hrvatskoj. --- IN ENGLISH: In the last ten years, the labor market in Croatia has been marked by a long-lasting crisis and a slow economic recovery, as the number of employees by 2019 has not yet reached pre-crisis levels. CEDEFOP projections for Croatia show that by 2030, the total number of employees needed by the economy will remain relatively similar. However, between 2018 and 2030, according to the Eurostat baseline scenario, the working age population in the Republic of Croatia will decrease by 12.3%, even with projected significant immigration. Demographic trends and the intensification of the population aging, as well as recent trends in emigration, pose a serious challenge to Croatia in meeting future labor needs. In order to maintain the current number of employees by 2030, it will be necessary to significantly increase the activity rate of the population (20-64 years) from the current 65.2 to 74.4%. Increase ought to be strongest among the older and younger cohorts, where Croatia's lag behind the EU is most pronounced. Strong public policy support will be required to achieve such an increase in the employment rate. For example, in order to increase the employment rate of older people, older workers (and their employers) must have preferences, abilities and financial incentives to remain in the world of work until the age of 65. This certainly includes investments in lifelong learning and working conditions, as well as the implementation of anti-discrimination policies. The CEDEFOP projections show that the sectoral structure of the workforce in Croatia will continue to change. The downward trend in the number of employees in agriculture and industry will continue, there will be a certain reduction in the role of hospitality and tourism, while employment growth in health and education will accelerate, and a significant increase is expected in professional and scientific services and green jobs. Unfortunately, the education system does not follow these trends and future needs do not correspond to the current structure of qualifications with regard to the field of higher education. Significant problems can arise in meeting the workforce needs in the education sector, and in case of sustained emigration severe labor shortages can emerge in health sector as well. On the other hand, the studies of business and administration attended by the largest number of students and, to a lesser extent, studies in the technical field are related to occupations in which the number of jobs in Croatia is expected to decrease.
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In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 17, Heft 2
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 16, Heft 2
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 16, Heft 1
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 15, Heft 3
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 15, Heft 2
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 14, Heft 1
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 13, Heft 3
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 13, Heft 3
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 12, Heft 3
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 12, Heft 3
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 12, Heft 2
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 12, Heft 1
ISSN: 1845-6014
In: Revija za socijalnu politiku: Croatian journal of social policy, Band 12, Heft 1
ISSN: 1845-6014