Suchergebnisse

Cet essai d'économie politique analysera le contexte et la dynamique de la présidence de Donald Trump, en mettant l'accent sur l'interaction des facteurs de sécurité politico-économiques et des facteurs de sécurité nationale dans lesquels les premiers sont considérés comme déterminants. Il rejette l'approche dominante « politiquement correcte » qui est critique, presque a priori, de la présidence de Trump, et de son prétendu amateurisme dans l'élaboration et la mise en œuvre de sa politiqu, en particulier dans les domaines de la politique de sécurité étrangère et nationale. On soulignera l'importance du Japon en tant que plus grand pays créancier dans le maintien de l'hégémonie économique des États-Unis, une condition préalable à son hégémonie militaire.

China's massive arms buildups have exerted overpowering psychological effects over Southeast Asian countries. Yet, the world suffers the dearth of objective assessment of China's warfighting capabilities, and is only ill-informed with partial impressionistic evaluation thereof that is based on the quantity of major platforms and weapons. In fact, China itself appears to have emphasized its military power in that manner, greatly having influenced the world perception on regional military balance of power in favor of China. Here, a Japanese perspective is of growing importance particularly because Japan in tandem with the U.S. has begun playing a larger military role of checking China in the South China Sea. This paper is an attempt to appraise the capabilities based on Japanese-language open source analyses of Japanese non-governmental experts and distill the Japanese strategic thinking in contrast to the Chinese counterpart. It is hoped that this work will enable further in-depth discussion that is underpinned on a cultural-philosophic understanding.

This study will first present a series of striking similarities between the imperial Japanese predicament in China and the contemporary U.S. quagmire in post-Saddam Iraq. Second, the study will provide a theoretical perspective on why the two cases share such commonalities. Third, the study will explore the implications of the perspective to international politics, with a focus on the future of the U.S. hegemony. The study is based on the basic understanding that the developing world across regions today has continued to suffer the ongoing single macro-historical process consequent upon the breakdowns of empires as the once-predominant organizational mode of human societies. The analysis argues for the central importance of a stable national identity for modernization and development as well as freedom and democracy.

To cope with China's rapid military buildup in the maritime East Asian theatre, the U.S. has shown forth a rudimentary operational "Air-Sea Battle" concept that aims to produce qualitative advantage through the joint use of air and naval power. It emulates after the "Air-Land Battle" concept that was designed to outdo the quantitative advantage of Soviet military power in the continental European theatre. This paper will first discuss on China's emerging military strategy characterized by "Anti-Access and Aria-Denial" (A2AD), in the context of its evolving grand and defense strategies. Then it will analyze the limits and implications of the Air-Sea Battle vis-à-vis China's A2AD, with a focus on their political and strategic dimensions that are hardly factored in the current debate. The study will present a policy proposal for the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan according to optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic scenarios.

Managing the base relocation issue is linked not only to the political viability of the US-Japan alliance but also to the legitimacy of the Japanese government. (Survival / SWP)