Why are people more pro-trade than pro-migration?
In: Discussion paper series 6351
In: International trade and labour economics
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In: Discussion paper series 6351
In: International trade and labour economics
In: NBER working paper series 13037
This paper uses international survey data to document two stylized facts. First, risk aversion is associated with anti-trade attitudes. Second, this effect is smaller in countries with greater levels of government expenditure. The paper thus provides evidence for the microeconomic underpinnings of the argument associated with Ruggie (1982), Rodrik (1998) and others that government spending can bolster support for globalization by reducing the risk associated with it in the minds of voters.
In: Discussion paper series 6289
In: International trade and labour economics
In this paper I empirically investigate economic and non-economic determinants of migration inflows into fourteen OECD countries by country of origin, between 1980 and 1995. The annual panel data set used makes it possible to exploit both the time-series and cross-country variation in immigrant inflows. I focus on both supply and demand determinants of migration patterns and find results broadly consistent with the theoretical predictions of a standard international-migration model. Both first and second moments of the income distribution in the destination and origin countries shape international migration movements. In particular, I find evidence of robust and significant pull effects, that is the positive impact on immigrant inflows of improvements in the mean income opportunities in the host country. Inequality in the origin and destination economies affects the size of migration rates as predicted by Borjas (1987) selection model. Finally, among the non-economic determinants, I investigate the impact on emigration rates of geographical, cultural, and demographic factors as well as the role played by changes in destination countries' migration policies.
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This paper empirically analyzes both economic and non-economic determinants of attitudes toward immigrants, within and across countries. The two individual-level survey data sets used, covering a wide range of developed and developing countries, make it possible to test for interactive effects between individual characteristics and country-level attributes. The paper identifies and investigates a strong empirical regularity concerning the relationship between individual skill and attitudes toward immigrants. I find that individuals with higher levels of skill are more likely to be pro-immigration in high per capita GDP countries and less likely in low per capita GDP countries. Additional results, based on a smaller sample of countries, suggest a labor-market explanation for this cross-country pattern. The variation across countries in the correlation between skill and preferences appears to be related to differences in the skill composition of natives relative to immigrants across destination economies. This finding is consistent with the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin model, in the absence of factor-price-insensitivity, and of the factor-proportions-analysis model. Finally, non-economic variables also appear to be correlated with immigration attitudes but they do not seem to alter significantly the results on the economic explanations.
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In: Frontiers of Economics and Globalization; Migration and Culture, S. 605-648
In: The Canadian journal of economics: the journal of the Canadian Economics Association = Revue canadienne d'économique, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 1361-1389
ISSN: 1540-5982
Abstract South‐South trade agreements are proliferating. Yet the impact of these agreements is largely unknown, as existing North‐North and North‐South micro‐level studies are likely to yield misleading predictions for South‐South trade agreements. This paper estimates the impact of COMESA on Uganda's imports between 1994 and 2003. Detailed import and tariff data at the 6‐digit Harmonized System level are used for more than 1,000 commodities. Based on a difference‐in‐difference estimation strategy, the paper finds that – in contrast to evidence from aggregate statistics – COMESA's preferential tariff liberalization has not considerably increased Uganda's trade with member countries, on average, across sectors. The effect, however, is heterogeneous across sectors. Finally, the paper finds no evidence of trade‐diversion effects.
In: Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, Band 42, Heft 4, S. 1361-1389
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In: Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano Development Studies Working Paper No. 281
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Working paper
In: Economic policy, Band 23, Heft 56, S. 651-713
ISSN: 1468-0327
In democratic societies individual attitudes of voters represent the foundations of policy making. We start by analyzing patterns in public opinion on migration and find that, across countries of different income levels, only a small minority of voters favour more open migration policies. Next we investigate the determinants of voters' preferences towards immigration from a theoretical and empirical point of view. Our analysis supports the role played by economic channels (labour market, welfare state, efficiency gains) using both the 1995 and 2003 rounds of the ISSP survey. The second part of the paper examines how attitudes translate into a migration policy outcome. We consider two alternative political-economy frameworks: the median voter and the interest groups model. On the one hand, the restrictive policies in place across destination countries and the very low fractions of voters favouring immigration are consistent with the median voter framework. At the same time, given the extent of individual-level opposition to immigration that appears in the data, it is somewhat puzzling, in a median-voter perspective, that migration flows take place at all. Interest-groups dynamics have the potential to explain this puzzle. We find evidence from regression analysis supporting both political-economy frameworks.
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In: IMF Working Papers, S. 1-35
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This paper analyzes welfare-state determinants of individual attitudes towards immigrants - within and across countries - and their interaction with labor-market drivers of preferences. We consider two different mechanisms through which a redistributive welfare system might adjust as a result of immigration. Under the first scenario, immigration has a larger impact on individuals at the top of the income distribution, while under the second one it is low-income individuals who are most affected through this channel. Individual attitudes are consistent with the first welfare-state scenario and with labor-market determinants of immigration attitudes. In countries where natives are on average more skilled than immigrants, individual income is negatively correlated with pro-immigration preferences, while individual skill is positively correlated with them. These relationships have the opposite signs in economies characterized by skilled migration (relative to the native population). Such results are confirmed when we exploit international differences in the characteristics of destination countries' welfare state.
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In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 2127
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