Search results

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed that the economic crisis is inseparable from the health and inequalities crisis. This commentary identifies the key overarching economic decisions that governments will make that are likely have a larger impact on the health of nations than the direct impact of COVID-19 itself. We present these economic decisions to a health audience. The public health profession will need to develop opinions on these key economic decisions if we are to shape the environment that has such a large impact on the work we do.

This article identifies pathways through which impacts from the 2014 Commonwealth Games might arise. It also assesses the likelihood of positive impacts and considers how best to evaluate the games. The pathways identified are: economic growth; increased sports participation; increased pride and sense of identity; volunteering; improved environment; and legacy programmes. There is little or no evidence from previous major multi-sports events to suggest that any of these pathways are likely to generate meaningful positive outcomes although there is an absence of evidence for some. The available evidence could be improved if the 2014 Games were to be evaluated using: retrospective cohort analysis for discrete interventions; theory-based comparative cohort analyses, which includes an assessment of opportunity costs for effects that are intrinsic to hosting the event; and a realist evaluation of 'catalytic impacts'.

Background: Worrying changes in life expectancy trends have been observed recently in the UK, largely attributed to austerity policies introduced over the last decade. To incorporate changes to quality, rather than just length of, life, our aim was to describe trends in healthy life expectancy (HLE) for the relevant period. Methods: In the absence of available long-term trends, we calculated new estimates of HLE for Scotland for the period 1995–2019, using standard HLE methodologies based on mortality and national survey data, and stratified by sex and socioeconomic deprivation. Results: Overall, male and female HLE increased markedly between 1995 and 2009, but then decreased by approximately 2 years between 2011 and 2019. A decline was observed for the most and least deprived groups, but this was larger for those living in the 20% most deprived areas, where the decrease was 3.5 years. Conclusions: Our findings are further evidence of changing levels of pre-pandemic population health in the UK. An increasing body of UK and international evidence have attributed these changes to UK Government austerity policies. There is an urgent need, therefore, to reverse cuts to social security and protect the income and health of the poorest across all of the UK.

BACKGROUND: The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public. METHODS: We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations. RESULTS: Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of −5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to −0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are −0.25, −0.20 and −3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK. CONCLUSION: Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to 'build back better'.

Background: The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public. Methods: We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations. Results: Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of −5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to −0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are −0.25, −0.20 and −3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK. Conclusion: Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to 'build back better'.

In this commentary we explore the potential for the devolved Scottish Government to achieve its stated aim of narrowing health - and broader societal (including economic) - inequalities within both the restrictions of limited devolved powers, and in the context of post-pandemic uncertainty. We do so by focussing on two questions: first, where were we with regards to inequalities policy in Scotland before the pandemic? And second, what are the likely implications of the pandemic for inequalities, and inequalities policymaking, in the country?

BACKGROUND: 'Adverse childhood experiences' (ACEs) are associated with increased risk of negative outcomes in later life: ACEs have consequently become a policy priority in many countries. Despite ACEs being highly socially patterned, there has been very little discussion in the political discourse regarding the role of childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) in understanding and addressing them. The aim here was to undertake a systematic review of the literature on the relationship between childhood SEP and ACEs. METHODS: MEDLINE, PsycINFO, ProQuest and Cochrane Library databases were searched. Inclusion criteria were: (1) measurement of SEP in childhood; (2) measurement of multiple ACEs; (3) ACEs were the outcome; and (4) statistical quantification of the relationship between childhood SEP and ACEs. Search terms included ACEs, SEP and synonyms; a second search additionally included 'maltreatment'. Overall study quality/risk of bias was calculated using a modified version of the Hamilton Tool. RESULTS: In the ACEs-based search, only 6 out of 2825 screened papers were eligible for qualitative synthesis. The second search (including maltreatment) increased numbers to: 4562 papers screened and 35 included for synthesis. Eighteen papers were deemed 'high' quality, five 'medium' and the rest 'low'. Meaningful statistical associations were observed between childhood SEP and ACEs/maltreatment in the vast majority of studies, including all except one of those deemed to be high quality. CONCLUSION: Lower childhood SEP is associated with a greater risk of ACEs/maltreatment. With UK child poverty levels predicted to increase markedly, any policy approach that ignores the socioeconomic context to ACEs is therefore flawed.

Date of Acceptance: 10/07/2015 The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The survey was jointly funded by NHS Health Scotland and the Glasgow Centre for Population Health. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies. The investigator team for the overall survey comprises David Walsh, Gerry McCartney, Sarah McCullough, Marjon van der Pol, Duncan Buchanan and Russell Jones. ; Peer reviewed ; Postprint

The first of two studies reported here by Donna Hunter, Gerry McCartney, Susan Fleming and Fiona Guy investigated whether a specialist nursing service could improve the health care of 162 children in residential care in Renfrewshire, West Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute. It found that after the introduction of the service, the proportion of children with completed carer-held health records (BAAF health record booklets) increased from three per cent to 77 per cent; the proportion receiving a 'pre-admission medical' increased from 38 per cent to 48 per cent; the proportion adequately immunised increased from nine per cent to 56 per cent; the proportion with at least one outstanding medical referral decreased by at least four per cent; the number registered with a dentist increased from 14 per cent to 62 per cent and the proportion who received a 'comprehensive health assessment' increased from 17 per cent to 58 per cent. Thematic analysis of free text journals suggested that universal health services were much more accessible in Argyll & Bute due to well-developed interagency working, low numbers of children in residential care and low rates of staff turnover. In the more urban areas, the main advantage of the service was thought to be in the facilitation of interagency working. The service was received positively by residential care workers and children in residential establishments. This study suggests that the provision of a specialist nursing service can improve the health care of children in residential accommodation.

We have been asked to consider the feasibility of piloting a Citizens' Basic Income (CBI): a basic, unconditional, universal, individual, regular payment that would replace aspects of social security and be introduced alongside changes to taxes. Piloting and evaluating a CBI as a Cluster Randomized Control Trial (RCT) raises the question of whether intervention and comparison groups would be in equipoise, and thus whether randomization would be ethical. We believe that most researchers would accept that additional income, or reduced conditions on receiving income would be likely to improve health, especially at lower income levels. However, there are genuine uncertainties about the impacts on other outcomes, and CBI as a mechanism of providing income. There is also less consensus amongst civil servants and politicians about the impacts on health, and substantial disagreement about whether these would outweigh other impacts. We believe that an RCT is ethical because of these uncertainties. We also argue that the principle of equipoise should apply to randomized and non-randomized trials; that randomization is a fairer means of allocating to intervention and comparison groups; and that there is an ethical case for experimentation to generate higher-quality evidence for policymaking that may otherwise do harm.

We have been asked to consider the feasibility of piloting a Citizens' Basic Income (CBI): a basic, unconditional, universal, individual, regular payment that would replace aspects of social security and be introduced alongside changes to taxes. Piloting and evaluating a CBI as a Cluster Randomized Control Trial (RCT) raises the question of whether intervention and comparison groups would be in equipoise, and thus whether randomization would be ethical. We believe that most researchers would accept that additional income, or reduced conditions on receiving income would be likely to improve health, especially at lower income levels. However, there are genuine uncertainties about the impacts on other outcomes, and CBI as a mechanism of providing income. There is also less consensus amongst civil servants and politicians about the impacts on health, and substantial disagreement about whether these would outweigh other impacts. We believe that an RCT is ethical because of these uncertainties. We also argue that the principle of equipoise should apply to randomized and non-randomized trials; that randomization is a fairer means of allocating to intervention and comparison groups; and that there is an ethical case for experimentation to generate higher-quality evidence for policymaking that may otherwise do harm.

BackgroundA criticism of Burden of Disease (BOD) estimates has been that they only provide evidence for national policy and aren't relevant for local needs. This has led to a growing call for BOD studies to provide more granular estimates for sub-national geographies, particularly within European countries, to help support local policy makers with evidence-based decision making.
AimTo develop local BOD estimates and investigate inequalities in BOD within and across local areas of Scotland.
MethodsEstimates of Years Lived with Disability (YLD), Years of Life Lost (YLL), DALYs (Disability-adjusted Life Years), prevalent cases and mortality counts were developed for 68 conditions. Morbidity estimates were calculated based on a three-year average of 5-year age-group, sex and deprivation decile rates per person (from the SBOD 2016 study) which were applied to 2016 mid-year local population estimates. Mortality estimates were based on a three-year average (2014-16) sourced from the National Records of Scotland register of deaths. Direct age-standardised rates and numbers were produced for regions (3), NHS boards (14) and local authorities (32) by age-group and sex.
ResultsAcross local authorities the male rate of all-cause DALYs ranged from 20,996 (per 100,000 population) to 33,442 and the female rate of all-cause DALYs ranged from 19,889 to 27,684. Inequalities in age-group (15-24; 25-44; 45-64; and 65+ years) differences between all-cause DALYs rates in the area with the highest and lowest rates ranged from 58.4% to 98.0% in males. Comparable estimates were slightly lower for females, but inequalities in rates were wider (41.4% to 87.4%).
ConclusionInequalities in BOD across areas highlight the need for action at all levels. These local estimates provide a huge opportunity to work towards and beyond the 2020 vision of the Scottish Government by ensuring that we have the right workforce and services to achieve a healthier Scotland.

BackgroundIncreasingly Burden of Disease (BOD) measures are being used to influence policy decisions because they summarise health loss in an equitable manner. An important part of producing non-fatal BOD estimates are severity distributions (SDs). The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study use the same SDs across countries due to a lack of available data.
Aim To develop and assess the impact of national SDs compared with GBD worldwide severity distributions for 21 cancer types.
MethodsPatient-level records from the Scottish Cancer Registry for 21 cancers were obtained and linked to death registrations. We estimated prevalent cancer cases for 2016 and assigned each case to one of four phases (diagnosis and treatment; controlled; metastatic; and terminal) using GBD 2016 study definitions. SDs were calculated by considering relative proportions. The impact of choice of SDs was evaluated by comparing relative differences between weighted-average disability weights (DW) derived using GBD 2016 worldwide SDs with those derived from Scottish SDs.
ResultsFor the majority of cancers the most prevalent phase was the controlled phase, which contributed a higher proportion than the combined proportion from the other three phases across all cancers except mesothelioma. Differences in the composition of severity meant that most point-estimates of Scottish severity proportions were out-with the 95% uncertainty intervals. These differences resulted in overestimates of weighted-average DWs based on GBD 2016 worldwide SDs (17 out of 21 cancer types). The largest relative overestimates were for gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, oesophageal cancer and pancreatic cancer (71%, 32% and 31% higher respectively).
ConclusionThese findings illustrate a systematic bias introduced by using worldwide SDs. Current non-fatal BOD estimates should not be interpreted too precisely when comparing populations when they rely on data inputs from other countries. It is essential to ensure that any estimates are based upon country-specific data as far as possible.