Suchergebnisse

Abstract
Network evolution is an important problem for social scientists, management consultants, and social network scholars. Unfortunately, few empirical data sets exist that have sufficient data to fully explore evolution dynamics. Increasingly, more and more online data sets are used in lieu of offline, face-to-face data. The veracities of these findings are questionable, however, because there are few studies exploring the similarity of online-offline dynamics. The IkeNet project investigated online and offline network evolution. Empirical data was collected on a group of 22 mid-career military officers going through a one-year graduate program. Data collection included email communication collected from the Exchange server, as well as self-reported friendship, and time spent together, over a course of 20 weeks. Numerous attribute data on the individual actors was collected from their military personnel files. The data allows network scholars to conduct research into the dynamics of network evolution and allows educators a real-world example data set for use in classroom instruction.

Abstract
Changes in observed social networks may signal an underlying change within an organization, and may even predict significant events or behaviors. The breakdown of a team's effectiveness, the emergence of informal leaders, or the preparation of an attack by a clandestine network may all be associated with changes in the patterns of interactions between group members. The ability to systematically, statistically, effectively and efficiently detect these changes has the potential to enable the anticipation, early warning, and faster response to both positive and negative organizational activities. By applying statistical process control techniques to social networks we can rapidly detect changes in these networks. Herein we describe this methodology and then illustrate it using four data sets, of which the first is the Newcomb fraternity data, the second set of data is collected on a group of mid-career U.S. Army officers in a week long training exercise, the third is the perceived connections among members of al Qaeda based on open source, and the fourth data set is simulated using multi-agent simulation. The results indicate that this approach is able to detect change even with the high levels of uncertainty inherent in these data.

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, commonly known as COVID19 has become a global pandemic in early 2020. The world has mounted a global social distancing intervention on a scale thought unimaginable prior to this outbreak; however, the economic impact and sustainability limits of this policy create significant challenges for government leaders around the world. Understanding the future spread and growth of COVID19 is further complicated by data quality issues due to high numbers of asymptomatic patients who may transmit the disease yet show no symptoms; lack of testing resources; failure of recovered patients to be counted; delays in reporting hospitalizations and deaths; and the co-morbidity of other life-threatening illnesses. We propose a Monte Carlo method for inferring true case counts from observed deaths using clinical estimates of Infection Fatality Ratios and Time to Death. Findings indicate that current COVID19 confirmed positive counts represent a small fraction of actual cases, and that even relatively effective surveillance regimes fail to identify all infectious individuals. We further demonstrate that the miscount also distorts officials' ability to discern the peak of an epidemic, confounding efforts to assess the efficacy of various interventions.

Authored by military and intelligence professionals, this book introduces the new and emerging topic of social network analysis. Focusing on models and methods for the analysis of organizational risk, the book provides easily accessible yet comprehensive coverage of networks basics, basic centrality measures, social links, subgroup analysis, data sources, and more. Examples of mathematical calculations and formulas for social network measures are also included.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) gained control over large swathes of Iraq in the summer of 2014 at a breathtaking rate. At the time many rightly wondered how ISIS was able to claim so much territory in the Sunni-dominated portion of Iraq so quickly. Just as unexpected, however, was the downfall of ISIS; by 2017, their hold on the region had crumbed with ISIS focusing on avoiding complete annihilation. This book explores the social and psychological factors behind how ISIS was able to rise in Iraq, control most of it, and why most of that population eventually turned on it. Synthesized by some of the foremost experts on terrorism, the analysis is based on a unique array of public opinion data from surveys, focus groups, and interviews. The authors explain why some Iraqis acquiesced to ISIS while others opposed it, why ISIS lost the hearts and minds of Iraqi Sunni Arabs, and ultimately how this contributed to its battlefield defeats. The in-depth face-to-face interviews with ISIS members are a particularly rich source of data, supplementing empirical findings to draw lessons as to what individual and societal-level factors contribute to radicalization and what can be done to counter radicalization and support deradicalization.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) gained control over large swathes of Iraq in the summer of 2014 at a breathtaking rate. At the time many rightly wondered how ISIS was able to claim so much territory in the Sunni-dominated portion of Iraq so quickly. Just as unexpected, however, was the downfall of ISIS; by 2017, their hold on the region had crumbed with ISIS focusing on avoiding complete annihilation. This book explores the social and psychological factors behind how ISIS was able to rise in Iraq, control most of it, and why most of that population eventually turned on it. The analysis is based on a unique array of public opinion data from surveys, focus groups, and interviews. The authors explain why some Iraqis acquiesced to ISIS while others opposed it, why ISIS lost the hearts and minds of Iraqi Sunni Arabs, and ultimately how this contributed to its battlefield defeats.