Integrated Regional Changes in Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Implications for the Global Climate System
In: Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Band 31
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In: Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Band 31
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In: Environmental management: an international journal for decision makers, scientists, and environmental auditors, Band 44, Heft 6, S. 1043-1052
ISSN: 1432-1009
This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.
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Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the BorealArctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 x 0.5 degrees grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 x 10(6) km(2) (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 x 10(6) km(2). Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering similar to 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 x 10(6) km(2) (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km(2)) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (<0.1 km(2)) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 x 10(6) km(2). Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12 x 10(6) km(2) (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of "wetscapes" that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions. ; Funding Agencies|National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) [RGPIN-2016-04688]; Campus Alberta Innovates Program; ERCEuropean Research Council (ERC)European Commission [851181, 725546]; Helmholtz Impulse and Networking Fund; Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationGordon and Betty Moore Foundation [GBMF5439, 839]; Swedish Research Council VRSwedish Research Council [2016-04829]; Norwegian Research CouncilResearch Council of NorwayEuropean Commission [274711]; Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research CouncilEuropean Commission [201705268]; BMBF KoPf Synthesis projectFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) [03F0834B]; NASA Earth Science [NNH17ZDA001N]; NSF-EnvE [1928048]; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through the Canada Research Chairs programNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); National Aeronautics and Space Administration IDS program (NASA) [NNX17AK10G]; Environment and Climate Change Canada; Canadian Space AgencyCanadian Space Agency; Government of Alberta; Government of Saskatchewan; US Forest ServiceUnited States Department of Agriculture (USDA)United States Forest Service; US Fish and Wildlife ServiceUS Fish & Wildlife Service; PEW Charitable Trusts; Canadian Boreal Initiative; Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc.; Mistik Management Ltd.; Louisiana-Pacific; Forest Products Association of Canada; Weyerhaeuser; Lakeland Industry and Community; Encana; Imperial Oil; Devon Energy Corporation; Shell Canada Energy; Suncor Foundation; Treaty 8 Tribal Corporation ("Akaitcho"); Dehcho First Nations; NSF PLR Arctic System Science Research Networking Activities (RNA) Permafrost Carbon Network: Synthesizing Flux Observations for Benchmarking Model Projections of Permafrost Carbon Exchange [1931333]; Swedish Research Council FORMASSwedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council Formas [2018-01794]; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)CGIAR
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The biodiversity-productivity relationship (BPR) is foundational to our understanding of the global extinction crisis and its impacts on ecosystem functioning. Understanding BPR is critical for the accurate valuation and effective conservation of biodiversity. Using ground-sourced data from 777,126 permanent plots, spanning 44 countries and most terrestrial biomes, we reveal a globally consistent positive concave-down BPR, showing that continued biodiversity loss would result in an accelerating decline in forest productivity worldwide.The value of biodiversity in maintaining commercial forest productivity alone—US$166 billion to 490 billion per year according to our estimation—is more than twice what it would cost to implement effective global conservation.This highlights the need for a worldwide reassessment of biodiversity values, forest management strategies, and conservation priorities. ; This work was supported in part by West Virginia University under the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) McIntire-Stennis Funds WVA00104 and WVA00105; U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research Program at Cedar Creek (DEB-1234162); the University of Minnesota Department of Forest Resources and Institute on the Environment; the Architecture and Environment Department of Italcementi Group, Bergamo (Italy); a Marie Skłodowska Curie fellowship; Polish National Science Center grant 2011/02/A/NZ9/00108; the French L'Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) (Centre d'Étude de la Biodiversité Amazonienne: ANR-10-LABX-0025); the General Directory of State Forest National Holding DB; General Directorate of State Forests, Warsaw, Poland (Research Projects 1/07 and OR/2717/3/11); the 12th Five-Year Science and Technology Support Project (grant 2012BAD22B02) of China; the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research Program funded by NSF and the U.S. Forest Service (any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. government); National Research Foundation of Korea (grant NRF-2015R1C1A1A02037721), Korea Forest Service (grants S111215L020110, S211315L020120 and S111415L080120) and Promising-Pioneering Researcher Program through Seoul National University (SNU) in 2015; Core funding for Crown Research Institutes from the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Science and Innovation Group; the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) Priority Program 1374 Biodiversity Exploratories; Chilean research grants Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico (FONDECYT) 1151495 and 11110270; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (grant RGPIN-2014-04181); Brazilian Research grants CNPq 312075/2013 and FAPESC 2013/TR441 supporting Santa Catarina State Forest Inventory (IFFSC); the General Directorate of State Forests, Warsaw, Poland; the Bavarian State Ministry for Nutrition, Agriculture, and Forestry project W07; the Bavarian State Forest Enterprise (Bayerische Staatsforsten AöR); German Science Foundation for project PR 292/12-1; the European Union for funding the COST Action FP1206 EuMIXFOR; FEDER/ COMPETE/POCI under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and FCT–Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology under the project UID/AGR/04033/2013; Swiss National Science Foundation grant 310030B_147092; the EU H2020 PEGASUS project (no 633814), EU H2020 Simwood project (no 613762); and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program within the framework of the MultiFUNGtionality Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (IF-EF) under grant agreement 655815. The expeditions in Cameroon to collect the data were partly funded by a grant from the Royal Society and the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) to Simon L. Lewis.
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