Suchergebnisse

The Australian federal election held on 10 Nov 2001 resulted in the return of a Liberal-National Party coalition government led by John Howard. The election was the third win for Howard; in the volatile world of Australian politics, this is a record matched only in the postwar years by three other prime ministers: Sir Robert Menzies, Malcolm Fraser, & Bob Hawke. Indeed, for the first six months of 2001, Labor had enjoyed a comfortable poll lead over the Liberals of up to 13% & appeared set for victory. By mid-year, the asylum seeker crisis saw that poll lead dissipate, & for several months the parties were running neck & neck. Following the events of September 11 (2001) in New York, public opinion again shifted, with the Liberals achieving a dramatic 15% lead over Labor, a position they maintained through to the election. 1 Table, 7 References. Adapted from the source document.

PUBLIC OPINION ON THE ENVIRONMENT IS USUALLY VIEWED AS A HOMOGENEOUS ENTITY. THIS ASSUMPTION CAN BE QUESTIONED BY IDENTIFYING THE MAJOR DIMENSIONS OF PUBLIC OPINION ON ENVIRONMENTALISM USING NATIONAL SURVEY DATA COLLECTED IN AUSTRALIA IN LATE 1990. THE PUBLIC CONCEPTUALIZES THE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF THREE DIMENSIONS: A COSMOPOLITAN DIMENSION, ENCOMPASSING NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONCERNS; A LOCAL DIMENSION FOCUSING ON GENERAL CONCERNS; AND A LOCAL DIMENSION CONCERNED SOLELY WITH DAMAGE TO LAND. COSMOPOLITANISM HAS ITS ROOTS IN VALUE CHANGE, STIMULATES INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISM, AND HELPS TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT FOR AND AGAINST THE MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES. BY CONTRAST, THERE IS LESS POPULAR SUPPORT FOR SELF-INTERESTED LOCAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS, AND THIS DIMENSION HAS FEWER POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS. THE ROLE OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN POLITICIZING THESE DIMENSIONS IS CENTRAL AND RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CONTINUING ELECTORAL PRESENCE OF GREEN PARTIES AND GROUPS WITHIN THE AUSTRALIAN PARTY SYSTEM.

Three approaches to mass-elite political differences are analyzed using data from a survey of 1,825 voters & 868 candidates during the 1987 Australian federal election: a perspective developed by early classical democratic theorists (eg, Plato & Aristotle), which views education as the solution to mass-elite political differences; a democratic theory developed by John Stuart Mill, which sees efforts to reduce mass-elite differences as essentially futile; & a view espoused by modern elite theorists, arguing that elites are more polarized on political issues than mass publics, & that political conflict is moderated by the ability of elites to understate potentially divisive issues. The data reveal little support for education as a factor reducing mass-elite political differences, but rather, support the democratic elitists' argument that mass-elite political differences are fixed & enduring. In line with modern elite theories, the results also confirm the existence of intense issue polarization among elites, rather than among the voters at large, & suggest that elites are able to effectively control the issues that constitute the political agenda. 6 Tables, 4 Figures, 1 Appendix, 62 References. Adapted from the source document.

CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS ON VOTING BEHAVIOUR, WHERE THEY EXIST AT ALL, ARE A MINOR AND RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT INFLUENCE.

MANY STUDIES HAVE EXAMINED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SOCIAL CONTEXT IN WHICH AN INDIVIDUAL LIVES AND THE EFFECT THIS HAS ON THEIR POLITICAL BEHAVIOUR. ALMOST WITHOUT EXCEPTION, SOCIAL CONTEXT HAS BEEN FOUND TO BE SUBSTANTIAL ELECTORAL SIGNIFICANCE. BY APPLYING MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS TO AGGREGATE- AND INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL AUSTRALIAN AND BRITISH DATA, THESE CLAIMS ARE QUESTIONED. THE PAPER ARGUES, FIRSTLY, THAT FINDINGS WHICH HAVE EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF CONTEXT ARE GREATLY OVERESTIMATED AND CAUSED BY A FAILURE TO CONTROL FOR A SUFFICIENTLY WIDE RANGE OF VARIABLES; ONCE THESE CONTROLS ARE INTRODUCED, THE ELECTORAL SIGNIFICANCE OF CONTEXT DISAPPEARS IN BRITAIN, AND IS GREATLY REDUCED IN AUSTRALIA. SECONDLY, THE SMALL BUT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF CONTEXT IN AUSTRALIA IS THE RESULT OF THE COMPULSORY VOTING SYSTEM IN THAT COUNTRY. IN BRITAIN, IT IS ARGUED THAT NON-VOTERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO TAKE THEIR ELECTORAL CUES FROM THEIR IMMEDIATE CONTEXT, BUT SINCE THEY ABSTAIN, THERE IS NO CONTEXTUAL EFFECT. IN AUSTRALIA, BY CONTRAST, THEY ARE FORCED TO VOTE BY LAW AND CAUSE THE SMALL CONTEXTUAL EFFECT FOUND THERE.

Political broadcasting through the electronic media has largely displaced two older methods of influencing voters -- canvassing & advertising in the press -- as the dominant party campaign activity during elections. Survey data collected during the 1979 & 1983 British general elections are utilized here to estimate the reported effects of these three types of campaign activity on electoral outcomes (N = 2,434 & 4,146, respectively). The results show that few voters report being influenced by canvassing & advertising, & the net effect on the vote is either small or nonexistent. By contrast, around 1 in 6 report being influenced by a party political broadcast & those most influenced are eventual Liberal-Alliance voters. The net electoral effect of political broadcasting can range as high as 3.4%, but gains for the Conservatives & Labor are offset by the political broadcasting of competitors. The main exceptions are the Liberals in 1979 & the Alliance in 1983, who made a net gain of 1.5% & 3.3% of the vote, respectively. 4 Tables, 1 Appendix, 45 References. Modified AA

Since the foundation of Northern Ireland in 1921, political differences have been consistently apparent within the Protestant community. These differences have, however, become more serious since the start of the present disturbances in 1969. Three hypotheses have been put forward to account for these divisions: (1) that they are due to SC, (2) to regional variations, & (3) to denominational differences among Protestants. Multivariate analysis applied to 1978 interview survey data shows little support for these hypotheses, implying that political differences are more randomly distributed across the Protestant community than had previously been thought. 4 Tables. AA.

Abstract: This paper applies multivariate analysis to 1978 survey data to examine the attitude structure of the Northern Ireland electorate and its effect on partisanship. Four political attitudes are extracted: two communal attitudes, strongly related to religious affiliation, and two non-communal attitudes, unrelated to religious affiliation. All four attitudes are found to be weakly embedded in the social structure. When used to predict partisan loyalties, the four political attitudes have a consistent, if limited, significance. In addition, analysis shows that individuals who support the Alliance Party are more likely to reject the dominant attitudes and loyalties of their co-religionists.