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In this paper we use high-dimensional models, estimated by the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), to forecast the Brazilian inflation. The models are compared to benchmark specifications such as linear autoregressive (AR) and the factor models based on principal components. Our results showed that the LASSO-based specifications have the smallest errors for short-horizon forecasts. However, for long horizons the AR benchmark is the best model with respect to point forecasts. The factor model also produces some good long horizon forecasts in a few cases. We estimated all the models for the two most important Brazilian inflation measures, the IPCA and the IGP-M indexes. The results also showed that there are differences on the selected variables for both measures. Finally, the most important variables selected by the LASSO based models are, in general, related to government debt and money. On the other hand, variables such as unemployment and production were rarely selected by the LASSO.

In Unconditional Convergence, Rodrik (2011b) documented that manufacturing industries exhibit unconditional convergence in labor productivity. We provide a novel semi-parametric specification for convergence equations and show that the speed of convergence varies systematically with country-specific characteristics. We consider the flexible smooth transition model with multiple transition variables, which allows each group to have distinct dynamics controlled by a linear combination of known variables. We found evidence that the laws of motion for industry productivity growth are different across countries, varying with political institutions. The speed of convergence also has a non-monotonic relationship with trade openness and education. ; Em Unconditional Convergence, Rodrik (2011b), documentou que industrias do setor de manufaturas possuem convergência incondicional da produtividade do trabalho. Neste artigo nós propomos um modelo semi-paramétrico para equações de convergência e mostramos que a velocidade de convergência muda sistematicamente com características específicas dos países estudados. Nós consideramos um modelo flexível de transição suave e com múltiplas variáveis de transição. Nós encontramos evidências que as leis do movimento para o crescimento na produtividade da indústria é diferente nos países.