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Our study uses regional-scale maps to quantify carbon storage and sequestration from different land use types to evaluate the effects of future land use scenarios. We developed an integrated modeling approach to assess the spatiotemporal impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the provision and value of the carbon storage and sequestration during the historical period (2000–2019) and predicted scenarios (2019–2046) in the Jiroft plain, Iran. We integrated several analytic tools for our analysis, which was comprised of Google Earth Engine (GEE), Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CA-MC) model, Intensity Analysis (IAA), and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Our results demonstrate that: (1) agriculture and urban expansion led to a considerable decrease in carbon storage, mainly due to rapid deforestation from 2000–2019; (2) if the historical trend continues under the business as usual (BAU) scenario, it will lead to considerable social costs due to the loss of stored carbon in the plain (2,624,113 Mg) with an annual average sequestration loss of −475,547 Mg; (3) the downward carbon sequestration trend could potentially be reversed by employing the environmentally sound planning (ESP) scenario that is estimated to save 3,705,491 Mg in carbon storage, with annual average sequestration gain of + 605,830 Mg. The design scenarios provide a useful guide for policymakers and local governments to help understand the potential outcomes of the various development strategies, which will ultimately lead to more effective ecosystem management.

The promise that ecosystem service assessments will contribute to better decision-making is not yet proven. We analyse how knowledge on ecosystem services is actually used to inform land and water management in 22 case studies covering different social-ecological systems in European and Latin American countries. None of the case studies reported instrumental use of knowledge in a sense that ecosystem service knowledge would have served as. an impartial arbiter between policy options. Yet, in most cases, there was some evidence of conceptual learning as a result of close interaction between researchers, practitioners and stakeholders. We observed several factors that constrained knowledge uptake, including competing interests and political agendas, scientific disputes, professional norms and competencies, and lack of vertical and horizontal integration. Ecosystem knowledge played a small role particularly in those planning and policy-making situations where it challenged established interests and the current distribution of benefits from ecosystems. The factors that facilitated knowledge use included application of transparent participatory methods, social capital, policy champions and clear synergies between ecosystem services and human well-being. The results are aligned with previous studies which have emphasized the importance of building local capacity, ownership and trust for the long-term success of ecosystem service research.