Suchergebnisse

As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more 'sustainable' conventional biofuels plan and a 'no-mandate' scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets. ; Published

Food supply and food distribution have been and are important issues in the global political arena. The recent emergence of biofuel policies has increased the influence of the policy arena on agricultural production. In this paper we show the regional impact of changes in the European Common Agricultural Policy and biofuel policy. Shifting trade patterns, changes in agricultural production, and expansion of agricultural area or intensification of agriculture result in changes in land use and land use emissions. Higher prices for agricultural crops on the world market together with changing production raise agricultural income. Brazil is the region the most affected. The results show that arrangements or policies will be needed to avoid negative impacts in other regions of changing agricultural or biofuel policies in the European Union

Dieser Artikel analysiert die Folgen der verstärkten Biokraftstoffnachfrage in verschiedenen Regionen bzw. Ländern, die Pläne zur Implementierung oder zur Erweiterung bestehender Biokraftstoffpolitiken angekündigt haben. Die Analyse berücksichtigt nicht nur verpflichtende, sondern auch freiwillige Beimischungsziele für Kraftstoffe. Der hier gewählte quantitative Ansatz kombiniert zwei unterschiedliche Modelle: Zum einen ein gesamtwirtschaftliches Wirtschaftsmodell (LEITAP) und zum anderen ein räumliches biophysikalisches Landnutzungsmodell (IMAGE). Dieses Papier ergänzt die bestehenden Forschungsergebnisse durch eine umfassende Berücksichtigung von Biokraftstoffpolitiken nicht nur in der EU und den USA, sondern auch in verschiedenen anderen Ländern wie Brasilien, Indien und China. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich Agrarpreise und Treibhausgasemissionen aufgrund von Landnutzungsänderungen nicht proportional zur steigenden Nachfrage nach landwirtschaftlichen Rohprodukten für die Biokraftstoffproduktion verändern. Dieses hinsichtlich Lebensmittelsicherung und Klimawandel wesentliche Ergebnis sollte bei einer notwendigen Neugestaltung von Biokraftstoffpolitik in Betracht gezogen werden. ; This article analyzes the consequences of enhanced biofuel demand in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers not only mandatory blending targets for transportation fuels, but also voluntary ones. The chosen quantitative modeling approach is two-fold: it combines a multi-sectoral economic model (LEITAP) with a spatial bio-physical land use model (IMAGE 2.4). This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the combination of the two modeling systems allows for the observation of changes in both economic and bio-physical indicators. The results show that some indicators with high political relevance, such as agricultural prices and greenhouse gas emissions from land use, do not necessarily react proportionally to increasing demand for agricultural products from the biofuel sector. This finding should be considered when designing biofuel policies because these indicators are directly relevant for food security and climate change.