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The absence of war within Western Civilization since World War II may not be the result of nuclear deterrence. It may be that nuclear weapons have not been used because of structural factors that are responsible for the peace. Measured in several ways, the present period looks as though it may be the most peaceful one in the past quarter millennium, probably the most peaceful in modern Western history. The factors behind this peace may have to do with the combination of long-term fluctuations that produces alternate crises and `ages', and with a particular way of seeing that is as characteristic of the present period as what we now perceive as `Victorian' was for the period between the Congress of Vienna and World War I. If that should be the case, we may expect short-term pressures for arms reduction, but long-term factors that would increase tension and danger several decades hence.

It is suggested that the absence of war in Western civilization since WWII may not be due to nuclear deterrence, but to structural factors responsible for peace. Measured in several ways, the present period looks as though it may be the most peaceful one in the past quarter millennium, probably the most peaceful in modern Western history. The factors behind this peace may reflect long-term fluctuations that produce alternate crises & "ages," & a particular way of seeing that is as characteristic of the present period as "Victorian" was for the period between the Congress of Vienna & WWII. If that is the case, short-term pressures for arms reduction should be expected, though there are long-term factors that could increase tension & danger several decades hence. 5 Tables, 2 Figures, 30 References. Adapted from the source document.

With comment by Robin M. Williams, jr. Applies findings from a study of long periods of peace in Western history to the present situation and predicts several more decades of remission.