AbstractCriminality is an increasing problem in urban centres. In this paper, we are contributing to this literature estimating the causal relationship between per capita incomes on homicides rates. The simultaneity between those two variables and spatial spillover make our aim challenging. To deal with this problem, we combine two regression techniques: Instrumental variable and spatial econometrics. Using rainfall as an instrument, we have found that increases of GDP per capita by 1% reduces the municipality homicides by 0.79% in total, 0.5% directly and 0.3% indirectly. In other words, the indirect effect arises because of the influence of each variable on the neighbours' dependent variable and these spillovers amplify the GDP per capita effect on homicides rates. Another finding relevant is climate change. We have done a forecasting exercise decreasing the rainfall around 5 SE (− 28.5ml3) , then we have found that homicides rates increased 4%.
Climate has relevant impacts on human health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), climate-sensitive health problems kill millions of people every year and undermine the physical and psychological health of millions (WHO, 2012). In the particular case of vector-borne diseases, climate conditions assure the vectors' survival and reproduction and, consequently, the transmission of the diseases (Kelly-Hope and Thomson, 2008). Increases in heat, precipitation, and humidity can allow insects to move from regions where infectious diseases thrive into new places. The vector-borne disease analyzed by this study is the dengue fever. Dengue fever is the key target infectious disease in Latin America, whose incidence depends highly on climate conditions due to the mosquitos. In this sense, this study intends to identify the climate impact on dengue in the country in order to measure the impact of climate change on the dengue risk in Brazil, and also examine the public policy's role on minimizing those effects in the country. The government influence, in terms of public policy, is mainly given by the universalization of running water and sewage collection (both urban infrastructure problems controlled by the municipal government), by the type of housing, educational measures, and by assuring the health assistance of the people affected by such diseases (availability of hospital beds, health expenditures). Pereda (2012) found out that integrated actions from local governments are needed to control the spread of the disease. In order to identify the climate impacts on dengue risk, a comparative case study research will be used, based on the comparison of cities that suffered from specific climate conditions that increased the risk of dengue with cities whose climatic conditions stayed the same. The counterfactual will be created based on the synthetic controls approach, which generates control groups as a combination of units not exposed to the intervention (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003; and extended by Abadie et al, 2010). Thus, the synthetic control is a weighted average of the available control units that sum to one. As Brazil is a wide country, and exposed to many climate patterns, there are many possibilities of gathering good control groups by using this methodology. The preliminary results suggest that the increase in temperature in temperate regions (South of the country) increase the incidence of dengue in the region. On the other hand, the increase in temperature in the tropical areas (North of the country) could diminish the disease. Therefore, due to the expected increase of temperatures in the future, the climate change might change the dengue fever distribution in the country. The study also intends to examine the public policy's role on minimizing those effects in the country, mainly focused on water supply and sanitation.
An important debate exists on whether soybean expansion in Brazil is responsible for putting more pressure on the Amazon forest or if it allows land use intensification through the recuperation of degraded pasture. In this paper, we estimate regional soybean supply own and cross price elasticity in order to better assess the possible impacts of agricultural trade liberalization in old and new soybean production basins. Applying a panel data estimation technique, we find large substitution supply elasticity between soybean and beef in Brazil Moreover, own price elasticity of soybean supply is much higher in Cerrados regions that in the South of the country. These results allow to discuss possible regional consequences of soybean trade liberalization on the Amazon forest. The current movements to promote sustainable and responsible soybean production in Brazil could certainly modify the future response of the sector to trade liberalization and its long term impacts.
Resumo O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar, mediante uma estratégia de identificação causal, se choques positivos no financiamento governamental federal em saúde primária afetam negativamente a probabilidade de uso (internação) do sistema hospitalar devido a melhorias da saúde coletiva. Usaram-se dados do Brasil que, no que diz respeito a políticas de saúde, possui um sistema de atenção básica que é universal, público e gratuito. Os resultados encontrados sugerem, de forma geral, que maiores financiamentos federais da atenção primária geraram maiores médias nesse indicador nos pequenos municípios do país. Tal resultado evidencia um importante efeito de transbordamento desse financiamento nas internações do sistema hospitalar do país, por meio de um maior acesso a estes serviços por parte da população. Porém, esses achados também evidenciam uma ineficácia desses serviços em diminuir os repasses de indivíduos ao sistema de média e alta complexidade mediante ações de saúde preventiva de doenças.
Using data from the Brazilian Labor Monthly Survey (PME/ IBGE) for the years of 2006 and 2007, the paper investigates if the wage differential by firm size in Brazil can be explained by the predictions of the Efficiency Wage Theory. It is adopted a Switching Regression Model to estimate if large size companies pay a higher wage premium for dispended labor effort, as compared to smaller enterprises. The results prove the EW predictions since they evidence positive relationships between wages and labor effort, schooling and longer job duration. However, such findings are not sufficient to explain the existence of wage differentials by firm size in the Brazilian labor market.
A partir da utilização dos microdados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF) dos biênios 1995-96 e 2002-03, o trabalho fornece evidências a respeito dos níveis e da evolução da desigualdade da distribuição dos gastos familiares per capita e da desigualdade da distribuição do consumo familiar per capita no Brasil metropolitano e a respeito da importância dos diferentes tipos de gastos familiares nas dinâmicas observadas. Os resultados, obtidos a partir de indicadores tradicionais de desigualdade e de análises de Dominância de Lorenz, apontam para importantes movimentos em termos de diminuição da desigualdade em ambos os tipos de gastos. Medida a desigualdade pelo índice de Gini, observa-se que a redução deste índice é afetada de forma significativa pelas dinâmicas dos gastos com Habitação, Higiene e Cuidados Pessoais e Vestuário, favoráveis à diminuição da desigualdade, e pelas as dinâmicas dos gastos com Educação, Saúde e Alimentação, favoráveis à desigualdade. Diferenças regionais são apontadas a partir das regiões metropolitanas de Recife e São Paulo.
T. 1: Gasto e consumo das famílias brasileiras contemporâneas. - 374 S. - ISBN 978-85-86170-85-0; T. 2: Gasto e consumo das famílias brasileiras contemporâneas. - 551 S. - ISBN 978-85-86170-85-0
O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar a elasticidade-renda para trinta e seis produtos alimentares. A base de dados utilizada é a Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares (POF) de 1995/96 do IBGE, que abarca informações extremamente detalhadas sobre o consumo alimentar das famílias das onze maiores regiões urbanas brasileiras. As variáveis utilizadas na estimação do modelo foram obtidas diretamente dos microdados dessa pesquisa. Isto permitiu que os logaritmos dos preços alimentares e do recebimento mensal familiar per capita fossem calculados diretamente das observações individualizadas e não sobre os dados agregados das classes de rendas originais da POF. A metodologia empregada foi o modelo QUAIDS. Os resultados encontrados permitem aprofundar o conhecimento sobre as diferenças do padrão de consumo entre as diversas classes de renda, assim como entre regiões tão distintas como Sudeste e Sul e o Nordeste brasileiro. Evidenciou-se a existência de insuficiência no consumo alimentar domiciliar no Brasil e que tal fato se concentra nas famílias de baixa renda, nas quais as despesas com alimentação respondem pela maior parcela do orçamento.
PurposeThis study addresses the COVID-19 infection and its relationship with the city's constructive intensity, commuting time to work and labor market dynamics during the lockdown period.Design/methodology/approachMicrodata from formal workers in Recife was used to adjust a probability model for disease contraction.FindingsThe authors' results indicate that greater distance to employment increases the probability of infection. The same applies to constructive intensity, suggesting that residences in denser areas, such as apartments in buildings, condominiums and informal settlements, elevate the chances of contracting the disease. It is also observed that formal workers with completed higher education have lower infection risks, while healthcare professionals on the frontlines of combating the disease face higher risks than others. The lockdown effectively reduced contagion by limiting people's mobility during the specified period.Research limitations/implicationsThe research shows important causal relationships, making it possible to think about public policies for the health of individuals both when commuting to work and in living conditions, aiming to control contagion by COVID-19.Practical implicationsThe lockdown effectively reduced contagion by limiting people's mobility during the specified period.Social implicationsIt is also observed that formal workers with completed higher education have lower infection risks, while healthcare professionals on the frontlines of combating the disease face higher risks than others.Originality/valueThe authors identified positive and significant relationships between these urban characteristics and increased contagion, controlling for neighborhood, individual characteristics, comorbidities, occupations and economic activities.
